FUKUDA MAKES HIS MOVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 002443 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2026 TAGS: PGOV PREL CH JA SUBJECT: FUKUDA MAKES HIS MOVE TOKYO 00002443 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Joe Donovan. Reason: 1.4 (b)(d) . ¶1. (C) Summary. Former Chief Cabinet Secretary (CCS) Yasuo Fukuda is very slowly inching up in the public opinion polls on current CCS Shinzo Abe, the front-runner to replace PM Koizumi in September's LDP presidential election. While Fukuda, like Abe, is not a declared candidate, his recent words and actions indicate that he is serious about contending. Fukuda is differentiating himself from Abe by stressing his experience and by staking out a more conciliatory position toward Japan's neighbors, particularly China. In a recent TV interview, he opposed prime ministerial visits to Yasukuni Shrine and stressed that improved relations between Japan and its Asian neighbors would contribute to stronger U.S.-Japan ties. Senior LDP faction leaders, notably Yoshiro Mori, appear to be leaning towards Fukuda, but overall Abe,s support among LDP Diet members remains high. End summary. ¶2. (C) Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda is making his move in his undeclared run for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP),s presidency, according to Japan,s political and media observers. Under Japan,s parliamentary system, the winner of the LDP,s September presidential election will automatically become the next Prime Minister. Fukuda has emerged in the polls as a PM candidate along with three younger and politically less experienced candidates - Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe who is in the lead, Foreign Minister Taro Aso and Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki. According to the April Yomiuri poll, Abe remains far in front with 44.0 %, thought he dropped 1% over the previous month. Fukuda picked up 3%, moving from 10% to 13%. Aso and Tanigaki continued to trail far behind with 5% (down 1%) and 1% (down 1%),respectively. Call for a New Asia Policy -------------- ¶3. (C) Fukuda is now visiting the Middle East and will be in the United States from May 10, starting with a personal visit with ex-Ambassador Baker and then moving on to Washington. These high-profile trips, combined with recent policy statements, clearly signal his intent to run for the LDP presidency, local observers believe. On April 25, Fukuda, son of the late Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda, made a major policy speech in which he unveiled plans to develop a new Asia policy based on his father's "Fukuda doctrine." (Note: Proposed in 1977, the Fukuda Doctrine was a response to the anti-Japan demonstrations that dogged PM Tanaka,s Southeast Asia tour in January 1974 and introduced a kinder, gentler approach to the ASEAN countries. Subsequent prime ministers expanded the policy to China and South Korea.) Japan, Fukuda argued, needs a new policy in order to repair Japan,s ties with other Asian nations, especially China and the ROK. Fukuda explained that his "new" Fukuda doctrine would build on the sincere "heart to heart" principle of his father,s doctrine, while taking into account the rise of China and the emerging East Asia community. Fukuda also strongly criticized PM Koizumi's repeated visits to Yasukuni Shrine, calling them "simply wrong." Separately, in an April 30 NHK-TV appearance, Fukuda explicitly stated that Japan,s next prime minister should not visit Yasukuni and underscored that that rebuilding ties with Asia would help strengthen U.S.-Japan relations. Pursuing better relations with Asia should be an urgent task. Bio note -------------- ¶4. (C) Rep. Fukuda, now 69 year-old, is a LDP 6th term Mori faction member representing Gunma 4th district. He has a distinguished political pedigree, being the son of former Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda, for whom PM Koizumi served as a secretary before becoming a politician. A graduate of the SIPDIS Waseda University, Fukuda worked for the Maruzen Oil Inc. for 17 years before becoming his father's secretary. After learning the ropes in that job for about a decade, the younger Fukuda entered the political fray rather late in life -- at the age of 54 -- by running and winning in his father's district. ¶5. (C) A member of a well-respected political family, Fukuda's political career progressed fairly smoothly; he was placed in key party and Cabinet posts earlier than others of similar Diet experience. Fukuda, known for his gruff personality and business-like manner, was not well known, TOKYO 00002443 002 OF 002 however, until he was picked as Chief Cabinet Secretary in 2000 by Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori to replace Rep. Hidenao Nakagawa, who was forced out of the office for a scandal. He expanded his influence as CCS under the Koizumi Cabinet by effectively utilizing his Diet and bureaucratic networks, and quickly become the "must-see person" in the Prime Minister's office for all major policy decisions. As CCS, he also headed a panel to explore possible war memorial alternatives to Yasukuni Shrine. In May 2004 Fukuda abruptly announced his resignation as CCS, citing public criticism for his non-payment into the national pension system. The media and our political contacts, however, believe the real reason for his step-down was his fundamental disagreement with PM Koizumi over Asia policy, including the PM's first surprise visit to the Pyongyang, as well as personal friction with then-Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe and the PM's executive assistant Isao Iijima. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Still early in the race, Fukuda has latched on to foreign policy differences with PM Koizumi and CCS Abe to distinguish himself from the rest of the pack. Fukuda is a strong supporter of the U.S.-Japan alliance but believes that the alliance is weakened by Japan,s strained relations with its neighbors. Senior LDP faction leaders, notably Yoshiro Mori, appear to be leaning towards Fukuda, but overall Abe,s support among LDP Diet members remains high. DONOVAN