JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 04/13/06

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 TOKYO 002011 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 04/13/06 Index: (1) Fuji-Sankei poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, new DPJ leadership under Ichiro Ozawa, post-Koizumi race, SDF Iraq deployment (2) Ozawa set to spearhead campaigning for 2007 Upper House election aimed at sweeping victory in single-seat constituencies (3) Restart of Minshuto: Ozawa underscores confrontational stance toward LDP, makes contact with LDP-support groups (4) Japanese politicians need greater strategic education (5) At long last, political situation is returning to normal; Cleaning up the mess left behind by five years of sloppy Koizumi politics a serious challenge ARTICLES: (1) Fuji-Sankei poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, new DPJ leadership under Ichiro Ozawa, post-Koizumi race, SDF Iraq deployment SANKEI (Page 5) (Abridged) April 11, 2006 Questions & Answers (Figures shown in percentage.) Q: Do you support the Koizumi cabinet? Yes 48.8 (56.9) No 35.5 (29.6) Don't know (D/K) + Can't say which (CSW) 15.8 (13.6) Q: Which political party do you support? Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 42.1 (43.6) Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 17.4 (18.1) New Komeito (NK) 3.5 (4.2) Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 2.9 (3.1) Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1.9 (2.0) People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0.2 (0.6) New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0.1 (0.4) New Party Daichi (NPD or Shinto Daichi) 0 (0.3) Other answers (O/A) 1.1 (0.7) None 27.7 (24.3) D/K + Can't say (CS) 3.2 (3.0) Q: The DPJ has now elected Ichiro Ozawa as its new leader ;following his predecessor's resignation over the fake email fiasco. Is the party's settlement of the problem convincing? Yes 25.5 No 58.3 D/K+CSW 16.3 Q: Do you think the DPJ under Ozawa is competent enough to take office? Yes 43.8 TOKYO 00002011 002 OF 010 No 38.4 D/K+CSW 17.9 Q: What would you like Ozawa to do first? Pursue suspicions over the government, ruling parties 18.4 Cross words with the government, ruling parties 24.0 Strengthen the DPJ's unity 29.0 O/A 14.3 D/K + nothing 14.4 Q: Who do you think is most appropriate for post-Koizumi leadership? Taro Aso 5.6 (7.2) Shinzo ABE 47.0 (50.6) Sadakazu Tanigaki 3.3 (3.2) Yasuo Fukuda 18.3 (12.1) Heizo Takenaka 2.4 (5.6) Taku Yamasaki 1.2 (---) O/A 8.5 (---) D/K + inappropriate 13.9 (18.9) Q: Who do you think is most appropriate for prime minister among Abe, Fukuda, and Ozawa? Abe 48.7 Fukuda 19.4 Ozawa 14.1 D/K + inappropriate 18.0 Q: Do you think the DPJ under Ozawa will affect the post-Koizumi race? Yes 54.3 No 36.0 D/K+CSW 9.8 Q: What's your concern in the post-Koizumi race? Foreign, security policies 20.5 Economic, financial policies 18.5 Administrative, fiscal reforms 13.3 Pensions, other social security issues 26.7 Constitutional issues 3.1 Education, low birthrate 7.7 O/A 2.9 D/K+CS 7.5 Q: Do you think the next prime minister should visit Yasukuni Shrine? Yes 38.0 No 43.6 D/K+CSW 18.5 Q: Do you think the Diet should pass national referendum legislation at the current session for amendments to the Constitution of Japan? Yes 38.1 No 36.5 TOKYO 00002011 003 OF 010 D/K+CSW 25.5 Q: Do you think Japan should withdraw its ground troops from Iraq in the first half of this year? Yes 75.8 No 14.3 D/K+CSW 10.0 (Note) Parentheses denote the results of the last survey conducted in November last year. Polling methodology: The survey was conducted by the Sankei Shimbun and Fuji News Network (FNN) on April 8-9 over the telephone on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. For the survey, a total of 2,000 persons were sampled from among males and females, aged 20 and over, across the nation. (2) Ozawa set to spearhead campaigning for 2007 Upper House election aimed at sweeping victory in single-seat constituencies ASAHI (Page 4) (Abridged slightly) April 12, 2006 Campaigning for the House of Representatives by-election in Chiba Constituency No. 7 kicked off yesterday as if to test Minshuto's (Democratic Party of Japan) recovery from the recent e-mail fiasco. Newly elected Minshuto President Ichiro Ozawa's mind is already set on the Upper House election next summer. His party suffered a humiliating setback in single-seat constituencies in the election five years ago. Determined to win all the single- seat constituencies up for election next summer to force the ruling coalition into a minority, Ozawa is spearheading the election campaign that started yesterday. In contrast, Liberal Democratic Party Upper House executives look somewhat worried, as the number of dependable local assemblymen will decrease due to municipal mergers. They also fear possible negative repercussions from postal reform. On the evening of April 10, Ozawa visited the chiefs and deputy chiefs of the two houses of the Diet and leaders of other parties to give his greetings as the new Minshuto president. He seems to have done so for the sake of the Upper House election. Ozawa inquired with People's New Party Secretary General Hisaoki Kamei about the aging population of his hometown of Masuda City, a single-seat constituency in Shimane Prefecture. To leaders of the Social Democratic Party, Ozawa said, "We must cooperate because we have the same adversary." Asked by Upper House Vice President Giichi Tsunoda about next year's election, Ozawa crisply said, "It (achieving a victory in the Upper House election) is my biggest goal." Shortly after assuming office, Ozawa declared that he would take charge of election campaigning. In the first post-election meeting with Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama and Deputy President Naoto Kan on the afternoon of April 8, Ozawa said, "I am ready to commit myself to the Upper House election." Since then, he has repeatedly underscored the importance of single-seat constituencies. Next summer, the political parties will vie for the seats that TOKYO 00002011 004 OF 010 were up for election in 2001, when the ruling coalition achieved an overwhelming victory owing to the "Koizumi boom." In that election, the LDP won 66 seats, the New Komeito 13, and Minshuto ¶31. As far as single-seat constituencies were concerned, Minshuto won only two out of 27. Moreover, LDP candidates dominated in Tochigi and Gunma, where only one seat each will be up for grabs in the next election as a result of correcting the imbalance in the weight of votes in single-seat constituencies. A mid-level Minshuto member fears that if Ozawa tries to field candidates close to him, the party might break up. Some others think they have no other option but to rely on Ozawa at a time like this when the party has yet to determine who will run in 21 constituencies out of the 25 that are devoid of Minshuto incumbents due partly to the e-mail flop. In many single-seat constituencies, Minshuto's organizational strength is weak. Ozawa intends to travel across the nation to meet local leaders in order to find promising candidates and directly teach them how to prepare themselves for elections. Ozawa's policies are also focused on the many single-seat constituencies centered on small local cities and farming villages. One of Ozawa's campaign pledges for the Minshuto presidency was making Japan into a nation that values the circumstances and character of local areas. He also indicated on a TV-Asahi program that the government should transfer the authority and financial resources to build roads to local governments. He also called for a system to directly provide farmers with subsidies. LDP on alert against Ozawa-led Minshuto in wake of postal privatization At a Tokyo restaurant on the night of April 10, Toranosuke Katayama, secretary general of the LDP caucus in the Upper House, gave a pep talk to the first-term LDP Upper House members who will face the election next summer. The LDP also thinks single-seat constituencies hold the key. The party achieved an overwhelming victory in the election five years ago. But in the 2004 election, the party led by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary SHINZO ABE won only 14 seats out of 27 in the single-seat constituencies. In total, Minshuto won more seats than the LDP. Speeches by Mikio Aoki, chairman of the LDP's Upper House caucus, have been tinged with a sense of urgency: "Many municipalities will have been merged by next April. Consequently the number of assemblymen, who have been our strong supporters, will decrease by 17,000." In contrast to Minshuto, the LDP has a large number of local assemblymen who have served as "front-line troops" in national elections. Mergers have been rampant among thinly populated single-seat constituencies. In addition, the nation will have an Upper House election and unified local elections next year, a combination that occurs once every 12 years. This may result in "election fatigue" LDP executives also fear a rebound from last year's Lower House election, in which the ruling coalition achieved a landslide TOKYO 00002011 005 OF 010 victory. Aoki has urged LDP members to work harder for the upcoming election. Ozawa, who is believed to know the LDP's election tactics inside and out, is a threat to the ruling coalition. An LDP Upper House executive noted: "Minshuto may describe next year's Upper House election in simple language, such as the last chance to install a two-party system. Asking people whether or not to change the government would be as effective as asking for a yes-no decision on postal privatization." Constituencies that split last over postal privatization are a source of concern for the LDP. A number of LDP members are taking the view that Ozawa will zero in on the LDP's weaknesses by disregarding unpromising districts. (3) Restart of Minshuto: Ozawa underscores confrontational stance toward LDP, makes contact with LDP-support groups NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Slightly abridged) April 12, 2006 The new leadership of the Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) was officially launched yesterday. New leader Ichiro Ozawa is willing to demonstrate his own policy identity in order to rebuild his party. For the upcoming April 23 by-election in Chiba's 7th District for the House of Representatives, the opposition party plans to send all its members to the district to support the Minshuto-endorsed candidate. Some support groups for the Liberal Democratic Party have been upset with the aftermath of a series of Koizumi reforms. In a move to drive them out of the LDP, Ozawa has visited the offices of such groups. Ozawa had Acting President Naoto Kan deliver the first campaign speech on April 11 and instructed all other members to canvass the electoral district in Chiba. Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama will also visit the constituency over the weekend to give a vote- getting speech. A party official responsible for election campaigning commented: "We want Mr. Ozawa also to go to the electoral district at the most effective timing." The official wants to see Ozawa appear on the main stage and spotlighted as "a transformed Ozawa." In a party executive meeting yesterday, an agreement was reached to call on the ruling coalition to hold party head talks at an early date, with the aim of stage-managing, prior to the by- election, a scene in which Prime Minister Koizumi and Ozawa face off in a debate. "Covert action" is Ozawa's favorite approach. He secretly visited the office of the Japan War Bereaved Association in Kudan, Tokyo, yesterday. Earlier, he also visited the offices of the Japan Dental Association and the Japan Pharmaceutical Association. They are all influential LDP-support groups, with which Ozawa also had much to do when he was still an influential LDP member. In an executive board meeting last evening, the participants decided to disband the Comprehensive Policy Planning Conference set up by former head Seiji Maehara as a Minshuto-version of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy. This is part of efforts to bid farewell to the "Maehara imprint." Junior members have not reacted to such moves, one member saying: "Local residents' TOKYO 00002011 006 OF 010 responses to Mr. Ozawa were favorable." Kan, who was defeated in the presidential race, has already said: "I hope an Ozawa administration will be formed." Many persons predict that in the regular Minshuto presidential election in September, Ozawa will be reelected without a vote. Prime minister: "Mr. Ozawa may approach LDP to form coalition" Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi held an informal meeting with Chief Cabinet Secretary SHINZO Abe, House of Councillors Steering Committee Chairman Kensei Mizote, and others in Tokyo yesterday. In reference to new Minshuto head Ichiro Ozawa, the prime minister indicated his view that Ozawa will make a pitch to the LDP to form a conservative-conservative alliance. He said: "(Ozawa) left the LDP because he could not become prime minister. He supposedly cannot be satisfied with the top post of Minshuto. Once he is reelected in the September election, he may cut his ties with those affiliated with the former Socialist Party and come closer to the LDP with the aim of forming a coalition." In 1999, Jiyuto (Liberal Party) under the lead of Ozawa formed a conservative-conservative alliance with the LDP. (4) Japanese politicians need greater strategic education SANKEI (Page 7) (Full) April 9, 2006 Tadae Takubo, guest professor, Kyorin University It is no use relying on government offices, which are busy with daily tasks. It is meaningless to lecture the majority of politicians, who focus on how to win the next election rather than the country's future. I want politicians who have the backbone to bear responsibility for national interests to engage in realism as far as foreign and defense policies. In opposition to realism, liberal politics, which places importance on transnational relations, has spread throughout the world since the 1970s. It is, however, uncertain when the world will attach emphasis to transnational relations. Power politics has become the norm, especially among Japan's neighbors. According to the Sankei Shimbun's morning edition on April 2, when Chinese President Hu Jintao began to criticize Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine before seven Japanese delegates to China headed by former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, on March 31 at the Great Hall of the People, a dead silence fell over the hall. Mr. Hashimoto and other delegation members looked somewhat gaunt on TV. They reminded me of barbarians getting down on their knees before China's emperor. I have no intention to criticize those Japanese delegates. Among them, there are politicians who have called for the separate enshrinement of Class-A war criminals at Yasukuni Shrine and construction of a new war memorial facility, lamenting the present situation where the Chinese leader has refused to hold a summit with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Those politicians have been trying to have Mr. Koizumi give up visiting the Shinto shrine. TOKYO 00002011 007 OF 010 There are many arguments supporting those who don't want to think that they are falling on their knees to China. One argument is that the Chinese government of President Hu Jintao has no choice but to take a tough stance against Japan since it has been suffering from pressure from hard-liners in China. That may be true, but that is a trick for which Mr. Nakasone once fell. Ironically, China's foreign policy is laudable. China is well aware of the weakness of democratic countries. There may be the only one commander in China. The Chinese commander knows well who in political, business, and bureaucratic circles and the press have close ties to Beijing and who does not. The commander also fully understands those people's influential power in Japan. China has steadily taken every possible means to sow discord among Japanese leaders and to isolate Prime Minister Koizumi, Chief Cabinet Secretary SHINZO Abe, and Foreign Minister Taro Aso in the country. The Chinese commander makes plans regarding whom, when, and where to invite to meet with what level Chinese leaders. Therefore, Japan's diplomacy based on goodwill does not work toward China. Japan's failure last year in its bid for a permanent United Nations Security Council seat was a major foreign policy failure. Although Japanese officials concerned explained in detail about the government's strategy in its push for a UNSC seat, I could see no politicians capable of becoming a real player in the UN even if Japan were to obtain a UNSC seat. In contrast, China has steadily boosted its military strength. It took advantage of anti-Japanese demonstrations last year in China as a means of preventing Japan from becoming a permanent UNSC member. If Japanese politicians understood China's strategy, they would have read the communist country's hidden motive. I think the politicians who cannot say that China is a threat are daunted. About two years ago, Harvard University Prof. Joseph Nye explained in Foreign Affairs the need for soft power to attract other countries with culture and political vision rather than hard power. Leaders in every sector of society often talk about Prof. Nye's advocacy of soft power. Prof. Nye in his argument, however, reproved the United States, which spends more money on its military than all other countries combined. It is odd for Japan, an ordinary democratic country that even does not have its own military, to assert such a theory. US President George W. Bush was fond of reading Theodore Roosevelt's biography when he first assumed office. Referring recently to Jung Chan's book MAO: The Untold Story at a press conference, the president talked about how China's history deceived the rest of the world and its cruelty. US President Richard Nixon was absorbed in reading English statesman Benjamin Disraeli's critical biography. It is widely known that Chinese President Deng Xiaoping's favorite book was The Art of War. I don't know what Japanese politicians are doing to enhance their strategic education. (5) At long last, political situation is returning to normal; TOKYO 00002011 008 OF 010 Cleaning up the mess left behind by five years of sloppy Koizumi politics a serious challenge NIKKAN GENDAI (Pp.1-2) (Full) April 13, 2006 Minshuto's (Democratic Party of Japan) installment of Ozawa as its president, Kan as his deputy, and Hatoyama as secretary general upset the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Koizumi, Takebe, and Abe, who have been slackening off lately. Ichiro Ozawa's decision to take center stage as Minshuto president with an eye on Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who is scheduled to step down in six months, carries great significance. Both the LDP and Minshuto seem to share the view that Japan, having been destroyed by the sham Koizumi reform drive, needs drastic change and reform for its revival. Ichiro Ozawa's assumption of office as Minshuto president has turned around the atmosphere surrounding the political world. Minshuto, which had been dispirited due to the e-mail fiasco, has now come back to life, and the haughty LDP has been rattled. The outcome of the April 23 House of Representatives by-election in Chiba Constituency No. 7 is unpredictable. The LDP may not be able to achieve an overwhelming victory, as planned. Political affairs commentator Harumi Arima noted: "The LDP is upset by the current situation of the Chiba by- election. Contrary to the LDP's optimistic projection that its candidate will win the election by a double-digit margin, the race is now a dead heat. According to one survey, the difference between the two camps is only several points. To Prime Minister Koizumi, the Chiba by-election will be his last national election in office. The LDP leadership is highly alarmed at the race, because a defeat at this point could be taken as a rejection of the five years of Koizumi-style politics. Secretary General Takebe has been visiting Chiba almost daily to brace the LDP camp." Against all odds, Minshuto is united under Ozawa. And that, too, was a miscalculation of the LDP. The LDP had expected that Minshuto would get into trouble in selecting a new lineup of party executives under Ichiro Ozawa, the "destroyer." Surprisingly, Ozawa has decided to keep the Maehara structure intact, gaining momentum. In facing Minshuto's Ozawa-Kan-Hatoyama trio, the LDP's Koizumi- Takebe-Abe leadership is visibly restless. Ozawa set to destroy LDP The Chiba by-election is not the only factor that is making the LDP jittery. What the LDP really fears is Ozawa's steps to split up the LDP to set off political realignment. Ozawa has already begun making strategic moves to that end. For instance, he has repeatedly attacked a growing social divide and Asia policy representing the dark side of Koizumi-style politics. TOKYO 00002011 009 OF 010 Ozawa harshly criticized Koizumi's advocacy of market forces, saying: "Freedom is not about benefiting only a handful of winners. Minshuto's goal is to realize a society where workers' efforts are rewarded in a fair manner." In addition, with Koizumi's failed Asia policy in mind, Ozawa explicitly said, "I will devote my efforts to advance friendly relations between Japan and South Korea." The target of this statement is clear. Political affairs commentator Asao Yamaguchi took this view: "Such statements intended to rattle the LDP are so characteristic of Ozawa, an experienced statesman. A 'growing social divide' and 'isolation in Asia' are debatable themes for the LDP as well. They are turning into symbols of discontent with Koizumi. Ozawa is trying to set them on fire. He not only rapped Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine but also declared that Class-A war criminals must not be enshrined at Yasukuni. That was truly significant. Koizumi hates Yasukuni being turned into a campaign issue for the LDP presidency. Now that Ozawa has touched on it, it inevitably will. It would enliven the pro-China group aiming to tighten the noose around Koizumi and Abe. Ozawa might end up splitting up the LDP." Continued criticism of a "growing social disparity" and "Asia policy" would eventually make happy-go-lucky Koizumi supporters realize the deceit of Koizumi politics. This would result in a dip in Koizumi's support rating, which would in turn embolden the anti-Koizumi group. The LDP is clearly tinged with polarizing overtones. The question is when Ozawa will pull the trigger to destroy the LDP for another round of political realignment. Diet nomination in September of Yasuo Fukuda as prime minister would shake political community Ozawa will unmistakably try to set off political realignment timed with the LDP presidential election in September. Minshuto Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Kozo Watanabe predicted, "Political realignment will occur once Koizumi steps down as prime minister." Koizumi also said alarmingly, "Mr. Ozawa could attempt to launch a grand coalition." Harumi Arima also noted: "Ozawa is now 63. Considering his age, Ozawa cannot wait for next summer's Upper House election or the next general election, which might not occur during his tenure of office, to realize the political realignment of his dreams. It is certain that he will aim at taking the LDP apart and rebuilding it from scratch on the occasion of the September presidential election. I think Ozawa envisages making former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda the LDP's new president. If ABE was picked as Koizumi's successor, Ozawa could go ahead with the super-extraordinary move of nominating Fukuda in the Diet nomination of the prime minister." In that case, Minshuto also will unavoidably split up, and the group of Minshuto members from the Matsushita Institute of Government and Management, including former president Seiji Maehara, would be expected to race immediately to the Koizumi-Abe duo. TOKYO 00002011 010 OF 010 The political community is likely to experience a major shockwave in September or later over whether or not to keep the Koizumi policy line in place. Kyushu University Professor Emeritus Fumio Saito commented: "The public would welcome it. Originally, the current Diet session's theme was to sum up the five years of Koizumi politics. But that has not been discussed at all because of the e-mail hullabaloo. It's not bad for that theme to become a point of contention owing to the LDP presidential race and the Diet nomination of the prime minister. A social disparity and deadlocked policy toward East Asia resulting from Koizumi politics are particularly serious problems for the public as well. Should Japan go along with Koizumi politics' law of the jungle and anti-Asia policy, or put the brakes on them? Real political realignment would follow the disintegration of the LDP over those factors." Ozawa's assumption of office as Minshuto president is likely to continue shaking the political world violently. SCHIEFFER