DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 04/03/06

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 TOKYO 001769

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST
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ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 04/03/06


INDEX:

(1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, post-Koizumi
race, DPJ presidential election

(2) Spot poll on DPJ head's resignation

(3) Can Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) make a fresh start?
Party members now focus their attention on Ozawa, gauging the
degree of his seriousness about running for the party
presidential race

(4) Editorial: What is Japan's fair share in the cost of
relocating US Marines from Okinawa?

ARTICLES:

(1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, post-Koizumi
race, DPJ presidential election

MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full)
April 3, 2006

Questions & Answers
(T = total; P = previous; M = male; F = female)

Q: Do you support the Koizumi cabinet?

T P M F
Yes 48 (48) 48 47
No 36 (40) 40 33
Not interested 15 (10) 11 18

Q: (Only for those who answered "yes" to the above question) Why?

T P M F
Because the prime minister is from the Liberal Democratic Party
11 (5) 11 12
Because something can be expected of Prime Minister Koizumi's
leadership
28 (29) 27 29
Because new policy measures can be expected
17 (17) 19 16
Because the nature of politics is likely to change
41 (46) 42 40

Q: (Only for those who answered "no" to the above question) Why?

T P M F
Because the prime minister is from the Liberal Democratic Party
11 (13) 0 12
Because the prime minister compromises too much with the ruling
parties
22 (21) 25 20
Because the nation's economic recovery is slow
46 (29) 40 51
Because the prime minister is reluctant to take action against
political scandals
15 (25) 19 10

Q: Which political party do you support?

T P M F

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Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)
33 (31) 33 33
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto)
12 (20) 14 10
New Komeito (NK)
3 (4) 3 4
Japanese Communist Party (JCP)
3 (4) 3 3
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto)
3 (2) 1 4
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto)
0 (0) 1 0
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon)
0 (0) 1 0
Other parties
1 (1) 2 0
None
43 (36) 42 45

Q: Prime Minister Koizumi will not run in the LDP's presidential
election set for this September and will step down. Who do you
think is appropriate for the next prime minister?

T M F
Taro Aso 3 5 2
Shinzo Abe 36 32 40
Heizo Takenaka 3 4 2
Sadakazu Tanigaki 1 2 1
Yasuo Fukuda 18 23 13
Taku Yamasaki 1 2 1
Not on the list 28 28 27


Q: DPJ President Seiji Maehara has clarified his intention to
resign. Who do you think is appropriate for the next DPJ
president?

T M F
Katsuya Okada 7 6 7
Ichiro Ozawa 25 35 17
Yukio Edano 2 2 1
Naoto Kan 17 19 16
Yukio Hatoyama 9 8 9
Kozo Watanabe 4 5 3
Not on the list 26 20 30

Q: Do you think the DPJ is competent enough to take office?

T M F
Yes 21 21 21
No 69 73 66

(Note) Figures shown in percentage, rounded off. "0" indicates
that the figure was below 0.5%. "No answer" omitted. Parentheses
denote the results of the last survey conducted Feb. 10-11.

Polling methodology: The survey was conducted Feb. 10-11 over the
telephone with the aim of calling a total of 1,000 voters across
the nation on a computer-aided random digit sampling (RDS) basis.
Answers were obtained from 1,092 persons.

(2) Spot poll on DPJ head's resignation


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YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full)
April 3, 2006

Questions & Answers
(Figures shown in percentage.)

Q: Do you support the Koizumi cabinet?

Yes 56.8
No 34.3
Other answers (O/A) 2.7
No answer (N/A) 6.1

Q: Which political party do you support now?

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 44.0
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 12.4
New Komeito (NK) 3.5
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 2.3
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 0.8
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0.1
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) ---
Other political parties ---
None 34.6
N/A 2.3

Q: The DPJ's Maehara resigned on March 31 as his party's
president to take responsibility for the fake email fiasco. Do
you think it's only natural for him to resign as his party's
president? Do you think it's unavoidable, or do you otherwise
think he didn't have to?

It's only natural 38.2
It's unavoidable 41.3
He didn't have to resign 14.7
N/A 5.8

Q: The DPJ's lawmaker Nagata, who took up the fake email problem
in the Diet, will now resign his Diet seat. Do you think it's
only natural? Do you think it's unavoidable, or do you otherwise
think he doesn't have to?

It's only natural 66.2
It's unavoidable 24.7
He doesn't have to resign 5.7
N/A 3.4

Q: The DPJ has now settled the fake email problem. Is it
convincing to you?

Yes 40.1
No 48.7
N/A 11.3

Q: Who do you think is most appropriate among the following nine
persons to head the DPJ as its next president? Pick only one, if
any.

Yukio Edano 1.1
Katsuya Okada 5.4
Ichiro Ozawa 24.2
Takashi Kawamura 4.2
Naoto Kan 19.3

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Yoshihiko Noda 1.2
Yukio Hatoyama 10.4
Kazuhiro Haraguchi 3.2
Kozo Watanabe 6.3
Other persons 0.5
Not on the list 9.4
N/A 14.7

Q: Do you think the DPJ is competent enough to take office?

Yes 22.0
No 67.1
N/A 10.9

Polling methodology: The survey was conducted April 1-2 over the
telephone on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. A
total of 1,786 households with one or more voters were sampled,
and valid answers were obtained from 1,091 persons (61.1%).

(3) Can Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) make a fresh start?
Party members now focus their attention on Ozawa, gauging the
degree of his seriousness about running for the party
presidential race

NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full)
April 3, 2006

Ichiro Ozawa has revealed his enthusiasm for succeeding Maehara
as head of the largest opposition party Minshuto. He will hold a
press conference today. Whether he will commit himself to running
is drawing attention. Local party members are raising
expectations for him, anticipating that more conservative votes
will be able to be garnered under his leadership. But if he
assumes a half-hearted attitude as seen in past party
presidential elections, Ozawa could end up allowing his
supporters to turn around and back Naoto Kan instead.

"Mr. Ozawa hasn't ever assumed the post of party president. I'd
like to see him exhibit his political ability as president
instead of vice president." One junior lawmaker elected from a
constituency in the Chugoku Region in western Japan yesterday
heard this sort of call for Ozawa to lead the party coming from
local supporters of Ozawa one after the other. A senior member of
the party's campaign staff for the upcoming Lower House by-
election slated for April 23 in the Chiba No. 7 constituency
firmly said, "In terms of a strategy to ensure our victory in the
election, no one but Mr. Ozawa would be fit for the post of party
head."

Analyzing the present mood in the party, a veteran lawmaker
remarked: "If Mr. Ozawa clearly indicated his willingness today
to run in the party presidential race, a mood ensuring his
victory would grow stronger." But many in the Ozawa group share
the view that Ozawa would neither declare his candidacy nor
dismiss the option of running for the election.

When Kan resigned as party head to take responsibility for his
failure to pay pension premiums in May 2004, Ozawa was asked to
succeed him as party head, but he insisted on unanimous support
from party members to the last moment. If Ozawa now again
indicates reluctance to lead the party, he would end up
disappointing the party members. Some would complain that his
goal is simply to get the post of secretary general.

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Meanwhile, Kan is likely to make a big scene of his showdown with
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi at a Lower House Administrative
Reform Special Committee session today. Kan's group intends to
determine his response to the party election after seeing how the
party members will respond to Ozawa's press conference today. But
a junior lawmaker of the group aggressively insists: "(Mr. Kan)
should come forward as candidate even though his defeat is
certain."

Behind this aggressiveness is the calculation that if Ozawa
showed ambiguity, the chance of Kan being elected as party head
would grow. For the stable operation of the party, the party
leadership needs cooperation from the Kan group. Heeding this,
the group also expects Kan to grab the post of secretary general
after finishing as runner-up.

There could be a backlash among young lawmakers who had until
recently supported Seiji Maehara as party head if the
presidential election were contested only by Mr. Ozawa and Mr.
Kan, seeing it as no more than a rigged election. They are
looking for ways to back another candidate.

(4) Editorial: What is Japan's fair share in the cost of
relocating US Marines from Okinawa?

YOMIURI (Page 3) (Full)

How should Japan and the United States split the bill for the
planned transfer of 8,000 US Marines from Okinawa Prefecture to
Guam?

Senior foreign and defense officials of the two countries are
scheduled to start talks in Washington tomorrow to make final
arrangements on the planned relocation.

In talks with the US, Tokyo has mainly sought to maintain the
deterrence of US forces in Japan and reduce the burdens on
municipalities hosting US bases.

The transfer of US Marines to Guam is expected to be a great
opportunity to reduce the excess burden on Okinawa. There is
every reason for Japan to pay its fair share of the cost.

About 17,000 US Marines and their families will leave for Guam,
where there is no housing or infrastructure for them.

According to a US estimate, the relocation will cost about 10
billion dollars, including expenditures for building headquarters
facilities, housing, and necessary roads. This means the total
cost would exceed 1 trillion yen. Washington has asked Tokyo to
pay 75% of the bill.

The United States has defended its demand, saying that the
planned transfer is a response to Japan's request for a reduced
US military presence in Okinawa and that Japan's financial
contribution is essential for realizing a quick transfer. The US
has also insisted that a portion of US defense spending has been
used for the defense of Japan.

In repositioning its forces, the US regards Guam as an important
strategic stronghold in the Asia-Pacific region. The plan to
transfer US Marine Corps headquarters personnel and logistic

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support troops to Guam constitutes part of the US global military
strategy.

But Washington's request for Japan to bear 75% of the cost seems
out of proportion. Tokyo has no reason to accept the one-sided
demand from Washington.

Japan has proposed covering part of the bill by extending loans
for the construction of housing for US Marines and their families
and other facilities. Foreign Minister Taro Aso said: "I would
like to keep Japan's share to less than 50%. There is a limit to
what the government can afford to pay."

Japan has no reason to pay for the construction of facilities
unrelated to the transfer of US Marines. The government should
urge Washington to clarify a basis for its estimate.

For years, Japan has paid about 230 billion yen annually in host
nation support (HNS),which is commonly called the "sympathy
budget" in Japan.

The transfer of US Marines is certain to reduce Japan's HNS.
However, given Japan's tight financial situation, the relocation
plan must be truly convincing in order to use taxpayer money to
build US military facilities.

Earlier, the government said Tokyo and Washington would draw up a
final report on US force realignment by the end of March, but
they failed to meet the deadline.

The cost of relocating US Marines to Guam is not the only thorny
issue. Talks between the government and local communities on a
number of issues, including a plan to relocate the US Marine
Corps' Futenma Air Station, have run into snags.

It is Japan's responsibility to step up efforts to convince local
residents to swiftly reach agreement.

DONOVAN