DPJ LEADERSHIP RESIGNS

UNCLAS TOKYO 001734 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV JA SUBJECT: DPJ LEADERSHIP RESIGNS ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Seiji Maehara and DPJ Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama announced their resignations on March 31. This surprise move caught DPJ staffers flatfooted. Maehara and Hatoyama's decision was in response to the ongoing turmoil caused by a DPJ member's use of a fake e-mail to accuse Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Takebe's son of taking money from former Livedoor chairman, Takafumi Horie. It is unclear who will succeed Maehara. The pool of candidates includes Naoto Kan, Kozo Watanabe, Yukio Hatoyama and Ichiro Ozawa, with Ozawa and Kan seeming to be frontrunners at this point. End Summary. Abrupt Resignation -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In a surprise move, Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Seiji Maehara and DPJ Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama announced their resignations on March 31. The announcement caught DPJ staffers flatfooted. Midway through a cherry blossom party at the British Embassy also attended by Embassy political officers, four DPJ staffers rushed back to the office to deal with the new development. The staffers said, before departing, that they had heard that Maehara might announce his resignation on a television news program at noon. ¶3. (SBU) The Maehara and Hatoyama resignations came after weeks of turmoil caused by the "e-mail scandal." Junior lower house lawmaker Hisayasu Nagata in mid-February accused Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Tsutomu Takebe's son of having accepted 30 million yen from the disgraced and jailed former chairman of Livedoor, Takafumi Horie. As evidence, Nagata presented an e-mail that seemed to come from Horie ordering the money transfer. The e-mail, which turned out to be a fake, served to reverse the DPJ's growing momentum in the Diet. For the last several weeks, the DPJ has been on the defensive in Diet meetings and in the media. Even before the resignation announcement, every DPJ staffer we spoke with was pessimistic and resigned to the criticism from the ruling coalition and media. One DPJ staffer, speaking frankly, shared her opinion that the resignations could have been avoided had Nagata voluntarily agreed to give up his Diet seat. Instead, a party disciplinary committee suspended him from the party for six months; a Diet disciplinary hearing is ongoing. Nagata, according to media reports, will resign his Diet seat. ¶4. (SBU) Adding to the pressure on Maehara are widely circulated rumors that party funds were used to pay for the fake e-mail. Shukan Shincho, a tabloid weekly, reported on March 30 that Nagata paid one million yen for the e-mail from DPJ funds. The report also said that the money involved could have been higher. Up to 4 million yen may have been drawn from party funds for transactions with the creator of the phony e-mail, Shukan Shincho asserted. Next Up -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Maehara's poor showing leaves younger candidates at a distinct disadvantage. One Embassy contact suggested that the party will seek someone with a "solid track record" like Ichiro Ozawa or Kozo Watanabe to make up for the "amateurish" party performance over the e-mail issue. Vice Speaker of the Lower House Takahiro Yokomichi also told us in late February -- soon after the e-mail scandal broke out -- that Maehara's performance has discredited the idea that the younger generation is ready to lead. Yokomichi predicted that the DPJ would opt for a more experienced politician to succeed Maehara. DPJ staffers remained tight-lipped about possible successors to Maehara. The pool of candidates includes Naoto Kan, Kozo Watanabe, Yukio Hatoyama and Ichiro Ozawa. Ozawa and Kan seem to be frontrunners. Selection Process -------------- ¶6. (SBU) One party staffer anticipated that the DPJ would opt for a limited selection process, one in which current DPJ Diet members choose their next leader. A full-blown election -- one in which local party chapters cast votes for the next party president -- would take too long, the staffer explained. The winner would then finish the rest of Maehara's term, which is set to end in September. This staffer was confident that the DPJ would want, at all costs, to avoid creating a vacuum during the ongoing Diet session. Leaving the party leaderless for too long is often seen as "irresponsible" and would leave the DPJ open to further criticism. ¶7. (SBU) An Ozawa-Kan race will highlight the right-left split in the DPJ. Maehara barely squeezed by Kan, a leader of the DPJ's left, reformist wing, in the September 2004 poll, which he won by only two votes. DONOVAN