DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 03/27/06

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 12 TOKYO 001587 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 03/27/06 INDEX: (1) Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe proposes setting up panel for promotion of second chance for failed executives (2) Koizumi successor - Study of Shinzo Abe (Part 4): Making preparations for dispute on consumption tax, Yasukuni issue (3) Interview with 1st Joint Staff Chief Massaki: SDF ready for terrorist attacks, disasters (4) Roundtable: Where is Iraq going? (5) Deployment of X-Band Radar in Tsugaru: Residents fear that Shariki base will become target of enemy missiles; Defense Agency underscores difference from X-rays ARTICLES: (1) Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe proposes setting up panel for promotion of second chance for failed executives SANKEI (Page 5) (Excerpts) March 24, 3006 Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe revealed in a press conference on March 23 a plan to set up a panel made up of bureau director- level officials from ministries and agencies to discuss the creation of a social framework in which failed entrepreneurs can try again to reenter the market. Abe would head the advisory panel. As a measure to respond to criticism that the Koizumi structural reform drive created social disparity and had its dark as well as light side, the government intends to incorporate the panel's suggestions in its "big-boned reform policy guidelines" to be worked out in June. Many in political circles think that Abe will make the ideas that come out into a part of his campaign pledges for the upcoming presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Asked by reporters about why he formed the panel, Abe responded firmly: "Fair competition can boost the economy and add to Japan's strength. Sometimes we win and sometimes we lose. It is not desirable for a permanent class of winners and losers to become entrenched. It is important to create a society in which people who fail can have another chance to try again." Creating a society that offers a second chance at success means placing more importance on an equal opportunity than on the equality of results. In turn, it means a "counterattack" against forces in the ruling camp that have been calling for correcting social disparity. Although there are many problems to tackle in order realize his goal, Abe intends to hold a first meeting of the panel as early as next week and come up with an interim report before the end of May. He proposed the plan to Prime Minister Koizumi on March 22. Koizumi reportedly said on approving it, "It's a good idea, so, I want you to do your best." Abe has been skeptical about postwar Japan's policies of democratic "equality" (i.e., equal results instead of equal TOKYO 00001587 002 OF 012 opportunity). He has, therefore, long cherished the idea of a "second chance" as part of his political belief since he was elected to the Diet. During his tenure as secretary general of the LDP, Abe worked hard to change the way of the LDP officially introducing candidates in national elections. At the time, he used the phrase: "We need to establish a system under which everybody can challenge politically again and again," as the keyword of a reform of the party. When he met last December with Carlos Ghosn, president and the CEO of Nissan Motor Co., he enthusiastically told him: "A society in which the effort pays off will enrich a country. It is the political responsibility to create a society in which those who have failed can have the chance to try again." Regarding the Team Japan's victory in the World Baseball Classic, Abe repeatedly said, "We should never give up. Team Japan showed us that as long as we refuse to give up, we will always have another chance." All the more because the idea seems to be a key notion in his forming an administration, it is now causing a stir in the LDP. A mid-level LDP lawmaker, who has close ties with Abe, commented: "The idea reflects Mr. Abe's political identity. But I did not think he would have revealed it so soon. He might be trying to erase the image of his being weak in economic and domestic affairs." A former cabinet minister said, "Since the next government will continue to focus on the "big-boned guidelines" policy, I assume that he wanted to place his own policy imprint in the guidelines." (2) Koizumi successor - Study of Shinzo Abe (Part 4): Making preparations for dispute on consumption tax, Yasukuni issue NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Excerpts) March 23, 2006 Shinzo Abe, who is known as a political hawk, also has been working hard as a member of the social welfare-policy clique in the Diet while serving as Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) Social Affairs Department head and other key posts. The LDP, the Social Democratic Party, and the New Party Sakigake inaugurated the Murayama administration in 1994. In this government, Abe was picked as a member of its social welfare project team. This gave Abe his start in social welfare-related activities. "You assume the post, Mr. Abe," said Junichiro Koizumi, who having already served as health and welfare minister, declined a turn at the lesser post and recommended that freshman lawmaker Abe get it instead. Abe's grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, started work on launching national healthcare and pension systems. The systems were introduced in 1961, but Kishi was forced to step down in 1960 in the aftermath of the struggle over the Japan-US Security Treaty. So Abe took the plunge and accepted the big role as team leader. In 1999, Abe engaged in negotiations with the Japan Medical Association over a revision of the nation's medical treatment fee system. These experiences were of great help for him to unify TOKYO 00001587 003 OF 012 views in the government over a reform of the medical system late last year. He attends a weekly meeting of the "parliamentary group to work out a sustainable social security system" - composed of mid-ranking and junior lawmakers - almost every week. He has stressed the necessity of reforming the pension, medical, and nursing systems in a comprehensive way. Spending cuts first On the controversial issue of whether to raise the consumption tax rate, Abe's assertion is that cutting spending should come first before the consumption tax is hiked. He draws a line with Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, who proposed submitting bills to raise the consumption tax to the Diet in 2007. Abe also has backed administrative reforms, such as a second round of reforms of the central government offices and further strengthening of the functions of the Prime Minister's Office. He believes these tasks the next administration should tackle on a top priority basis, as part of an effort to form "small government." Abe never forgets to cite the plan to raise by fiscal 2009 the share of the burden on the national treasury of pensions from one third to half the total payment. Some observers speculate that Abe is considering the possibility of submitting related bills to the Diet in 2008, while carefully watching moves for spending cuts and economic trends. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) lifted its monetary-easing policy on March 9. Abe opposed the new policy to the last minute. Even after the BOJ came up with the policy-switch decision, Abe has continued his efforts to discourage the BOJ from immediately abandoning its zero interest-rate policy. Should the economy fall into a flat spin, the current administration will unavoidably be at a disadvantage. Economic stagnation could also block the way to his assumption of the prime minister's post. The wrangling between Abe and the BOJ is likely to continue for a while. Importance placed on results In revising the Constitution, Abe wants Japan to be allowed to use the right to collective self-defense. He also emphasizes the need to strengthen Japan's role in helping to stabilize the international community. Even while recognizing the difficulty of immediately placing the task of revising the Constitution on the political agenda, he thinks that if Japan and the US increase their interdependence under their security arrangements, it will become possible for Japan to offer its views on even ground with the US. The image of a state that Abe has envisioned for Japan is a "country that can be proud of its history and culture." Many lawmakers from the ruling and opposition camps look favorably on such a conservative stance. Abe has no intention to avoid disputes over Asia policy. China has sent a signal that "if Koizumi's successor refrains from visiting Yasukuni Shrine, Japan-China relations will head for normalization." Abe, however, instructed the Foreign Ministry to map out a strategy toward China on the premise that the prime minister will continue to visit the shrine. TOKYO 00001587 004 OF 012 Abe said: "To pursue national interests, it is necessary to adopt a strategic approach. Politicians must be realists." Producing results is an essential matter for Abe. (3) Interview with 1st Joint Staff Chief Massaki: SDF ready for terrorist attacks, disasters NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full) March 25, 2006 On March 27, the Self-Defense Forces will integrate its three branches under a joint chain of command. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun interviewed Joint Staff Council (JSC) Chairman Hajime Massaki, 61, who will become the first chief of the Joint Staff Office (JSO) of the Ground, Maritime, and Air Self-Defense Forces (GSDF, MSDF, and ASDF) to hear his views on the aim of SDF integration and challenges. -- Why does the SDF need to integrate its three services? Massaki: In the event of major disasters, the GSDF, MSDF, and ASDF will have to respond immediately and effectively. In order for the three SDF services to do so, it's only natural to ready them. It will take time to respond if the GSDF, MSDF, and ASDF separately assist the Defense Agency director general in that event. And now, we must integrate their respective chains of command to be ready at any time for missile attacks and other newly emerging threats. -- At the time of the Hanshin (Osaka-Kobe) earthquake, the SDF services were out of step in their disaster relief operations. Massaki: Indeed, we could do more from the perspective of effective operations. Meanwhile, at the time of the 2004 Sumatra offing earthquake, we employed MSDF vessels to sealift GSDF members and used GSDF helicopters for rescue operations. That became a touchstone for the SDF integration. -- Will the SDF integration affect the SDF's partnership with US forces? Massaki: We'll also integrate out points of contact with US forces, so our bilateral alliance will be more credible. -- What's up ahead of the SDF integration? Massaki: For the time being, under the JSO's command, we need to facilitate the deployment of GSDF members in Iraq and the deployment of MSDF vessels in the Indian Ocean. Each of the three SDF services has a history of 50 years. In addition, they also have different cultures. We should not just mix them up but should make the most of what they have. In that image, we'd like to take time. It's also critical to team up with other government ministries and agencies. There's also something the Defense Agency alone cannot do. We'd like to ready ourselves for political decisions. (4) Roundtable: Where is Iraq going? ASAHI (Page 15) (Full) March 16, 2006 On March 20, Iraq will be at three-year mark since the war TOKYO 00001587 005 OF 012 started. Amid bloodshed and turmoil, Iraq somehow managed to elect state parliamentarians for its recovery and entry into the community of democratic nations. However, Iraq has now become a theater of intensifying conflicts involving Islamic sects. Such a situation prevents Iraq from launching a permanent government, with foreign security troops about to pull out. As it stands, the situation in Iraq is growing even murkier than before, with uncertainties looming ahead. The Asahi Shimbun held a roundtable of three experts on Iraq to discuss its future course: Keiko Sakai, a professor at the Tokyo University of Foreign Studies; Fumiaki Kubo, a professor at the University of Tokyo; and Kunihiko Miyake, representative of the AOI Institute of Foreign Policy Studies. Iraq now -- What's your view of Iraq now? Sakai: There are three points to note. First, there is now spreading armed clashes involving the Iraqi people themselves. In the past, local people resorted to violence to stir up religious conflict. However, this February's bombing of a mosque in Samala touched off a chain reaction of armed conflicts across that country. The clerics could no longer control the perpetrators, or their own control system didn't work in itself. So the situation is now serious. Second, Islamic groups are on the rise. Last year, in January and in December, Iraq held elections for its national assembly. But secular candidates couldn't get enough votes. In the meantime, Islamic groups have now come to stay with their overwhelming power. From now on, their emergence would become a focus along with situations in neighboring countries, such as the rise of Hamas in the Palestinian Authority. And third, I can't ignore Iran's intervention. Kubo: The US Bush administration wants to pull out some of those US troops in a visible way before this November's off-year election and leave security jobs in the hands of reinforced Iraqi forces and local police. But the Shiites and the Sunnis are intensifying the conflict. So I wonder if Iraqis can make it in such a situation when such things are happening. They face a new challenge. Miyake: In January last year, Iraq held an election for its national assembly. In that election, the turnout of voters was over 8 million. But in the next election that took place in December last year, a total of 12 million people-or nearly 80% of that country's voting population-went to the polls to cast their votes. The political elite of that country used to be a governing council of 25 members picked by the US-led occupation forces. But now, that country's poverty-stricken groups, including Sadr's supporters, are somehow taking part in the political process. This situation is a far cry from being a civil war, that is, armed insurgents try to secure the legitimacy of governance. In a civil war, the Sunni people will suffer the worst. In that case, (autonomy-minded) Kurds will enjoy themselves. However, Iraq has yet to have its own full-fledged security forces. So there may be no end to the rat race going on with the resistance forces. -- What's your view of the deployment of US troops in Iraq? Is Iraq recovering public security and making progress in the political process? Kubo: The present-day situation in Iraq is often compared with TOKYO 00001587 006 OF 012 the Vietnam War. However, the government of South Vietnam, which the United States backed in those days, had almost no democratic legitimacy. Besides, people in South Vietnam distanced themselves from the then government. The Iraqi government now is of qualifying legitimacy in terms of average democracy in the world. Miyake: Iraq is now undergoing a historic experiment. From the start, that country's border is a man-made product. Kurdish people live in northern districts, Sunni people in the middle part, and Shiite people in southern districts. Iraq has more than 20 million people, and the Iraqi people were under the rule of autocracy. This pattern of governing is now back to where it started. In the history of Iraq, the ruler threatened to kill political opponents. There are still many people being killed. However, Iraq has never held such talks to make political decisions. The United States' deployment of 160,000 troops in Iraq will not lead to the recovery of public security in that country. But if the United States discontinues its troop deployment there, the local situation will go from bad to worse. When I was in Iraq as a diplomat, the multinational force used to be the main target of attack. But now, the resistance forces target Iraqis. They have lost public support, so they're now being isolated and weakened. In such a situation, it would be better at this point to continue the deployment of US troops in Iraq. -- What made Shiite and Sunni peoples intensify their conflicts? Sakai: They long lived together in Iraq. But there is an Islamic political party that upholds the ideology of Shiite people. That political party's militia now controls the national security organization that should be neutral. Sunni people think the Islamic Shiite group is using force to control the Sunni people. So the Sunnis are going against the Shiites. In addition, the United States created the governing council after the war to help reconstruct Iraq. In that process, the United States created a political elite in the form of such-and-such persons from the Shiites and from the Sunnis. There's no denying that this also provoked the Sunnis. In Iraq, the Kurdish people have long desired autonomy. However, they've never had a political party of their own because the Shiites and the Sunnis have already had their own to govern within the framework of their regime. This is also a primary factor explaining their clashes. In such a situation, the United States does not want to be involved in any local political party. That's why US forces can do nothing about their conflict. In the meantime, Ayatolla Ali Shistani called for state-controlled security as a religious authority of the Shiites. But now, even Shistani has no choice but to have his own bodyguards. US and Mideast democratization -- How is the US reacting? Kubo: In the United States, Iraq policy has now become a major political issue. That's true. When the Iraq war started, an overwhelming majority of the Americans supported the Iraq war. In the spring of 2004, however, public opinion in the United States was split over that war, with the even proportions of those supporting the Iraq war and those thinking it was wrong. And now, their proportions have changed places. At the same time, President Bush's approval rating also went down, now hanging low at 34%. I can say the US is paying a big political cost for the TOKYO 00001587 007 OF 012 Iraq war. Even so, the Democratic Party, now on the opposition bench, is also in a dilemma. They know it's not good enough to only target antiwar people in their campaigning for the 2008 presidential election. For one thing, the United States is fighting against terrorism. Many of the Americans want the Bush administration to take an even stronger stand against terrorists. That's why. -- When it comes to interventions from outside, Al Qaeda and Iran are reportedly pulling the wires behind the scenes. Miyake: In Iraq, there are diehard survivors from the former Baath party, swearing loyalty to former President Hussein, as well as fanatical militants. Moreover, in Iraq, there are also Al Qaeda members and other foreign insurgents. They would continue their activities in Iraq. But it looks like they're now wide apart from the Iraqi people and they're becoming weak. The political situation in Iraq now is close to the Liberal Democratic Party's one-time factional struggle. They at least understand that it's in their common interest to keep up the current political system. In the meantime, the biggest problem to Iraq is its nuclear development program. The United States is standing against Iran's nuclear program. Iraq is now being driven into a tight corner in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). They know the United States would next target their country after Iraq becomes stabilized, so I think they're maneuvering in Iraq. They probably want Iraq to remain in turmoil as far as they're not affected, and they want to be left alone. That's probably the best possible situation for them. -- What about other neighboring countries? Miyake: Sunnis form a majority in Arab countries along the Gulf. They have a very strong fear of Iraq that is ruled by Shiites. They also don't want Iran to gain power under the rule of Shiites. For the Gulf states, Iraq is a buffer and the present- day situation is best. -- President Bush used the words "Islamic radicalism" in his strategy to contain enemies. Kubo: He wouldn't compromise on Iran's nuclear development. People called "neoconservatives" were optimistic about the Iraq war. One of them said Iraqis would welcome American troops as liberators. So they've now lost their influence. But they have not completely disappeared from the administration. They would remain influential in the United States' foreign policy, for the United States is taking a hardline stance toward China and Syria. -- What about the Middle East's democratization? How do you think the secular government of Iraq will turn out? Sakai: It would be a centralized governance structure and Iraq would become an Islamic state. Otherwise, it would go for decentralization while remaining secular. At present, there are struggles between two political groups, one opting for secular decentralized governance and the other for Islamic centralized governance. In either case, the current secular centralized government would substantially change. Miyake: They say they have only to create a secular democracy. That's their postwar approach in Iraq. But it's no good to talk about secularism or democracy to people who devote their lives to TOKYO 00001587 008 OF 012 their god. I think there's a hint in the idea of Christian democracy in Europe. Religious people must not be excluded. Iraqi people will have to acquire experience to establish their own Islamic democracy and govern in a realistic way, or the Middle East can't be democratized, I think. Sakai: Basically, I agree to that view. The more elections they have in Iraq, the more elections Islamic groups win. That's clear in the past two years. It's no use dreaming of a secular governance structure. There's no choice but to think of how well to get along with Islamic groups on the rise. When taking a look at Shiite political groups now, there's a pragmatic Islamic political party mainly consisting of elite people, and there's a group that has almost no pragmatism like Sadr's supporters but has strong clout on the masses. The two groups are fifty-fifty in their balance of seats. This situation is a factor of trouble in electing their prime minister. Kubo: Even in the Middle East, there's a country like Iran that restricts people's candidacy for elections. In the case of Palestinians, they don't have such restrictions. There are such important differences. Even after a democratic election, the governing party may change rules to remain in office. That's undeniable, indeed. However, the important thing is to maintain democratic rules. That's the starting point of mature democracy. -- The US appears returning to multilateralism in its relations with Europe. Kubo: In terms of multilateralism, there are important criteria, such as the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT),the International Criminal Court (ICC),and the Kyoto Protocol. However, it's inconceivable that the United States will turn out to be a multilateralism-oriented country under the Bush administration. The United States may think over the deadlocked situation in Iraq. But Iraq and Iran are in quite different circumstances. It's not a fundamental change in the United States' foreign policy. We should take it as a limited move aiming in part to repair the United States' relations with Europe. For example, the United States recently agreed with India to extend technological cooperation to India in the area of atomic power generation. Such cooperation, however, could unilaterally undermine the nuclear nonproliferation regime. In the end, the United States factored in what's in its national interests. That's probably their judgment. I guess that the United States deemed it important to strengthen its economic ties with India or otherwise to check China and not to isolate India as a democratic country. SDF evaluation -- Then, what's your evaluation of Japan's deployment of Self- Defense Forces personnel in Iraq? Sakai: According to findings from public opinion surveys conducted in Samawah and other local districts around the SDF camp, there are no negative reactions to the SDF presence. At the same time, however, local people also don't think the SDF presence there has dramatically improved the livelihood of local people. Nevertheless, they want the SDF to stay on. They're probably aware that Japan's assistance with its deployment of SDF troops supports their daily lives. If that's the case, the SDF deployment there might have had little to do with the TOKYO 00001587 009 OF 012 effectiveness of Japan's aid to that country. In other words, it might be better for Japan to only provide official development assistance (ODA) from the start. Miyake: Japan's deployment of SDF troops in Iraq and Japan's assistance to that country with ODA projects have nothing to do with the United States. Japan demonstrated its intention to support Iraq. It's wrong to separate ODA projects and SDF activities in this way or that way when talking about Japan's contribution to Iraq. The Japanese government decided to carry them out as one. There's an argument raising a question about continuing the SDF deployment. At this point, however, there's no information enough to decide to recall the SDF troops. Even Prime Minister Koizumi probably can't make such a decision. There's no choice but to wait and see the situation for a while. Kubo: There are various opinions among the Iraqi people, too. However, if their democratic and legitimate government asks the SDF to stay on or appreciates Japan's cooperation, then we should probably think in a positive way. We should not evaluate the SDF from the aspect of how many people the SDF hired or how many buildings the SDF created. Instead, we should evaluate the SDF from the perspective of the fact that Japan demonstrated its willingness to assist with Iraq's nation rebuilding. -- How do you think Japan should get along with Iraq from now on? Sakai: The local image of Japanese technology is probably high. That's what shows Iraqi people's expectations for Japan. Iraqi people are asking for economic aid, but only the political process is going ahead. So their frustration is growing stronger. The question is how to meet their expectations for Japan's aid in the areas of infrastructure construction and education. That's probably the point. Iran policy involved Daiji Sadamori, Asahi Shimbun How will future historians depict the Iraq war? Will they regard the Iraq war as a 'lost war' for the United States that further destabilized the Middle East although the United States, burning with vengeful thoughts for the 9-11 terrorist attacks, could not satisfy itself with the Afghan war alone and went so far as to topple even the Hussein regime, an enemy of long standing? Will they otherwise give high marks to the Iraq war as what paved the way to the Middle East's democratization and strengthened the United States' unipolar structure as the only superpower in the long run although the United States' prestige was called into question with its largest military strategy since the Vietnam War? In the roundtable, the three experts were split in opinion about Iraq that still remains unable to find a way out of its bogged- down situation. That is because Iraq is at a risk for a civil war like the former Yugoslavia and Lebanon but the country's democratic political process has not died out. The international community's desired future image of Iraq is that Iraq will have a government of national unity that overcomes the barriers of religious sects and ethnic groups and will rebuild itself into a nation that is stabilized enough for the US- and UK-led multinational force to pull out. Iraq's national TOKYO 00001587 010 OF 012 assembly will meet March 16 to establish a legitimate government. It is three months after its election held late last year. However, there would be struggles for the posts of oil, defense, and home affairs ministers and other key cabinet posts. It would not be easy for Iraq to inaugurate its new government. US President Bush, now hovering low in his approval ratings at home, and his administration are still optimistic about the Iraqi situation. However, how long can the Bush administration remain tough against Iran, which has influence on Iraq, over its nuclear development issue? The United States once attempted in vain to contain both Iran and Iraq. How will the United States settle its showdown with Iran? The Iraq war, in its settlement, will involve such a factor, too. (5) Deployment of X-Band Radar in Tsugaru: Residents fear that Shariki base will become target of enemy missiles; Defense Agency underscores difference from X-rays TOKYO SHIMBUN (Pp.29-30) (Abridged) March 24, 2006 Although Okinawa Prefecture seems to be stealing national attention due to the planned relocation of the US Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station, there is another essential site elsewhere in the country connected to the realignment of US forces in Japan. It is Tsugaru City, Aomori Prefecture. The US military has decided to deploy in Tsugaru an X-Band radar, designed to detect and track ballistic missiles, as part of the missile defense (MD) system. This article examines local reactions to MD, which has been likened to hitting a fired bullet with another fired bullet, according to experts. On the afternoon of March 22, the Tomiyachi community center in Tsugaru was packed with some 90 local business leaders. Before SIPDIS the local audience, officials from the Defense Agency and the Sendai District Defense Facilities Administration Bureau repeatedly said, "Obtaining your understanding is essential for Japan's national defense." Their explanation elicited questions from attendees, such as, "Why did you have to pick Shariki?" and, "Is it all right for fishermen to be showered with radio waves every day?" Located in Tsugaru in the northeastern Aomori Prefecture facing the Sea of Japan, the Shariki district is a quiet farming village known for its delicious melons and other products. Fishing is also a main industry. But since the Air Self-Defense Force's Shariki detachment base was established in 1980, national defense has been a matter of concern for the residents of Shariki. On March 3, the Defense Facilities Administration Agency unveiled a plan to deploy the X-Band Radar at the Shariki base. The announcement was followed by the Aomori prefectural government's decision not to conduct a plebiscite. Feeling uneasy, residents have launched a group opposing the X-Band Radar led by Shozo Narita, chairman of the Tomiyachi association. The group has repeatedly asked DFAA for a briefing session. What is the X-Band Radar? Newly developed by the US military, it is designed to detect and track ballistic missiles heading toward countries that are friends and allies of the United States. Composed of a container-like unit weighing 30 tons or so, the TOKYO 00001587 011 OF 012 radar is easily mobile and is capable of emitting radio waves to detect objects. The Defense Agency plans to deploy the unit at the Shariki base this summer or later against missiles from North Korea and China. Having heard rumors, local residents fear the radio waves' hazardous effects on humans and damage to agricultural and marine products. One resident said apprehensively, "Shariki may become a target of enemy missiles. Public security may be disturbed by US troops stationed here." To appease local concerns, a DFAA official explained: "Although it is called the X-Band, it is different from X-rays and is safe. The deployment will help increase Japan's deterrent capability against armed attacks. The agency will urge the US military to maintain high discipline. DFAA will station its officials on a regular basis as counselors." Mitsuo Narumi, 76, a Tomiyachi association executive, commented in a strong tone: "Until recently, we were left in the dark about the plan, on which the government must have decided a long time ago. The government is trying to steamroll the plan by ignoring local residents." A cabinet decision was made in late March 2003 to introduce the US-led MD system. The government plans to begin deploying the X- Band Radar in late fiscal 2006 in the hope it will play an important role in missile defense. But why was Aomori Prefecture picked? Military analyst Motoaki Kamiura takes this view: "In 1998, a North Korean ballistic missile flew over the Tohoku region and splashed into waters off Sanriku. If North Korea is to launch a ballistic missile at a direction of the United States, it has only the technology to fire it eastward. For this reason, the Defense Agency seems to have picked Aomori to prepare against another missile from North Korea." It is also greatly significant to deploy the X-Band Radar at an ASDF base instead of a US military facility. Military affairs commentator Osamu Inagaki noted: "Until now, cooperative relations existed in the form of the SDF providing the US military with intelligence on submarines collected by P-3Cs. The future image is that SDF personnel will work side by side with US military personnel. It will be part of the transformation for the efficient integrated operations of the SDF and US forces in Japan." But the integrated operations of Japanese and US forces run the risk of integrating some residents into the US military, as well. Inagaki explained the fear of residents, saying, "Missile defense requires both ballistic missiles and a radar, and an enemy is expected to take aim at the radar." Missile defense may rock Japan's basic security principles. Under TOKYO 00001587 012 OF 012 the SDF Law, Japan is allowed to intercept incoming ballistic and other missiles only. It is extremely difficult to determine if a missile is headed for Japan. Shooting down a missile with an unpredictable destination may constitute the exercise of the right of collective self-defense, which is prohibited under the Constitution. Kamiura raised questions, saying: "A launched missile changes its direction to the east after the boost phase. It's possible to determine where it is headed from its altitude and its angle. But it takes only about 10 minutes for a North Korean missile to land in Japan. It's actually impossible to selectively determine to intercept a Japan-bound missile and stay away from one headed for Guam." A lack of discussion on the right of collective self-defense Aomori prefectural assemblyman Hidehiko Watanabe of the Social Democratic Party noted in an angry tone: "Residents fear the radar's possible adverse effects on humans and the environment. The US military and the Japanese government are trying to deploy the radar without making sufficient efforts to dispel their concerns. The residents are becoming distrustful of such an approach." Kamiura also expressed apprehensions about the government's approach of pushing ahead with the plan without resolving problems: "The government is trying to move on to the deployment of the X- Band Radar and the operation of MD without discussing at the Diet what to do with the question of exercising the right of collective self-defense under the Constitution. Japan would end up as a strategic stronghold for the US military." Last October, Tokyo and Washington produced an interim report on US force realignment requiring Japan to complete local coordination by the end of this month. "The government underestimated Aomori because unlike Okinawa and Iwakuni, we didn't voice our opposition to the X-Band Radar," Watanabe said angrily. The Defense Agency is scheduled to brief the Aomori prefectural assembly today and Tsugaru residents tomorrow to seek their understanding. Chairman Narita of the group opposing the X-Band Radar commented: "Explanations have been insufficient. We will file a petition and take other actions." Tsugaru city assemblyman Katsuhide Shirato from the Shariki SIPDIS district said: "We will boil down conditions, such as regular health checkups. A signature-collecting campaign may follow the government's refusal of our requests." SCHIEFFER