KOMEITO PARTY SUPPORT CRUCIAL TO LDP'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 001440

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2031
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ETRD EFIN MARR KN CH JA
SUBJECT: KOMEITO PARTY SUPPORT CRUCIAL TO LDP'S
RULING-PARTY STATUS, BUT ASKS LITTLE IN RETURN

REF: 05 TOKYO 06701

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Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer. Reasons:1.4(b/d).


1. (C) Summary: The once center-left Komeito party is
slowly moving toward the right, Embassy contacts tell us, and
that trend is unlikely to change even if Komeito President
Kanzaki decides to step down later this year. Although the
New Komeito Party's support has been crucial to the Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP),both for its votes in the Diet and
assistance in national elections, the party has not sought to
leverage its support on policies beyond social welfare
issues. Komeito backing for the more conservative PM
Koizumi's policies sometimes causes friction with the party's
Soka Gakkai-member supporters, but Komeito prefers to
persuade the lay Buddhist organization's members to accept
the government's policies, rather than confront the LDP.
Komeito opposes the LDP on constitutional reform, upgrading
the Defense Agency to a ministry, and revision of the Basic
Education Law. Our Komeito interlocutors are confident,
however, that inter-party discussions will eventually resolve
those issues. End Summary.

Key Electoral Support
--------------


2. (C) Since 1997 the LDP has needed Komeito Diet members'
votes to form a majority in the Upper House. However, more
importantly, the LDP has also become dependent on the Komeito
party's backing of LDP candidates in Diet elections for both
houses. Since joining the ruling coalition, Komeito has
urged its supporters to vote for LDP candidates in
single-seat races where there is no Komeito candidate.
Disciplined block voting by the roughly 10 million members of
Soka Gakkai (the lay Buddhist organization that founded the
Komeito in 1964) has thus become an indispensable political
asset for the LDP. A Komeito contact quoted former PM Mori
as saying that Komeito support for LDP candidates provided
the winning margin in 91 races in the September 2005 Lower
House elections. The Komeito party believes that the
circumstances of that election, in which PM Koizumi's
personal charisma attracted an unusually large number of
swing voters, is unlikely to be repeated in future elections,
a development that will lock in Komeito's influence over the
LDP.

Little Policy Influence
--------------


3. (C) In return for its electoral and Diet support Komeito
has obtained only a limited degree of influence over
government policy. Most of Komeito's influence is confined
to welfare issues, a top priority of the party's Soka Gakkai
adherents. Komeito Diet Member Otohiko Endo confided to
Embassy Tokyo political officer that he would like to see
Komeito expand its influence over a wider area of issues.
But when pressed on what policies he would like to see
greater Komeito input, Endo could only name increased aid for
education and job training to boost employment opportunities
and narrow the gap between lower and middle income groups --
the general issue area in which Komeito has long taken an
interest. Endo said that although he believes Komeito is too
meek in its relationship with the LDP, there is no widespread
feeling within Komeito that it should seek a stronger role in
the ruling coalition.

Responsible and Pragmatic
--------------


4. (C) In a separate meeting, Komeito Diet Member Isamu Ueda
stated there was a significant convergence of views between
Komeito and the LDP. He acknowledged that Soka Gakkai's
concern for welfare issues and strong support of pacifism
might seem an unlikely fit with the more conservative LDP,
but averred that Komeito was never an ideological leftist
party. Ueda stated that the wide range of views among LDP
Diet members provided a significant overlap on most issues
with Komeito.


5. (C) Ueda observed that since joining the ruling coalition
Komeito has had to give up the "luxury" of taking populist

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stands critical of government policy. He noted that Party
President Kanzaki objects to PM Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni
shrine, but has, in effect, acquiesced to the visits, saying
relatively little. The party takes a responsible, pragmatic
approach on the issues, Ueda insisted, and works diligently
with its more idealistic Soka Gakkai supporters to persuade
them of the merits of the government's policies. He noted
that Komeito persuaded its pacifist supporters that sending
Self Defense Force personnel to Iraq was the right thing to
do. Party leaders argued that talking about peace was not
sufficient; Japan has a responsibility to contribute to
efforts that produce the conditions for peace, Ueda said.
One Komeito objective, he acknowledged, is to restrain the
right-wing tendencies of some LDP Diet members.


6. (C) Komeito International Affairs Bureau Chief Toshihisa
Koganeya confided to us that he felt the Komeito party was
moving "step-by-step from center-left to center-right." He
thought that North Korea's missile tests and abductions of
Japanese citizens, as well as the emergence of China, had
influenced the thinking of many Komeito supporters. Asked
about Komeito's ties with the Chinese Communist Party, he
acknowledged the relationship, but said China could never be
an ally of Japan's as there is no agreement on fundamental
values. Koganeya stated that Komeito was generally
comfortable with the policy direction of the LDP, but noted
three issues on which his party disagreed with the LDP:
Constitutional revision, upgrading the Japan Defense Agency
(JDA) to a ministry, and revision of the Basic Education Law.


Constitutional Reform
--------------


7. (C) Komeito is not opposed to constitutional reform in
principle, Koganeya stated, but it would prefer to amend each
article separately, in the U.S. fashion, rather than re-draft
the entire Constitution. Komeito believes that rightists in
the LDP see the constitutional redrafting exercise as a step
in reasserting Japan's military power. Komeito is
particularly concerned about changes to pacifist Article 9,
which prohibits Japan from maintaining military forces.
While the LDP has proposed new, more robust language for the
article's second clause (reftel),Komeito would keep the
existing two clauses, but add a third clause that recognizes
the existence of the Self Defense Forces and provides for
participation in international peacekeeping operations.
However, unlike the LDP, Komeito does not favor permitting
Japan to exercise the right of collective self defense.
Komeito Diet Member Ueda told us that although the two
parties would appear to be at loggerheads over the issue, he
believes the problem is manageable. Ueda is confident that
language can be negotiated to the satisfaction of both
parties. Moreover, it is not an immediate problem. Ueda
noted that Komeito is not due to present its draft proposals
for constitutional revision until November, and given the
need to reach agreement with the opposition Democratic Party
of Japan to obtain the required two-thirds majority in the
Diet, he expects the constitutional revision process to take
years.

JDA Upgrade
--------------


8. (C) According to party staffer Koganeya, the Komeito
party is not opposed to upgrading the JDA to a ministry, but
it is taking a cautious stance on the issue. He told us that
many Komeito Diet members understand the need for the
upgrade, recognizing that a minister's greater influence and
authority would be appropriate for the JDA given Japan's
security situation. However, the current bid-rigging scandal
must be resolved before any consideration can be given to
upgrading the agency, he insisted. The two parties are
currently discussing what must be done to prevent further
such abuse.

Education Law Revision
--------------


9. (C) The LDP has proposed revising the Basic Education
Law, but Komeito feels revision is unnecessary. Diet Member

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Endo explained that some right-wing LDP members, who object
to the existing legislation because of its U.S. origin in the
wake of World War II, would use the Education Law's revision
to revive support for Japanese militarism. LDP proponents of
the revision claim that a lack of patriotism is responsible
for much of what ails Japan, he stated, while the Komeito
party faults problems in the family, community and government
bureaucracy. Endo noted that despite its objections, Komeito
has consented to revising the legislation. However,
discussions between the two parties are stuck over the
expression of patriotism in the draft bill. The LDP would
use the phrase "kuni wo aisuru kokoro" or the spirit of
loving our nation, while Komeito has countered with "kuni wo
taisetsuni suru kokoro" or the spirit of cherishing our
nation. Endo believes there is an even chance the bill will
be passed in the current session.

Focus on Welfare Issues
--------------


10. (C) According to Diet Member Ueda, despite Komeito's
interest in expanding welfare services, the party has
strongly supported PM Koizumi's administrative reform
proposals for reducing the size of government. He explained
that Komeito understands the government's budgetary pressures
and is interested in boosting governmental efficiency.
Otherwise, he stated, the government would not have the
resources to provide welfare benefits.


11. (C) Having influence over how welfare benefits and other
government services are cut back is important to Komeito.
Party staffer Koganeya told us Komeito advanced a practical
suggestion for dividing discussion of administrative reform
into four areas: services the government should provide,
services the government should not provide, services that
should be provided by local government and services that
should be provided by the private sector. PM Koizumi has
accepted this approach Koganeya said, and the two parties are
currently discussing the issues under that framework. One
reform proposal that troubles Komeito is the integration and
reorganization of eight government-affiliated financial
institutions. Komeito is concerned that this effort will
reduce the amount of credit available to small- and
medium-size businesses, particularly in rural areas.


12. (C) Komeito is also strongly interested in boosting the
benefits paid to parents for raising children. Concerned
about Japan's declining birth rate, Komeito wants to increase
the monthly stipend paid for each child and lengthen the
benefit term from 9 to 12 years and is discussing further
lengthening the term to 18 years.

Change in Leadership?
--------------


13. (C) Our Komeito contacts insist that recent press
reports of Komeito President Kanzaki stepping down at the end
of his term in November are premature. However, Diet Member
Ueda admitted that after eight years, Kanzaki may well decide

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to relinquish the position. He acknowledged that Kanzaki and
Secretary General Fuyushiba have led the party gently toward

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the right as coalition partners of the Koizumi government,
but thought there was little chance a successor would move
the party in another direction. There are no issues pulling
the party to the left, he asserted. Although our contacts
declined to speculate on the matter, the major uncertainty
facing the party is the effect the sudden demise of Soka
Gakkai's aging, charismatic president, Daisaku Ikeda, would
have on Komeito.
SCHIEFFER