JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 03/13/06

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E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 03/13/06 Index: 1) Top headlines 2) Editorials Prime Minister's weekend, daily schedule: None Defense and security issues: 3) 87% reject US carrier-borne aircraft redeployment to Iwakuni in local plebiscite 4) 90% opposed to US carrier-borne fighter jets relocation from Atsugi to Iwakuni 5) Iwakuni referendum finds overwhelming majority opposed to USFJ realignment plan 6) First popular will shown, heavy pressure on gov't 7) Gov't, LDP to prioritize US-Japan agreement on USFJ realignment 8) Japan estimates burden sharing at 3 trillion yen for USFJ realignment 9) But Finance Ministry negative about exceptional disbursement for USFJ realignment 10) US to return 3 Okinawa bases 11) US to return 3 Okinawa facilities 12) US to return Yokota-controlled airspace in part 13) Japan to give up completing troop pullout in May 14) North Korea developing Taepodong 3 to cover US Beef ban: 15) Farm minister denies impact on import resumption with possible BSE case in US 16) Gov't to ask US for cattle information 17) US urges Japan to resume US beef imports at early date 18) Japan to go ahead with FTA talks with ASEAN countries 19) Japan likely to give up presenting USNC expansion resolution 20) Japan expert to leave Japan Desk post at US State Department 21) ABE tops all others in popularity ranking for post-Koizumi premiership Articles: 1) TOP HEADLINES Asahi, Mainichi & Tokyo Shimbun: Iwakuni vote, with 58% turnout, shows 87% oppose planned relocation of US military airwing, casting shadow over US force realignment talks Yomiuri: Nearly 30% of reports on medical accidents by 272 hospitals do not post age, sex of patients for privacy-protection reasons Nihon Keizai: Japanese banks sharply increase lending overseas, mainly to Japanese firms in Asia, Middle East, as of end of January Sankei: Political parties making greater use of blogs 2) EDITORIALS TOKYO 00001306 002 OF 013 Asahi: (1) Koreans brought to Japan for forced labor: Light at the end of the tunnel (2) Review necessary for abnormally low rent for housing for government workers Mainichi: (1) Reform of local allocation tax should be carried out in line with decentralization (2) Policy debate imperative in selecting party head Yomiuri: (1) Despite result of Iwakuni vote, US force realignment is necessary (2) Encourage healthy eating habits Nihon Keizai: (1) Improve legal framework for financial and capital markets under political leadership Sankei: (1) Condemned criminals' organs: Steady efforts necessary to increase good-will organ donors (2) Heavy snow this winter: Work out effective measures for survival in depopulated villages Tokyo Shimbun: (1) Details about projects must be presented before introducing forestry environment tax (2) Thorough preparations necessary for pluthermal project to ensure safety 3) Iwakuni plebiscite marks 58% voter turnout; 87% of residents say 'no' to carrier-borne aircraft relocation plan; Results affect overall US force realignment plan ASAHI (Top play) (Full) March 13, 2006 A referendum was held yesterday in Iwakuni City, Yamaguchi Prefecture, over the propriety of a government plan to relocate US carrier-borne aircraft from Atsugi Air Base in Kanagawa Prefecture to the Marine Corps' Iwakuni Air Station in the city. The votes were counted yesterday. The voter turnout was 58.68%. Eighty-seven percent of the voters, well over the 50% line, said "no" to the plan. Although the results are nonbinding, Mayor Katsusuke Ihara said, "Taking the results seriously, I will urge the central government to rescind the relocation plan." The mayor intends to directly convey the results to the central government soon. The nation's first official negative reaction at the local level to the planned US force realignment is likely to have an adverse effect on the government's efforts to persuade other local areas, including a plan to relocate the US Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station in Ginowan, Okinawa Prefecture. The vote held yesterday in Iwakuni was the nation's first municipal referendum over the planned US force realignment. In order for votes to be counted, voter turnout must exceed 50%. This prompted those willing to accept the plan with some TOKYO 00001306 003 OF 013 conditions, such as local stimulus measures, to call for residents to boycott the referendum. With the results of the plebiscite on hand, Mayor Ihara is scheduled to announce his official view in the city's assembly's plenary session tomorrow. He is also expected to convey Iwakuni's policy to the central government after holding talks with the city assembly and prefectural government. The relocation of carrier-borne aircraft from the Atsugi base to Iwakuni is incorporated in the interim report released by Japan and the US last fall. The two governments plan to realize the relocation once the project to relocate the current runway 1 kilometer further offshore is completed in fiscal 2009. The government plans to incorporate this plan in the final report without making any changes. Defense Agency Director General Fukushiro Nukaga released a comment last night that the government would continue explaining to local areas the need for relocation plans in order to obtain their understanding and cooperation. In anticipation of an economic stimulus package, the Yamaguchi prefectural government is leaning toward approving the relocation plan. Ihara, however, noted late yesterday, "We will not cut a deal (with the central government) to accept the relocation." Ihara will resign from post March 19, the day before Iwakuni will merge with other municipalities. The newly reorganized Iwakuni City is expected to hold a mayoral election in about a month. Results of Iwakuni referendum on relocation of US carrier-borne aircraft Voter turnout: 58.68% Yes 5,369 votes 10.8 % No 43,433 votes 87.4 % Invalid 879 votes 1.8 % Total eligible voters: 84,659 4) Iwakuni referendum; 90% of voters against transfer of US military aircraft: Mayor to call for withdrawal of relocation plan; Blow to government; Result likely to affect other areas up for relocation sites TOKYO SHIMBUN (Top Play) (Excerpts) March 13, 2006 Iwakuni, Yamaguchi Prefecture, which hosts US Iwakuni Marine Corps Air Station, held a referendum on whether to accept carrier- borne fighter jets from the US Navy's Atsugi Air Base, Kanagawa Prefecture. An overwhelming majority voted against the relocation with 43,433 casting negative votes, while 5,369 voted in favor of the proposal. The number of ballots against the relocation accounted for 89% of valid votes, reaching a majority of eligible voters. The referendum was valid with voter turnout reaching 58.68%, meeting the municipal ordinance requiring that voter turnout exceed 50%. Comment by Iwakuni Mayor Katsusuke Ihara: Many people expressed opposition to the relocation of US military aircraft at town TOKYO 00001306 004 OF 013 meetings. The result of the referendum backs this up. I will discuss the proposal for relocating carrier-borne fighter jets to Iwakuni with the municipal assembly with the goal of having it withdrawn. Both the government and the US say that understanding and cooperation from local communities are important for the stable operation of military bases. I would like to convey the will of local residents to the government, by respecting the result of the referendum. I would like the government to value the views of the local community and make an appropriate policy judgment. 5) Iwakuni plebiscite: Overwhelming majority says no to relocation of carrier-borne aircraft MAINICHI (Top play) (Excerpt) March 13, 2006 A municipal plebiscite was carried out yesterday in Iwakuni City, Yamaguchi Prefecture, over whether to accept the government's plan to relocate US carrier-borne aircraft to the US Marines Corps' Iwakuni Air Station in the city. Voter turnout was 58.68%, exceeding the 50% turnout necessary to count votes. The results showed that about 90% of the voters rejected the relocation plan. Meeting the press after learning of the results, Mayor Katsusuke Ihara stated, "I would like to transmit the citizens' voice to the central government, urging it to rescind the relocation plan." The government still intends to aim for a final agreement with Washington on US force realignment before the end of the month. But the results of the Iwakuni referendum may affect talks on US force realignment. 6) First local plebiscite carries tremendous weight for central government ASAHI (Page 1) (Full) March 13, 2006 Commentary The Japanese government plans to produce a final report in late March with the US government after working out details on what was agreed upon with Washington last October and obtaining local understanding. Yesterday's referendum in Iwakuni, Yamaguchi Prefecture, in which the vast majority said no to the relocation of US carrier-borne aircraft, was a serious blow to the plans of the central government. The local opinion revealed in the nation's first plebiscite on US force realignment carries significant weight. In the interim report released by the Japanese and US governments last October, the Japanese government pledged that it would complete coordination with local areas. US Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Richard Lawless has also indicated that the Japanese government had promised to realize local coordination. Despite that, Chief Cabinet Secretary SHINZO ABE stated, "Once Japan and the US reach an accord in the bilateral talks, that will be the final agreement." The Japanese government has been slow to win consent from local areas. The results of the Iwakuni plebiscite have now presented the government with a hefty task. A government source commented, "It has now become impossible to win Iwakuni's consent ahead of the final agreement." The focus will TOKYO 00001306 005 OF 013 shift to whether the government can win local consent over the planned relocation of the US Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station in Okinawa. Coordination with Nago, the relocation site for the Futenma airfield, has been experiencing difficulties. Defense Agency Director General Fukushiro Nukaga held talks last week with Okinawa Gov. Keiichi Inamine and Nago Mayor Yoshikazu Shimabukuro in which signs of making arrangements finally emerged. A government official predicted: "Following Iwakuni's plebiscite, Nago residents are expected to put up stiff resistance. Residents of Kanagawa and Tokyo will probably not accept plans so easily." If the government fails on Futenma, a chain of opposition may spread nationwide. The government's efforts for Futenma will become a test that could affect the overall US force realignment plan. Talks with the US have been following a rocky path. There is a view in the government that some US government officials have questions about the approach of reaching an agreement by setting a deadline. The government must put greater efforts into local coordination, postponing the deadline if necessary, rather than forcing matters through. 7) Government to give priority to Japan-US agreement on US force realignment despite Iwakuni referendum; Will quickly study local economic stimulus measures NIHON KEIZAI (Page 1) (Full) March 13, 2006 In the wake of yesterday's Iwakuni plebiscite, in which a majority of voters rejected the relocation of US carrier-borne aircraft to the city, the government and ruling coalition intend to proceed with local coordination carefully regarding the planned US force realignment. The government plans to establish a council to discuss local economic stimulus measures with affected local governments and study the creation of a subsidy system for municipal governments. Because local referendums are nonbinding and have no power on state policy, the government will not make any changes to its plan to relocate carrier-borne aircraft from the US Atsugi base in Nakagawa Prefecture to Iwakuni. The government will also aim to reach a final agreement with the US later this month. The government, however, fears that this negative trend could spread to talks with other local areas, which have been stalled. Liberal Democratic Party Security Research Commission Chairman Taku Yamasaki and others have advised Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to speed up efforts to map out promotion measures with affected local governments. The government and ruling coalition are expected to expedite their efforts. The interim report released by Tokyo and Washington last October specified the relocation of Army 1st Corps headquarters from Washington state to Camp Zama in Kanagawa Prefecture. As a step to reduce the burden on Atsugi, the report specified the redeployment of carrier-borne aircraft to Iwakuni. If realized, Iwakuni will host some 60 additional aircraft, raising the total number of US aircraft there to nearly 120. Iwakuni is expected to TOKYO 00001306 006 OF 013 overtake Kadena Air Base, which is one of the largest air bases in the Far East. 8) Realignment of US forces in Japan: Japan estimates its financial burden to be 3 trillion yen; US "willing to return some" control of air traffic over Yokota base NIHON KEIZAI (Page 1) (Full) March 12, 2006 The government has estimated its financial burden relating to the realignment of US forces in Japan to top 3 trillion yen, sources revealed yesterday. The cost includes the transfer expenses for US Marines from Okinawa to Guam and the construction of an alternate facility for the relocation of the US Futenma Air Station to the coastline of Camp Schwab. The government plans to appropriate money in its defense budget over 10 or so years. This plan is being discussed within the government. In working-level talks in Hawaii on March 7-11 of foreign and defense officials from Japan and the United States on the realignment of US forces in Japan, Japanese officials elaborated on the estimation. Additionally, Japan called for a full return of control of the airspace over Yokota Air Base, currently held by US forces, but the United States asked Japan to accept a partial return. Negotiations on this matter will continue, but both sides are likely to come to a conclusion regarding a partial reduction of air traffic control. Japan and the US have reached a general agreement on the return of portions of Sagami Depot and Camp Zama. Of the 3-trillion-yen estimate, major portions are occupied by the cost of the construction of an alternative facility relating to the transfer of Futenma Air Station, estimated at more than one trillion yen, as well as the expenses of transferring Marines to Guam, estimated at about 940 billion yen. On the Guam transfer, Japan has asked the US to share in the cost, but some in the US have called on Japan to bear 50% -75% of the cost. In addition, Japan is expected to outlay a total of 1.5 trillion yen for: 1) improvement of Iwakuni Marine Corps Air Station with the transfer of US carrier-based aircraft from the US Naval Air Facility Atsugi; 2) improvement of the aircraft hanger and other facilities with the transfer of air tankers from Futenma Air Station to Kanoya Base; and 3) improvement of the runway at the training ground due to the shift of the training site for F-15s based at Kadena Air Base. With no provision in the Japan-US Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) regarding financial assistance for overseas US military facilities, the government will incorporate a provision creating a legal basis for Japan to pay expenses related to the Guam transfer in a bill intended to promote the realignment of US forces in Japan. The bill will be submitted to the Diet this April. Japan and the US will decide on a final report on the realignment of US forces in Japan during a meeting of the Security Consultative Committee (2 plus 2) of foreign and defense ministers slated for late this month. Although local coordination TOKYO 00001306 007 OF 013 has been difficult, Chief Cabinet Secretary ABE stated, "The accord Japan and the US will reach in consultations will be the final agreement." On the expenses relating to the realignment of US forces in Japan, the government will outlay the initial cost from the reserve fund of the fiscal 2006 budget. Starting next fiscal year, the government plans to include it in the defense budget. 9) Realignment of US forces in Japan: Japan's financial burden estimated at 3 trillion yen; Exceptional treatment difficult; SDF may be streamlined NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full) March 13, 2006 Analysis Japan may find it necessary to streamline the Defense Agency (JDA) and the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) if it outlays the estimated 3 trillion yen concerning the realignment of US forces in Japan from its defense budget. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) is dismissive of raising any particular budgets, including defense. Given this, the government has to somehow appropriate the estimated cost in the defense budget. Defense-related expenditures in the fiscal 2006 budget bill are approximately 4.8 trillion yen. Three trillion yen would account for 60% of that amount. Even if the 3 trillion yen is appropriated over 10 years, an outlay of 300 billion yen on average for a single fiscal year will be necessary. The JDA will look for ways to reduce the JDA's budget itself, for instance, by establishing a new framework for expenses related to the Japan-US Special Action Committee (SACO) and utilizing yen loans from the Japan Bank for International Cooperation. The huge financial burden will make the government's accountability grow. The realignment of US forces in Japan is a part of the US military's global strategy to deal with terrorism and other new threats, and it will give a boost to the fusion of the US military and the SDF. On the security front, this realignment is significant indeed, but it is essential for the government to seek national understanding, given that the people are forced to bear the vast financial burden. On March 10, Foreign Minister Taro Aso expressed caution about incorporating the cost of the construction of recreational facilities in Japan's financial burden relating to the relocation of US Marines from Okinawa to Guam, noting: "Some assert that matters that are not considered to be directly linked to (Okinawa's burden reduction and maintenance of deterrent force) should be dropped. I agree." Bargaining between Japan and the US is likely to heat up towards the end of this month, the planned deadline for a final report to be released by Japan and the US. 10) Japan, US in agreement on full return of three bases in Okinawa - Naha port, Makiminato area, Camp Kuwae MAINICHI (Top play) (Full) March 12, 2006 By Yozo Furumoto TOKYO 00001306 008 OF 013 In the working-level talks of defense and foreign officials on the realignment of US forces in Japan, which began in Hawaii on March 7, the Japanese and US governments on March 10 (March 11, Japan time) agreed in principle to return all of three US bases and on the partial return of one base, all of which are located in the south-central area in Okinawa Prefecture. This reversion is a main means of alleviating the prefecture's burden. Bolstered by this agreement, Tokyo intends to seek local understanding for the planned relocation of the Futenma Air Station to the coastal area of Camp Schwab, which has foundered. Bases that will be returned altogether to Japan are: Naha Military Port in Naha City, with an area of 56 hectares; Makiminato Service Area in Urasoe City, with an area of 274 hectares; and Camp Kuwae (Camp Lester) in Chatan Town, with an area of 107 hectares. A partial return will occur in Camp Zukeran, covering a few municipalities, including Chatan Town, with an area of 643 hectares. The general agreement reached this time on the base return realizes the plan specified in the interim report on the return of a sizable scale of land south of the Kadena Air Base. This base return will be specified in the final report to be finalized by the end of this month. Naha Military Port is a hub for transporting personnel and goods. Following its reversion to Japan, an alternative facility is expected to be constructed in an area adjacent to the civilian port in Urasoe City. The Makiminato Service Area is a complex of warehouses for US forces. Discussions will continue on a plan to scale down and transfer its functions to other US bases in Okinawa. Camp Kuwae is a camp composed mainly of barracks. Most of the area has been already decided in the final report of the Japan-US Special Action Committee (SACO) to be returned to Japan. Following the agreement this time on the full return of the base, the site will be reorganized. Regarding Camp Zukeran, there is a plan to transfer the naval hospital in Camp Kuwae there. Japan has agreed on a partial return of the base because of US opposition to the transfer of the telecommunications facility. The general agreement will bring about the return of nearly 1,500 hectares of land to Okinawa. 11) On cost sharing of relocating three US military facilities in Okinawa, Japan proposes in deputy-director-level talks "under 4 billion dollars" ASAHI (Page 2) (Excerpts) March 13, 2006 In the talks on US force realignment held through March 11 by the Japanese and US foreign and defense deputy directors, both sides confirmed that the US military would completely return three facilities in Okinawa to Japan. The three facilities are the Naha Military Port in Naha City, the Marine Corps' Makiminato Service Area in Urazoe City, and Camp Kuwae in Chatan City. The Japanese and US governments will incorporate the plan in their final report due out at the end of March. Both sides also agreed in general that the US would partially return Camp Zama in Kanagawa Prefecture, where the US Army's new TOKYO 00001306 009 OF 013 joint operation headquarters will be established, as well as Sagami Depot in Sagamihara City. Regarding the cost of constructing facilities under a plan to relocate Marines in Okinawa to Guam that totals about 8 billion dollars, or about 940 billion yen, Japan insisted in the talks that it would pay less than 4 billion dollars. Japan and the US remained unable to work out the details of the cost-sharing plan, so they will discuss the issue in the next round of talks and beyond. Under the US force realignment plan, most of the about 8,000 Marines being removed from Okinawa would be transferred to Guam. As for Japan's share, the US was looking into a plan for Japan to pay 75% of the total relocation cost. 12) Japan, US agree on plan on US military's partial return of airspace near Yokota base by 2009, as measure to prevent near- misses ASAHI (Page 1) (Excerpts) March 13, 2006 The Japanese and US governments agreed in talks held through March 11 in Hawaii by their foreign and defense deputy director generals that the US military would partially return the control of airspace around Yokota Air Base in Tokyo. The US would return mainly the top layer in the southern part of the airspace, possibly by 2009, when the number of commercial flights is expected to increase by 40% over the present level, as Haneda Airport will be expanded. Under an agreement between Japan and the US, some 470 flights a day by Japanese commercial planes avoid the US-controlled airspace around Yokota. Some experts have pointed to this as a cause of near-miss incidents. If the plan is realized, flight times will be shorted by up to 9 minutes, and the risk of near-misses will be eased. 13) Gov't to give up on completing GSDF withdrawal from Iraq in May SANKEI (Page 2) (Abridged) March 11, 2006 Japan will substantially delay its planned withdrawal of Ground Self-Defense Force troops currently deployed in the southern Iraqi city of Samawah, sources said yesterday. In Iraq, the ongoing political process for its recovery of sovereignty has now become fluid due to the recent deterioration of the local security situation. Meanwhile, the US government has asked Japan to forego its scheduled pullout. As it stands, the Japanese government will give up on its plan to complete the withdrawal of GSDF troops in May. The government is now beginning to study replacing the Samawah-based GSDF detachment with a new one to continue Japan's assistance with Iraqi reconstruction. 14) Taepodong 3 under development: US military official SANKEI (Page 3) (Abridged) March 11, 2006 Washington, Takashi Arimoto North Korea is developing the Taepodong 3, an advanced intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking anywhere TOKYO 00001306 010 OF 013 in the United States, US Forces Korea (USFK) Commander Bell testified before the US House of Representatives Armed Services Committee in a hearing held March 9. It is the first time a high- ranking US military official has clarified North Korea's ongoing development of the Taepodong 3 missile. The commander noted in the hearing that the Taepodong 3 outranges the Taepodong 1, which has a range of more than 1,500 kilometers and was test-launched in 1998, and the Taepodong 2, which has a range of about 3,500- 6,000 kilometers. "The Taepodong 3 is capable of reaching not only Alaska but also the entire United States," the commander said. The Taepodong 3 is an update of the Taepodong 2 and is believed to be a three-stage missile. It reportedly has a range of more than 12,000 kilometers. 15) Agriculture Minister on suspected BSE case in US: "No effect on import resumption" NIHON KEIZAI (Page 1) (Full) March 13, 2006 Koji Ichimura, London In reference to the discovery of a cow that tested positive for BSE in a routine test in the US, Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Minister Shoichi Nakagawa, now visiting Britain for a meeting of the World Trade Organization (WTO),stated on March 11: "I heard about the case in detail from US Agriculture Secretary Johanns. But the case is not likely to have any effect SIPDIS (on the issue of whether Japan should resume imports) for now." Secretary Johanns reported on the case directly to Nakagawa SIPDIS during a WTO ministerial meeting. The Agriculture Ministry intends to watch the US government's process of determining the results of ongoing detailed tests carefully. There are cases in which cows testing positive for BSE in regular tests were later found free of the disease in more detailed tests. Nakagawa's comment also reflects the fact that the BSE-suspected cow is not eligible for export to Japan, because Japan's condition for exports is only beef from cattle 20 months or younger. The import of US beef has been suspended since vertebral columns were found in a Japan-bound shipment this January. If a new case of BSE is confirmed, consumers' concerns about US beef will inevitably grow stronger. Recovering consumer trust is indispensable for Japan's resumption of US beef imports. The result of the detailed tests might affect the timing for Japan to reopen its market. 16) Government to ask US for detailed information on possible case of BSE TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 1) (Full) March 13, 2006 A possible case of BSE, which could be the third, has been reported in the US. The Japanese government will determine its future response after obtaining detailed information from the US Department of Agriculture. Tokyo takes the view that this case will not immediately affect the issue of whether to resume US beef imports, but cautious views about a resumption of imports TOKYO 00001306 011 OF 013 might spread among domestic consumers. The government intends to ask the US through diplomatic channels to present information on details, such as the age and birthplace of the cow in question. In the case of the US, though, only cattle over 30 months of age and dead cows are subject to BSE testing. Since Japan has set the condition that only beef from cattle 20 months of age or younger be imported, the government is of the view that even if the cow tests positive, there will be little impact on bilateral beef talks. However, now that the sloppy US processing has been exposed in the recent case of a specified risk material found in a shipment to Japan, Japanese consumers may have stronger concerns about the safety of US beef. 17) Talks between Japanese, US agriculture officials; US calls on Japan to resume beef imports at early date NIHON KEIZAI (Page 5) (Full) March 11, 2006 Agriculture Minister Shoichi Nakagawa, now visiting the US, on Mar. 10 met with Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns. During the talks, Johanns said that the US would formally reply next week to questions asked by the Japanese side regarding the US report on the inclusion of vertebral columns in a beef shipment to Japan. He once again called on Japan to resume imports of US beef at an early date, saying, "The US will do anything it can do for Japan." Meeting the press after the talks, Nakagawa said: "Now I am waiting for the US reply. I have not yet made a reply regarding the next stage." He thus noted that he never referred to conditions for lifting the second ban on US beef imports. 18) Economic talks with ASEAN to be resumed next month after hiatus of 8 months: Priority to be given to FTA talks; Speedy trade negotiations eyed NIHON KEIZAI (Page 1) (Excerpts) March 11, 2006 The government will resume free trade agreement (FTA) talks with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in April after a hiatus of eight months. Learning lessons from the strained talks with the organization in the past to sign a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (EPA),which covers procedures for settling disputes and the protection of intellectual property rights as well, the government will aim for speedy talks by giving priority to an FTA. It aims to reach a consensus next March. The government has decided to switch to speedy trade talks by giving priority to signing FTAs instead of EPAs, which require negotiations on broad areas. FTA talks with ASEAN started in April 2005 but bogged down that August. Behind Japan's decision to restart talks with ASEAN is the fact that China, which had been positive about pursuing trade talks with the ASEAN, has already signed an FTA with it. South Korea has also reached an agreement with it in general principle. Talks with ASEAN will focus on scrapping tariffs on goods, TOKYO 00001306 012 OF 013 including agricultural products and mined and manufactured products. Once an FTA is concluded, the focus will be shifted to the possibility of signing an EPA. It will not be easy to reach an agreement, even if the talks focus only on an FTA. The greatest obstacle is agricultural products, including rice. Japan intends to call for making rice an exception to the pact, as was the case with Thailand and the Philippines, but whether ASEAN will agree to that is not clear. 19) UNSC expansion resolution; Japan finds it difficult to present due to mountain of other key reform issues, including reform of Secretariat; UN members no longer interested in issue YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) March 12, 2006 An effort to reform the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to meet Japan's bid to secure a permanent seat on it will likely bog down. Talks at the UN on such key issues as the establishment of a human rights council and reform of the Secretariat are facing difficulties. In addition, many members are no longer interested in UNSC expansion. Japan has made efforts to present its own resolution to reform the UNSC, but it now finds itself in a situation in which it has no other option but to give up on that initiative. UN Secretary General Annan on Mar. 10 indicated to reporters that under the present circumstances, in which there are a mountain of pending reforms, including the establishment of a human rights council, reform of the Secretariat, revisions to various projects, and antiterrorism measures, it would be difficult to take up UNSC reform. His statement is a major step back from his usual contention that reform of the UN will not be completed without reforming the UNSC. US Ambassador to the UN Bolton, from whom Japan has sought cooperation for the drafting of a resolution, also told a news conference: "The US will not support any UNSC reform proposal. There are no proposals that will be able to obtain support from more than two-thirds of members at the General Assembly." He stressed that for the time being, efforts should be focused on reform of the Secretariat, noting, "Last year's overheated discussions on reforming the UNSC could spoil the atmosphere for discussing other reform items." Confrontation between advanced industrialized countries, which want to promote reform of the UNSC, and resistant developing countries is intensifying at the UN. Japan, Germany, India, and Brazil, which last year submitted a joint proposal for expanding the UNSC framework, are the only members that want to promote UNSC reform. A UN diplomatic source noted, "If Japan presents a UNSC expansion resolution under this atmosphere, it will only incur a negative reaction from other countries." Given that the G-4 plan fell through last year, Japan wants to produce results by September, characterizing this as round two of the fight. However, many government officials are skeptical about mapping out and submitting a resolution that is unlikely to be adopted. 20) Japan Desk director, Japan expert at US Department of State, to quit TOKYO 00001306 013 OF 013 MAINICHI SHIMBUN (Page 3) (Full) March 12, 2006 It was learned on Mar. 10 that Japan Desk Director David Straub, who is known as a Japan expert at the US Department of State, will leave his office in late April. Economic Minister Councilor James Zumwalt will replace him, according to a State Department source. Straub came into office as Japan Desk director in 2004. He is now serving as a point of contact with Japan on the BSE issue. 21) Poll: ABE tops all others at 54% as next premier TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Abridged) March 12, 2006 Chief Cabinet Secretary SHINZO ABE topped all others in terms of popularity for the post-Koizumi premiership, according to findings from a face-to-face nationwide public opinion survey conducted by the Japan Polling Association on March 4-5. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is slated to elect its new president to succeed Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in September. In the survey, respondents were asked to pick an appropriate person for the next prime minister. In response to this question, ABE stood at 54%, followed by former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda at 10% and Foreign Minister Taro Aso at SIPDIS 6%. Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki ranked fifth. In the survey, respondents were also asked if they thought Koizumi's successor should visit Yasukuni Shrine. In response, "no" accounted for 47%, with "yes" at 42%. Meanwhile, the leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) is also scheduled to elect its new president around that time. In a further question asking respondents to pick a candidate for the party's presidency, DPJ Vice President Ichiro Ozawa stood at 26%, followed by former DPJ President Naoto Kan at 24%, and DPJ Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama. The party's incumbent SIPDIS president, Seiji Maehara, was at 11%, apparently reflecting the party's recent email fiasco. SCHIEFFER