DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 03/03/06

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 14 TOKYO 001149

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SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 03/03/06


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INDEX:

(1) Spot poll on email fiasco

(2) Tasks to clear before removing ban on US beef imports:
Interview with Masahiko Yamada, agriculture minister in
Minshuto's "next cabinet"; Japan's inspection, approval to be
made precondition

(3) Prefectural assembly to meet Mar. 24 on X-band radar
installation at Shariki

(4) Budget bill clears Lower House; What will become of remaining
half of Diet session? Given breathing room, LDP already in mode
for party presidential election; Three potential successors to
Koizumi come up with original policies

(5) Is paying homage at Yasukuni Shrine a matter of the heart?
Examining the prime minister's constitutional view from
perspective of separation of politics and religion

(6) Self-destruction of Minshuto (Part 1): Immatureness exposed

(7) Self-destruction of Minshuto (Part 2): President Maehara
manages the party as if he is still in college

(8) World Click column by Yoichi Kato: US alarmed by rising
China, giving warning to strategy-less Japan

ARTICLES:

(1) Spot poll on email fiasco

YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full)
March 3, 2006

Questions & Answers
(Figures shown in percentage.)

Q: Do you support the Koizumi cabinet?

Yes 54.8
No 35.0
Other answers (O/A) 2.8
No answer (N/A) 7.4

Q: Which political party do you support now? Pick only one.

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 42.9
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 15.1
New Komeito (NK) 3.6
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 1.6
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1.4
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0.1
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) ---
Other political parties 0.1
None 31.4
N/A 3.6

Q: The DPJ offered apologies for the recent email uproar,
explaining that former Livedoor Co. President Horie's email
allegedly directing his staff to send money to LDP Secretary
General Takebe's son was a fake. Is this DPJ explanation

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convincing to you?

Yes 10.9
No 77.0
N/A 12.0


Q: The DPJ has decided on a half-year suspension of party
membership for its House of Representatives member, Hisayasu
Nagata, who took up this email issue in the Diet, and DPJ Diet
Affairs Committee Chairman Noda has resigned from his party post.
Is this way of taking responsibility over the email fiasco
convincing to you?

Yes 19.2
No 70.4
N/A 10.4

Q: Do you think Nagata should resign from his Diet seat to take
responsibility?

Yes 60.1
No 31.7
N/A 8.3

Q: DPJ President Maehara kept saying the email was highly
credible. Do you think such a response was appropriate?

Yes 11.1
No 78.2
N/A 10.7

Q: Do you think DPJ President Maehara should resign as his
party's head to take responsibility for the email uproar?

Yes 45.2
No 45.4
N/A 9.4

Q: Do you think the DPJ is competent enough to take office?

Yes 15.5
No 71.6
N/A 13.0


Q: Do you think the email uproar has increased the public
distrust of politics?

Yes 67.5
No 25.5
N/A 7.0

Polling methodology: The survey was conducted March 1-2 over the
telephone on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. A
total of 1,662 households with one or more voters were sampled,
and valid answers were obtained from 932 persons (56.1%).

(2) Tasks to clear before removing ban on US beef imports:
Interview with Masahiko Yamada, agriculture minister in
Minshuto's "next cabinet"; Japan's inspection, approval to be
made precondition


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ASAHI (Page 15) (Full)
March 3, 2006

I've visited the US many times since late 2003, when the first
case of BSE was reported there, as a member of the inspection
team of the Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) or of the House
of Representatives Agriculture, and Fisheries Committee. I found,
through investigations at slaughterhouses and reports from
whistleblowers, how sloppy the US government's anti-BSE
inspection system is.

These are the four essential measures to prevent BSE: Blanket
testing; removal of specified risk materials (SRM); a
computerized cattle-identification system; and restrictions on
animal feed. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA),however,
has been negative about introducing these requirements. The
department's negative stance probably results from its being
under the strong influence of the National Cattlemen's Beef
Association (NCBA),which is lobbying for leading cattle farmers
giving priority to their own profits. It is also true that NCBA
is an influential support group for the Republican Bush
administration.

Vertebral columns, a SRM, were discovered in a US beef shipment
to Japan. This case showed the sloppiness of US safety
procedures. Japan bans the use of BSE-prone meat-and-bone meal as
animal feed. In contrast, the US has introduced insufficient
regulations on animal feed. I heard this directly from an officer
of the US General Accounting Office, but USDA does not send out a
warning even if it finds farmers feed chicks, pigs, and cattle
meat-and-bone meal from cows, so the possibility cannot be ruled
out that the US has shipped meat-and-bone meal containing SRM to
Japan and other countries.

Senior American officers have said that in the US, there are 95
million heads of cattle, 20 times more than Japan, but only two
BSE-infected cows have been found. According to the US
Administration Inspection Bureau, however, the US has not
conducted satisfactory inspections on downer cows unable to walk
and has taken even measures to exclude cattle suspected of being
infected with BSE from those subject to inspection. As pointed
out by Japan's Food Safety Commission, if the same inspection
methods as Japan's were adopted in the US, about 200 BSE-positive
cows would have been found.

Despite such uncertain factors, the Japanese government, under
pressure from the US, decided to resume US beef imports last
December. This decision was apparently a mistake. The discovery
of vertebral columns in a shipment could have been predicted,
considering sloppy US safety processing.

The government reimposed its ban on US beef imports immediately
after the discovery of the Beef Export Verification violation,
but it also should stop beef imports from Canada, because US beef
could reach Japan through Canada.

It is also suspected that US beef could flow into Japan via
Mexico. Though the European Union (EU) gives that nation the same
evaluation on the risk of BSE as that for the US, Japan's
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Ministry deems Mexico a
country free from BSE risk. Recently, it was learned that US beef
was exported to South Korea via Mexico, so Seoul stopped beef
imports from Mexico. The Food Safety Commission should urgently

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reassess the risk of BSE on beef from Mexico.

The agreement reached between Japan and the US last December
allows authorized meat-processing facilities to export products
to Japan even without Japan's inspections. This agreement
indisputably reflects Tokyo's concession to Washington's
highhandedness. South Korea has imported products only from the
facilities it authorized through its own inspections. Japan
should make this measure a minimum condition for resuming
imports.

I do not mean, though, that all American beef should be shut out
of Japan. There are sincere producers and meat packers, even
while leading farmers and the US government are highhanded.

There is the option of importing beef only from producer groups
introducing the computerized cattle-identification system and
packing plants ready to voluntarily carry out blanket testing.
The Japanese government must keep in mind the fact that Japan's
food safety cannot be protected if it is completely under the
thumb of the US.

(3) Prefectural assembly to meet Mar. 24 on X-band radar
installation at Shariki

TOO NIPPO (Page 2) (Full)
February 28, 2006

The Aomori prefectural assembly is expected to hold a plenary
session March 24 to deliberate on the planed installation of a US
military early warning radar system, called the X-band radar, at
the Air Self-Defense Force's Shariki Detachment base in the city
of Tsugaru, Aomori Prefecture, sources said yesterday. In March,
after the prefectural assembly's plenary session, the Aomori
prefectural government will brief local residents on the planned
radar installation in the city of Tsugaru and other
municipalities.

In March, the Japanese and US governments will release a final
report on the realignment of US forces in Japan. The report will
incorporate the X-band radar installation. The government will
presumably ask Aomori Prefecture in early March at the earliest
to cooperate on the radar's location. The prefectural government
will provide explanations to the prefectural assembly during its
regular session.

The prefectural assembly is expected to ask Defense Agency,
Defense Facilities Administration Agency, and other government
officials to attend the plenary session. Meanwhile, the
prefectural government has set up a panel of experts and has
asked the panel to study the radar installation. The panel's
members are also expected to be called on to attend the
prefectural assembly's plenary session.

The prefectural government is expected to judge on whether to
accept the radar installation, based on the plenary session and
local briefing. The Liberal Democratic Party is positive about
accepting the radar deployment from the perspective of national
defense.

Local communities ask Tsugaru municipal assembly to send in
petition to government against radar installation


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Japan and the United States are likely to install the X-band
radar, an advanced mobile early warning radar system developed by
US forces, at the ASDF's Shariki Detachment base in the city of
Tsugaru. Concerning this issue, a local group of Tsugaru citizens

SIPDIS
and other neighboring municipal residents opposing the radar
deployment petitioned the city's municipal assembly in written
form yesterday to send in an anti-deployment statement to the
government.

In its petition, the group raises an objection to the radar
deployment, reasoning that the deployment could intensify
tensions in Northeast Asia, that the deployment conflicts with
the constitutionally prohibited right of collective self-defense,
that the radar site could be under attack, and that radiowaves
could affect the environment. The group has asked the municipal
assembly to send in an anti-deployment state to the Defense
Agency and the Defense Facilities Administration Agency.

More than ten local residents from Tsugaru, Goshogawara,
Hirosaki, and other municipalities organized the group on Feb.

18. "We'd like to continue working on other neighboring
municipalities," says one of its secretariat's members.

The Tsugaru municipal assembly will deliberate on the petition in
a closed session on March 3.

(4) Budget bill clears Lower House; What will become of remaining
half of Diet session? Given breathing room, LDP already in mode
for party presidential election; Three potential successors to
Koizumi come up with original policies

MAINICHI (Page 3) (Excerpts)
March 3, 2006

While the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ = Minshuto) remaining in
chaos over the phony email scandal, the fiscal 2006 budget bill
yesterday cleared the Lower House at the initiative of the ruling
camp. The government and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) now
look composed because of the passage of the budget bill and the
self-destruction of the opposition DPJ. They are now shifting
focus from Diet policies to the party presidential election in
September. In the first half of the Diet session, cabinet
ministers regarded as potential successors to Koizumi faced a
barrage of questions, indicating growing anticipation for the
LDP's presidential election.

During a Lower House Budget Committee meeting on Mar. 2, LDP
member Koji Omi questioned three LDP members who are regarded as
potential post-Koizumi contenders about their views on measures
to deal with the nation's declining birth rate. Budget Committee
meetings, which are televised, are the best opportunity for the
three to play up their policies. It is at the same time a double-
edged sword, because their replies could raise doubts about their
ability to handle Diet questions. Opposition party members are
also asking questions in order to put them to the test. The
current Diet session is taking on an aspect of being a
preliminary skirmish for the LDP presidential election.

Abe called for the continuation of Koizumi's structural reform
policy when he replied during a Budget Committee meeting on Feb.
6, "Our reform policy is correct." He, on the other hand,
indicated a cautious stance to the proposed amendment to the
Imperial House Law designed to allow females and their

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descendants to ascend the Imperial throne. He said, "We should be
aware of the fact that males have ascended the Imperial throne
and consider how best the Imperial succession system can be
maintained, bearing the significance of that fact in mind."

Referring to the criticism by China and South Korea of the prime
minister's visits to Yasukuni Shrine, Aso at a Budget Committee
meeting on Feb. 14 defended the prime minister, noting, "China
and South Korea are the only countries in Asia with which Japan
cannot hold summits."

However when it comes to the question of whether he himself will
visit Yasukuni, Aso on a TV program on Feb. 19 kept his distance
from Koizumi, saying, "Priority should be given not to individual
interests but to national interests."

Both Abe and Aso appear anxious to display their originality
through Diet replies, while sharing, in principle, the Koizumi
policy. Tanigaki during a Budget Committee meeting on Jan. 27
indicated concern, "Income disparity could emerge in the process
of free competition, but it is not desirable that this become
permanent." Another potential candidate Yasuo Fukuda, former
chief cabinet secretary, is still refraining from making any open
comment on the presidential election.

A senior New Komeito official noted that the DPJ's strength would
affect the LDP presidential election, saying, "If the DPJ is
strong, Mr. Abe would be appropriate for the election, because he
is strong in elections, but if the DPJ is weak, the range of
options for presidential candidates would widen."

Prime Minister again bullish about maintaining his power base

Now that the fiscal 2006 budget has cleared the Lower House, how
Prime Minister Koizumi will maintain his power base through Sept.
is another focus of attention. Though his administration was at
one time a lame duck because of four setbacks, including the
Livedoor incident, the prime minister has completely recovered.
He told reporters on the evening of Mar. 2, "Potential post-
Koizumi contenders must apply themselves to their own duties as
cabinet ministers." He added: "Being a presidential candidate
entails an enormous amount of tension. I think it is a good
opportunity for them to learn discipline."

The prime minister intends to have the basic policy guidelines on
economic and fiscal management and structural reforms for fiscal
2007, as well as the administrative reform promotion bill,
adopted at cabinet meetings in June. A battle over a package
reform of expenditures and revenues, including the issue of
hiking the consumption tax, is expected to heat up. The issue is
bound to become a major point of contention for post-Koizumi
contenders. It is expected that the prime minister will try to
maintain his power base by orchestrating the battle.

Moves to collect as many faction members as possible intensifying

Moves to collect as many faction members as possible are
intensifying in the LDP. The 82 first-time lawmakers are the main
targets of recruiting. Nearly half of them have already joined
political factions despite Prime Minister Koizumi's call for them
not to do so. Three factions affiliated with the former Miyazawa
faction (Kochi group) are showing moves to reunite. The former
Horiuchi faction, whose chairmanship had been vacant, has adopted

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a two-representative system. LDP factions are thus taking
complicated movements, including moves to expand or defend their
organizations.

First-time lawmakers, once called Koizumi's "children," no longer
have the sense of unity they showed shortly after the election.
An increasing number of them are now joining factions. Alarmed
about the trend, those who are determined to remain independent
have formed a group for those who are not affiliated with
factions. However, veteran lawmakers predicted that the battle to
recruit faction members will become fierce, noting, "Such a group
will disintegrate sooner or later."

But with an aspect of a generational change in the presidential
race among Abe, the most promising candidate, and the other three
likely candidates, factions will not have the decisive power they
enjoyed in the past. Various factions are trying to strengthen
their unity, though it is expected that mid-ranking and junior
members would cross faction lines to support Abe. There is no
knowing how successful they will be at defending their
organizations.

(5) Is paying homage at Yasukuni Shrine a matter of the heart?
Examining the prime minister's constitutional view from
perspective of separation of politics and religion

ASAHI (Page 15) (Abridged)
March 2, 2006

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has repeatedly defended his
visits to Yasukuni Shrine by citing the freedom of thought and
conscience guaranteed in Article 19 of the Constitution. Meeting
with fierce criticism from China and South Korea, he also
commented, "Is it proper for foreign governments to intervene in
a matter of the heart?" How does he find the principle of
separation of politics and religion? Is it proper for the
country's chief executive officer to brush aside his
controversial shrine visits as a matter of the heart? Koizumi's
constitutional view raises questions.

The government's view

Although the government's view has been inconsistent, it has
always made a distinction between official and private capacities
regarding the prime minister's Yasukuni visits. The government's
view is that the prime minister is entitled to his freedom of
religion as an individual, but a visit to the shrine in his
official capacity is subject to substantial constraints in
accordance with the constitutional principle of separation of
state and religion.

In 1975, Takeo Miki paid homage at Yasukuni on August 15, the
anniversary of Japan's World War II surrender. He was the first
post-World War II prime minister to do so. The government
explained that Miki visited there in his private capacity
because: (1) he did not use his official car; (2) he made an
offering from his pocket money; (3) he did not put his official
title when signing the book; and (4) he did not take any public
figures with him.

Three years later in 1978, Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda visited
the shrine. Fukuda also made an offering from his pocket money,
but he used an official vehicle and was accompanied by official

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aides. In October that year, the government revealed the
following view at an Upper House Cabinet Committee meeting:

"As individuals, the prime minister and other state ministers are
entitled to the freedom of religion under the Constitution. They
are free to visit shrines and temples in their private capacity.
Their visits should be regarded as activities in private capacity
unless they are designated as government events or offerings are
made from the state coffers."

Before the Upper House Rules and Administration Committee in
November 1980, the government took the following view, which was
more direct than before:

"Questions remain about the constitutionality of visits to
Yasukuni Shrine by the prime minister and other state ministers
in their official capacity. They should refrain from visiting the
shrine as state ministers."

In 1985, an advisory panel to the chief cabinet secretary called
Council on Visits to Yasukuni Shrine by the Cabinet Ministers
produced a report urging the government to search for ways
allowing state ministers to visit the shrine without violating
the principle of separation of politics and religion. The report
essentially urged the government to turn around its view, posing
questions on the constitutionality of official visits. Based on
the report, Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone officially visited
the controversial shrine on Aug. 15 that year.

The government unveiled the following view at a Lower House
Cabinet Committee meeting in October 1985:

"Making a bow at the inner shrine or in front of shrine pavilions
during a visit to Yasukuni Shrine by the prime minister for the
purpose of offering condolences to the war dead does not
contravene the principle of separation of state and religion."

This serves as the foundation of the government's view today.

Court decisions

The prime minister's visits to the shrine have often found their
way to court, but the Supreme Court has yet to make any decision
on their constitutionality. Lower courts' decisions have been
split, however.

In September 2005, the Osaka District Court ruled Koizumi's
shrine visits unconstitutional. The court also said:

"The separation of state and religion resulted from the fact that
some religious organizations had suffered severe persecution when
State Shinto was regarded as de facto state religion (up to the
end of WWII)."

The court ruled that Koizumi's visits to the inner shrine's
religious activities gave the public the impression that the
state supported Yasukuni Shrine.

The Fukuoka District Court, which also ruled Koizumi's shrine
visits unconstitutional, said in April 2004:

"It is not proper for the prime minister to visit Yasukuni
Shrine, which honors the war dead of World War II."

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The court took seriously the fact that Koizumi visited Yasukuni
knowing that his action would draw domestic and international
criticism.

The Tokyo High Court, though, ruled in September 2005 that
Koizumi's visits to the shrine were religious activities to pay
tribute to the spirits of the war dead based on his personal
belief, while indicating that official visits might be
unconstitutional. The court took the view that Koizumi was
allowed to visit the shrine in line with freedom of religion.

Men in power constrained by Constitution; Private and public
matters must not be mixed up

By Yoichi Higuchi, constitutional scholar

Visiting Yasukuni Shrine was a campaign pledge for Prime Minister
Koizumi, and he has made it a political issue. It is improper for
the prime minister to link his shrine visits to the freedom of
conscience guaranteed in Article 19 of the Constitution.

Needless to say, the Constitution is intended to put constraints
on words and actions by men in power in order to protect private
citizens.

As prime minister, Koizumi represents power himself, so it is
illogical to buttress his argument on shrine visits with the
Constitution. Questions also remain if he is really aware of why
separation of politics and religion was incorporated in the
Constitution of Japan. The concept was originally born in the
Christian world. In the case of Japan, the government used State
Shinto to raise national morale, a secular purpose, during the
war, and the regret for that led to the stipulation of separation
of religion and state in the Constitution.

In view of the fact that the principle of separation of
government and religion resulted from state Shintoism, the prime
minister's visit to Yasukuni Shrine that played a major role in
Japan's militaristic past would cause a problem naturally in
regard to the Constitution.

The prime minister is responsible to serve in the best interests
of the country. Koizumi, who has repeatedly dismissed domestic
and international criticism of his shrine visits as a matter of
the heart, is clearly mixing up personal matters and official
duties as person in such a position.

(6) Self-destruction of Minshuto (Part 1): Immatureness exposed

YOMIURI (Page 1) (Slightly abridged)
March 2, 2006

The Weblogs opened up by Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto)
members have been deluged with floods of protests recently. The
following two messages are among those posted on the blog opened
by House of Representatives member Akihisa Nagashima: "You should
not be playing games, wasting our tax money." "You should look at
this problem not from the standpoint of a lawmaker but as a
Japanese citizen."

Minshuto has had to admit that its member's accusation of a cash
link between Livedoor Co. and a Liberal Democratic Party member's

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son was groundless. In this uproar, questions have been raised
about the qualification of Minshuto lawmakers.

Lower House member Hisayasu Nagata, who took up the e-mail issue,
was hospitalized in Tokyo on the night of Feb. 23 for being in
poor physical condition and was discharged at noon of Feb. 28. He
held a press conference the same day, but he did not attend the
Lower House plenary session held on the afternoon of Feb. 20,
prior to the press conference.

New Komeito Diet Policy Committee Chairman Junji Higashi
criticized Nagata for lacking the awareness of being a
politician, saying:

"H finally appeared in public again after having being in hiding
for a long time and having thrown the Diet into confusion, but he
did not show up in the plenary session. This shows how lightly he
has treated Diet affairs and what a highhanded posture he has
usually taken."

Though Nagata offered an apology in the press conference, he had
not yet apologized directly to Liberal Democratic Party Secretary
General Tsutomu Takebe.

In a joint plenary meeting of Minshuto members of both houses of
the Diet on Feb. 28, Lower House member Tetsundo Iwakuni
criticized Nagata: "Did he take proper action toward Mr. Takebe
prior to the press conference, for instance, by making a phone
call to offer an apology?"

Not only Nagata has come under fire. The e-mail furor exposed the
immatureness and carelessness of party leader Maehara and other
executive members. Maehara was tapped to lead the opposition
party, following its crushing defeat in the Lower House election
last September.

In a special executive meeting on the morning of Feb. 28, House
of Councillors member Satsuki Eda rapped Maehara, saying: "The
current executive is childish. It is impossible to set aside the
problem with makeshift measures."

Eda was disgusted at the "irresponsibility" of leader Maehara and
Secretary General Hatoyama. Maehara and Hatoyama had said on the

SIPDIS
morning of Feb. 28 that they would step down over the e-mail
problem, but they did not. Instead, Diet Affairs Committee
Chairman Noda offered to quit his post. A secretary to a Minshuto
lawmaker was appalled: "This party has no parent. When junior
members are about to head the wrong way, the party veterans don't
even try to stop them."

Until the Lower House election last year, Minshuto had steadily
increased the number of its seats. Observers analyzed the boost
was thanks to increased support from unaffiliated voters in urban
areas. There were cases in which young persons with little
experience in life got Diet member badges.

Minshuto once introduced a tutor system for the first-term
lawmakers elected in the 2003 Lower House election. The aim of
the organized education system was to overcome their "spiritual
weakness." But the system is now in limbo.

In the Feb. 28 joint plenary meeting of Minshuto members of both
houses of the Diet, House of Councillors member Toshio Ogawa

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stressed the necessity of the party's self-reproaching, saying:
"The recent (e-mail fiasco) might have made the public think that
it is undesirable to hand over political power to Minshuto." A
sense of alarm is gradually sweeping across the party. Members
fear that there may be no bright future for Minshuto, which is
being seen as a perennial opposition party with no capability to
assume the reins of government..

(7) Self-destruction of Minshuto (Part 2): President Maehara
manages the party as if he is still in college

YOMIURI (Page 1) (Full)
March 3, 2006

On the night of February 28 when Minshuto (Democratic Party of
Japan) President Seiji Maehara was forced to step down from his
post to take responsibility for the e-mail fiasco, seven members,
including Mitsuo Mitani and Keiro Kitagami, got together at a
Tokyo restaurant. The seven were elected for the first time to
the Diet in last year's House of Representatives election. They
were all concerned about the future of their party.

One lawmaker said:

"The current executive is a party of good friends or a group of
persons who have similar characteristics. They have no one who
can work behind-the-scenes. I wonder if the party can survive as
is."

Some junior lawmakers supporting Maehara even began to question
the party leadership, which is now exposed as incompetent,
witnessing party leaders' slapdash handling of the e-mail issue.

Maehara has managed the party along with his close friends,
including Yoshihiko Noda, who resigned as chairman of the Diet
Affairs Committee, Acting Secretary General Koichiro Genba, and
Goshi Hosono, his junior in Kyoto University. Maehara, Noda and
Genba are graduates of the Matsushita Institute of Government and
Management. A lawmaker affiliated with the now defunct Democratic
Socialist Party commented: "(Maehara) conducts politics just like
college students carrying out activities."

Maehara, who aims to fulfill strong leadership, tried to reach
internal consensuses on such basic policies as security and
constitutional amendment through his top-down management. For
example, without getting approval of the party, he stated in a
speech last December that China was a threat to Japan. He then
tried to make his view the party's.

Maehara's political methods are similar to those of Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who got postal privatization bills
through the Diet, refusing harmony and cooperation with anti-
postal reform forces in the LDP. Since Maehara has often left
Secretary General Hatoyama out of the loop, some party members

SIPDIS
dub him the "mini Koizumi." By calling anti-Koizumi lawmakers as
the forces of resistance, Koizumi won public support. One of the
reasons why Maehara cannot unify the party is that he does not
have a strategy, something that politicians who have managed to
clear a number of obstacles usually have developed.

Minshuto's local organizations and support groups of its
lawmakers are weak. Although Minshuto is regarded as a party that
might form a two-party system with the LDP, the main opposition

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party has only 35 local government assembly members, which means
that it is difficult for the party to observe views of voters and
local governments, lacking a sense of balance to give
consideration to a variety of views in the party.

Hiroshi Yamada, the head of Suginami Ward, dined with Maehara,
Noda and Genba on Feb. 7. Yamada, the three lawmakers' senior of
the Matsushita Institute of Government and Management, gave them
advice, saying, "You have to widen personal network as
politicians. I'm worried about your political activities. You
must have intelligent agents to establish information networks."

Maehara, however, only replied, "You can say that again."

The e-mail fiasco came about ten days later. Taking the
information obtained by lawmaker Hisayasu Nagata on faith, a few
members in the party executive decided to take it up at the Diet
-- a decision that led the party to self-destruction.

Bunmei Ibuki, a former labor minister, said in a meeting of his
faction on March 2:

"Senior lawmakers elected to the Diet a number of times have a
political sense of balance and guardedness. But Minshuto has
excluded such thinking in its management."

Ibuki's analysis is that this structural problem in Minshuto led
to the e-mail uproar.

Yesterday the executive was finally able to pick former Lower
House Vice Speaker Kozo Watanabe as chairman of its Diet Affairs
Committee. The appointment of Watanabe is probably their
afterthought to downplaying of "behind-the-scenes maneuvering" in
the party. Maehara's term as president will expire in September.
Minshuto members have to work hard against time to unite.

(8) World Click column by Yoichi Kato: US alarmed by rising
China, giving warning to strategy-less Japan

ASAHI (Page 15) (Full)
March 2, 2006

By Yoichi Kato, chief of the Asahi Shimbun America Bureau

Last week I was invited to a conference that discussed China's
growing influence, hosted by National Defense University (NDU) in
the United States. I was expected to speak about how Japan looks
at a rising China and what role Japan wants the US to play in
this context.

Foreigners invited to the conference besides me were scholars
from the Philippines and Thailand and a Mongolian ambassador to
the US.

The meeting was the last round of a serial seminar on China the
NDU had hosted over the past one year in cooperation with a
Washington-based think tank.

Recently a rising China has been a major topic in seminars as
well as books published here in the US

But political leaders in the US, unlike those in Japan, do not
openly describe China as a threat. Their general tendency is to

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try to look as closely as possible into in what direction China
will move in the future, for instance, how its economy will
develop. They also wonder what China is aiming to achieve in the
Asia-Pacific region and whether there is any possibility of
America's national interests being eroded by China.

Looking back on the situation in the US immediately after the
9/11 terrorist attacks (in 2001) five years ago, I really feel I
am now living in a different age.

At that time I was a guest researcher at NDU. Until Sept. 9 of
that year, major research courses and classes there had dealt
with China as the theoretical enemy the US would next have to
fight. But everything changed after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
With America's concern shifting to terrorism, China has turned
into a partner to fight terrorism together.

But America is again shifting its attitude toward China. Some in
the US have since mid-last year begun arguing that the US-China
honeymoon is over. This argument is leading to Americans being
alarmed by China.

There are a couple of conceivable reasons. First, the US is
becoming increasingly concerned about China's military buildup
now that the European Union (EU) is moving to lift the embargo on
arms exports there. Second, the US is becoming skeptical whether
China is serious about nuclear non-proliferation, given little
progress in the six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear
ambitions. In addition, China has been steadily expanding its
influence in Southeast Asia and Latin America. This move, too, is
irritating the US.

America's recent sense of alarm against China comes mainly from
China's long-term regional strategy rather than the immediate
task of how to deal with a possible Taiwan Strait crisis.

"China will eat America's lunch." This expression is often used
to describe China's erosion of America's influence in Southeast
Asia.

Is America's lunch actually being eaten by China? This question
has been the topic for discussions among experts (in the US).

"The US is losing," Professor Otto at the National War College
said.

"While China has an elaborated (regional) strategy under which it
is achieving good results, the US has no strategy and seems
unaware that the race has already started," the professor added,
criticizing the US.

In contrast, Georgetown University Professor Sutter takes an
opposite position. In January, he asserted at another meeting,
"China's influence in Asia is limited," dismissing the argument
that the US influence is fading away.

Although that argument has yet to be concluded, it is certain
that the US and China are in the midst of mega-competition.

The Navy-affiliated think tank CNA Corporation will shortly
release a book dealing with that argument. According to the
author, China's growing influence in Southeast Asia is likely to
have a more significant spillover on Japan and Taiwan than the

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US. The author concludes that Japan's lunch has been really eaten
up. An evidence of this, the author cited Japan's failed bid for
a permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council,
adding that some policy-planning officials of the nations in the
region are of the opinion that Japan is lacking a comprehensive
approach needed to deal with China's expanded influence.

In the NDU conference, I was asked about Japan: "How much
influence does Japan have in Asia?" "What is Japan's regional
strategy?"

I answered: "Japan has no regional strategy, although Japan's
Foreign Ministry does not agree with me." Following me, a scholar
from Thailand said: "We cannot expect much from Japan for it has
yet to become a normal country yet."

SCHIEFFER