OKAMOTO DESCRIBES DETERIORATING JAPAN-CHINA RELATIONS

UNCLAS THE HAGUE 000577



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E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: PREL, CH, KN, KS, RS, NL

SUBJ: OKAMOTO DESCRIBES DETERIORATING JAPAN-CHINA RELATIONS





1. Summary: Yukio Okamoto, former foreign policy advisor to

Prime Ministers Koizumi and Hashimoto, spoke in Amsterdam

March 14 on Japan-China relations. The talk, co-sponsored

by the Japanese Embassy and the Japanese Chamber of Commerce

and Industry in Amsterdam, drew several hundred Asian and

European businessmen, diplomats and academics. Okamoto

painted a frightening picture of the chill in Japanese

relations with China, as well as with Russia and the two

Koreas. End summary.



2. He focused on China's quest for resources, its

unsustainable economic development model, its military

growth, and its increasingly aggressive diplomatic posture.

He underlined the need for both China and Japan to address

honestly the issue of past Japanese aggression. Finally, he

noted that Japanese companies had begun diverting investment

from China to more hospitable countries, such as Vietnam.



3. Answering a senior Dutch diplomat's assertion that he

ignored the many positive aspects of the Japan-China

relationship, Okamoto said, "I'll be frank. We've been

playing with superficial rhetoric of Japan-China friendship

(since 1972 normalization),only to see that the

relationship has (this whole time) been eroding." He

expected relations to continue to deteriorate for some

years, even if the Japanese and Chinese governments took the

very difficult steps necessary to improve them.



4. Regarding natural resources, he said, "China's quest for

world resources is almost insatiable." "In Africa," he

continued, "China's willingness to bear up with instability

and corruption is resulting in a lockout of Japanese

purchases." By contrast, Japan's policies on nuclear

proliferation posed a real risk that supplies from Iran

would become more difficult to acquire.



5. Okamoto dismissed claims that India posed an economic

threat, noting that India has safety valves and has not

embraced mercantilist policies. "This is not the case with

China," he noted. "China is," he said, "seeking ... a

suspension of the laws of scarcity." Moreover, "the

(Chinese) system is not diffusing the benefits" of economic

growth to the interior "and is not creating an environment

for sustainable investment led growth."



6. "But the ultimate threat from China," said Okamoto, "is

its military growth." He pointed to Japan's deteriorating

relations with all of its continental neighbors (PRC, ROK,

DPRK, and Russia) and said that Japan must prevent a rift

between continental and maritime Asia. China's increasingly

aggressive diplomatic posture, though, made this task

difficult. Its active lobbying against Japan's UNSC seat

bid, as well as last year's anti-Japanese riots, had been a

wake up call in Japan.



Arnall