NETHERLANDS/GAERC: DUTCH POSITIONS AHEAD OF THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002431 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2011 TAGS: PREL KPAL MARR PGOV PHUM EUN UN BK CG CU IR IS, LE, SR, SU, UZ, YI, NL SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/GAERC: DUTCH POSITIONS AHEAD OF THE NOVEMBER GAERC REF: A. STATE 183545 ¶B. EUR/ERA NOV 9 E-MAIL (OTALLAH) ¶C. THE HAGUE 2430 ¶D. THE HAGUE 2426 ¶E. BRUSSELS 3672 Classified By: Political Officer Ted Burkhalter; reasons 1.4 (b, d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Dutch expect the GAERC to focus largely on Turkey and enlargement, with limited discussion on a range of other issues. They do not expect the Turks to fulfill their Ankara protocol commitments, but seem unlikely to press for wholesale suspension of negotiations. The Dutch expect Sudan to be a subject of conversation among Ministers of Defense, and believe that the route forward now is to beef up AMIS with UN elements and to find alternate sources of financing. On the Balkans, the Middle East, and Russia, the Dutch offered few surprises. The GONL supports ESDP for Afghanistan. End summary. ¶2. (C) Poloff delivered ref A demarche November 7 to Deputy European Political Correspondent Jeroen Boender. On November 9, Boender and Head of the EU Enlargement Division Alle Dorhout briefed foreign diplomats on Dutch views going into the GAERC. Poloff dropped the revised Cuba points (ref B) with Boender at that time. Turkish accession will muddle on, maybe -------------- ¶3. (C) The GONL is happy with the European Commission's report on enlargement and thinks it contains all the elements necessary to spur a productive debate on enlargement. The Dutch believe the Council should endorse the report in December. Dorhout noted positively ongoing efforts by the Turkish parliament to address political reform. On implementation of the Ankara protocol, however, he said that the Turks have a mere few weeks to meet their obligations. Failing full implementation of the protocol, a suspension of negotiations on a number of chapters of the aquis would be unavoidable. He would not say how many, but indicated he would advise for more than the minimum three suggested by some member states. In the meantime, said Dorhout, the GONL would continue to fully support Finnish Presidency efforts to reach a solution. ¶4. (C) Dorhout underlined the role the upcoming November 22 Dutch national elections play in this debate. While the GONL is in favor of Turkish accession and would like to find a 
solution, much of the public opposes accession. Echoing Foreign Minister Bot, he distanced the government from the remarks of Mark Rutte, leader of the Liberal Party (VVD),a junior partner in the governing coalition. Following the release of the Commission's report, Rutte called for a two year deadline for full Turkish compliance. Darfur: Beefing up AMIS is the only option -------------- ¶5. (C) Boender said that the GONL now believes that the only practical way forward in Darfur is to beef up AMIS with UN elements - "turn it into a UN force, without calling it that," he explained. Dutch Development Minister van Ardenne, who works closely with FM Bot and takes the lead on Sudan, travelled to Khartoum last week. She came away frustrated, particularly by Sudanese intransigence on UN Special Representative Jan Pronk, himself a former Dutch Development Minister. The Dutch understand that financing a strengthened AMIS will be difficult, and they intend to lobby other EU member states to contribute heavily. They are hoping for strong UK support in the lobbying effort. Boender pointed out that the Dutch and Brits have taken the lead, financially, within the EU, on Darfur. (The Netherlands has contributed well over $400 million US.) Dutch support ESDP mission for Afghanistan -------------- ¶6. (C) Boender expected FM Bot to call for a larger EU presence in Afghanistan, but he did not expect much discussion on this. The Dutch strongly support a European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) mission to Afghanistan, along the lines described in ref E, and hope it can be on the ground in early 2007. The EU, Boender added, has particular expertise in civil-military affairs and law enforcement. Balkans: Follow Ahtisaari's lead on Kosovo -------------- ¶7. (C) On Kosovo, the Dutch feel that EU unity is critical, and Bot may call for this at the GAERC. The GONL agrees with THE HAGUE 00002431 002 OF 002 us that Ahtisaari should provide the tactical lead on timing. They are not, however, willing right now to set time limits. On Serbia, they "feel that no compromise is possible on conditionalities." Boender acknowledged, however, that some member states would like more flexibility and that The Netherlands may not get its way entirely. Middle East - It's been a bad week -------------- ¶8. (C) Boender reiterated Dutch demands that Palestinians meet the Quartet's conditions. He also voiced support for the Siniora government in Lebanon, saying that it was under pressure and that Siniora's continuing in office was important. On Solana's visit to the region, he was non-committal, saying only that Dutch hopes that the Palestininas might come around have been dashed badly this past week. Other business -------------- ¶9. (C) On Iran, the DRC, and Russia, there were no surprises. The UN remains the primary forum for Iran. The GONL has watched recent developments - missile tests, reports of a second cascade and the "poor progress" in New York and is "not in an optimistic mood." On the DRC, they share our assessment and hope that, if all goes well, the EU election monitoring force can be home by Christmas. On Russia, Boender repeated the Dutch position that Russia and the EU are interdependent but that the EU can still confront Russia on their "international legal obligations". Cuba was not mentioned. Uzbekistan was discussed privately and reported in reftels C and D. SOLBERG