NETHERLANDS/NATO: MANAGING EXPECTATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 002371

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UBI, EUR/RPM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2016
TAGS: MARR NATO PGOV PREL NL
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/NATO: MANAGING EXPECTATIONS
APPROACHING RIGA SUMMIT

REF: STATE 180222

Classified By: CDA Sarah Solberg, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: MFA NATO Division Deputy Head Eric Strating
described a "pessimistic" GONL already trying to temper
expectations leading up to the Riga Summit. That said, he
expected PM Balkenende at the summit heads of state dinnerto
challenge allies as well as other international organizations
to embrace the "new NATO" by doing more, especially in
Afghanistan. He said the Dutch support the latest version of
the global partnership paper, but anticipated a real fight
with France -- possibly resulting in a scaled-down version of
the concept. He said the GONL was surprised by President
Bush's recent statement on inviting Croatia to join the
alliance in 2008, but added they would not raise objections.
Strating discussed these issues with polmiloff on November 2.
End summary.

Summit Expectations
--------------


2. (C) Strating described a "pessimistic" GONL initiating
"damage control" with the Dutch Parliament by trying to
manage expectations, i.e., approval of small initiatives at
the 2006 summit, which could be enhanced in 2008, and then
showcased at a 60th NATO anniversary in 2009. He expressed
additional concerns regarding the heads of state dinner,
especially if French President Chirac decides to deliver
obstructionist remarks. He said PM Balkenende will emphasize
Afghanistan as a case study of the new NATO in action while
calling on the EU and UN to do more in Afghanistan. He also
said Balkenende will likely refer to goals approved in the
Comprehensive Political Guidance (CPG) -- such as working
closer with the EU, UN, and NGOs, and humanitarian aid -- and
challenge allies to honor these commitments.

Global Partnership
--------------


3. (C) Strating said the GONL supports NATO SYG de Hoop
Scheffer's latest draft of the summit partnership paper.
Strating noted the paper does not explicitly mention "global"
once, but yet still accurately describes a NATO reaching out
and enhancing ties with global partners. He noted recent
objections raised by Berlin, and said the Dutch had tried
unsuccessfully to understand the German reservations
regarding an "open tool box" for all. He suspected that
these objections could be answered, but the real fight with
France over the concept was yet to come, and could lead to a
scaled-back version of the proposal.

Enlargement/PfP
--------------


4. (C) Strating acknowledged the GONL was surprised by
President Bush's recent statement on extending an invitation
to Croatia at the 2008 summit to join the alliance. Strating
said the Dutch agree Croatia is almost ready for NATO
membership, but must still make the case to the Croatian
public. Strating added that the Dutch were initially
supportive of early Croatian membership, possibly even before
the 2008 summit. However, the GONL has backtracked to the
more general "performance-based" approach prevalent within
the alliance, he said. At any rate, Strating said the Dutch
will not take a high profile on Croatia, and will not block
consensus should one emerge.


5. (C) Strating questioned whether the President's statement
might affect the enlargement portion of the Riga Summit
Communique, especially regarding Georgia and Ukraine. He
could support language similar to the "Madrid formula"
involving the round of enlargement with Poland, Hungary, and
the Czech Republic, i.e., "one or more" candidates might be
invited in 2008. Strating also cited draft language from
PDAS Volker's recent trip to Berlin that the alliance has the
"intention to take decisions in 2008 based on performance" --
an even better option, in Strating's view.


6. (C) On Ukraine, Strating concurred with reftel points that
it was important to continue to encourage Ukrainian
membership aspirations, especially as a catalyst to further
domestic reform. The Dutch plan a similar approach with

Georgia, he said, and will continue to work with Tbilisi on
defense reform. He noted, however, that FM Bot was still not
convinced Georgia was ready for Intensified Dialogue (ID),
but had succumbed to pressure by the Dutch parliament.
"Georgia still views NATO as a Cold War instrument to
confront Russia," Strating said. "But that's not today's
NATO."


7. (C) On Partnership for Peace (PfP),Strating said the GONL
could support PfP admission for Bosnia and Montenegro, but
Serbia would be a "bridge too far."

Training
--------------


8. (C) Strating said the Dutch feel very strongly that any
NATO training initiative not be explicitly limited to one
region or group, such as Mediterranean Dialogue/International
Cooperation Initiative members. The Dutch remain committed
to training in Africa, he said, and suggested language at
Riga leave open the possibility of "eventual" training for
other regions.
SOLBERG