NETHERLANDS/NATO: MANAGING EXPECTATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 002371 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/UBI, EUR/RPM E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2016 TAGS: MARR NATO PGOV PREL NL SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/NATO: MANAGING EXPECTATIONS APPROACHING RIGA SUMMIT REF: STATE 180222 Classified By: CDA Sarah Solberg, reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: MFA NATO Division Deputy Head Eric Strating described a "pessimistic" GONL already trying to temper expectations leading up to the Riga Summit. That said, he expected PM Balkenende at the summit heads of state dinnerto challenge allies as well as other international organizations to embrace the "new NATO" by doing more, especially in Afghanistan. He said the Dutch support the latest version of the global partnership paper, but anticipated a real fight with France -- possibly resulting in a scaled-down version of the concept. He said the GONL was surprised by President Bush's recent statement on inviting Croatia to join the alliance in 2008, but added they would not raise objections. Strating discussed these issues with polmiloff on November 2. End summary. Summit Expectations -------------- ¶2. (C) Strating described a "pessimistic" GONL initiating "damage control" with the Dutch Parliament by trying to manage expectations, i.e., approval of small initiatives at the 2006 summit, which could be enhanced in 2008, and then showcased at a 60th NATO anniversary in 2009. He expressed additional concerns regarding the heads of state dinner, especially if French President Chirac decides to deliver obstructionist remarks. He said PM Balkenende will emphasize Afghanistan as a case study of the new NATO in action while calling on the EU and UN to do more in Afghanistan. He also said Balkenende will likely refer to goals approved in the Comprehensive Political Guidance (CPG) -- such as working closer with the EU, UN, and NGOs, and humanitarian aid -- and challenge allies to honor these commitments. Global Partnership -------------- ¶3. (C) Strating said the GONL supports NATO SYG de Hoop Scheffer's latest draft of the summit partnership paper. Strating noted the paper does not explicitly mention "global" once, but yet still accurately describes a NATO reaching out and enhancing ties with global partners. He noted recent objections raised by Berlin, and said the Dutch had tried unsuccessfully to understand the German reservations regarding an "open tool box" for all. He suspected that these objections could be answered, but the real fight with France over the concept was yet to come, and could lead to a scaled-back version of the proposal. Enlargement/PfP -------------- ¶4. (C) Strating acknowledged the GONL was surprised by President Bush's recent statement on extending an invitation to Croatia at the 2008 summit to join the alliance. Strating said the Dutch agree Croatia is almost ready for NATO membership, but must still make the case to the Croatian public. Strating added that the Dutch were initially supportive of early Croatian membership, possibly even before the 2008 summit. However, the GONL has backtracked to the more general "performance-based" approach prevalent within the alliance, he said. At any rate, Strating said the Dutch will not take a high profile on Croatia, and will not block consensus should one emerge. ¶5. (C) Strating questioned whether the President's statement might affect the enlargement portion of the Riga Summit Communique, especially regarding Georgia and Ukraine. He could support language similar to the "Madrid formula" involving the round of enlargement with Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, i.e., "one or more" candidates might be invited in 2008. Strating also cited draft language from PDAS Volker's recent trip to Berlin that the alliance has the "intention to take decisions in 2008 based on performance" -- an even better option, in Strating's view. ¶6. (C) On Ukraine, Strating concurred with reftel points that it was important to continue to encourage Ukrainian membership aspirations, especially as a catalyst to further domestic reform. The Dutch plan a similar approach with Georgia, he said, and will continue to work with Tbilisi on defense reform. He noted, however, that FM Bot was still not convinced Georgia was ready for Intensified Dialogue (ID), but had succumbed to pressure by the Dutch parliament. "Georgia still views NATO as a Cold War instrument to confront Russia," Strating said. "But that's not today's NATO." ¶7. (C) On Partnership for Peace (PfP),Strating said the GONL could support PfP admission for Bosnia and Montenegro, but Serbia would be a "bridge too far." Training -------------- ¶8. (C) Strating said the Dutch feel very strongly that any NATO training initiative not be explicitly limited to one region or group, such as Mediterranean Dialogue/International Cooperation Initiative members. The Dutch remain committed to training in Africa, he said, and suggested language at Riga leave open the possibility of "eventual" training for other regions. SOLBERG