NETHERLANDS/UNSC/VENEZUELA/GUATEMALA: DUTCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 001766 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/FO (CSHAPIRO),EUR/PGI (JELDRIDGE),IO/UNP (BHARRIS) E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2016 TAGS: PREL UN UNSC GT VE NL SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/UNSC/VENEZUELA/GUATEMALA: DUTCH ANTICIPATE VENEZUELAN WIN REF: A. A) STATE 111590 ¶B. B) THE HAGUE 1681 Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROLAND ARNALL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B/D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Dutch still have not decided whether to vote for Guatemala or Venezuela for the open GRULAC seat on the UN Security Council. According to Dutch Foreign Minister Bot, however, momentum is building for Venezuela's candidacy, and Guatemala may be planning to withdraw. Post believes a high-level call to Bot would be helpful in clarifying the situation. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) During a meeting with Foreign Minister Bot on August 10 (other subjects reported septel),Ambassador Arnall urged the Dutch to support Guatemala's Security Council bid over that of Venezuela. The Ambassador noted that recent Security Council debates regarding Lebanon and Iran made clear the importance of having responsible, serious actors on the Council. In this context, Guatemala was clearly the better choice. Recalling earlier working level discussions (ref b), the Ambassador noted U.S. concerns that the Dutch might be reconsidering its earlier support for Guatemala. ¶3. (C) In response, Bot argued that the Dutch had not yet made a decision. He acknowledged that he had been pressed during his recent visit to Caracas to support the Venezuelan candidacy, but had refrained from committing one way or the other. Bot noted, however, that the Venezuelan candidacy appeared to be gaining momentum -- including in Latin America -- while Guatemala's was stalled. Bot added that he had recently heard Guatemala might withdraw from the race in the face of growing support for Venezuela which, if true, would make the issue moot. In any case, Bot indicated he would wait to see how the situation developed before making a final decision. Comment: High-level call from Washington needed -------------- -- ¶4. (C) Post has no knowledge of Guatemala's supposed plans to withdraw, and we understand neither does the Department. To the contrary, Guatemalan VP Stein has been in Washington this week to finalize strategy prior to the UNGA. ¶5. (C) Comment (continued): The Dutch carry weight within the EU on Latin American issues, and a Dutch decision to vote for Venezuela could negatively influence the decisions of other EU members. In light of this, post believes a call Secretary Rice or Undersecretary Burns to Bot would be helpful in clarifying the importance of the vote and correcting any misperceptions about the current state of play. ARNALL