(C/NF) NETHERLANDS/UNSC/VENEZUELA/GUATEMALA: DUTCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001681 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/FO (CSHAPIRO),EUR/PGI (JELDRIDGE),IO/UNP (BHARRIS) E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2016 TAGS: PREL UN UNSC GT VE NL SUBJECT: (C/NF) NETHERLANDS/UNSC/VENEZUELA/GUATEMALA: DUTCH WEIGHING UNSC VOTE REF: A. A) STATE 111590 ¶B. B) THE HAGUE 642 ¶C. C) CARACAS 2238 Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew J. Schofer; reasons 1.4 (b) a nd (d). ¶1. (C/NF) Summary: Foreign Minister Bot has ordered the MFA to review its earlier decision to support Guatemala over Venezuela for the GRULAC candidacy for a UNSC seat. A senior MFA official told us privately that the Dutch will probably "do the wise thing" and vote for Guatemala, but would not rule out the possibility of a pro-Venezuela vote. He stressed that the Dutch would not be in a position to lobby on Guatemala's behalf in any case. In the absence of an EU consensus, concerns about Guatemala's Human Rights record and sensitive Dutch-Venezuelan relations appear to be influencing the Foreign Minister's thinking more than usual. A strong push within the EU to support Guatemala over Venezuela could help shift the Dutch back to a more favorable position. We will continue to press the issue here. End summary. Background: Prior Dutch assurances of support for Guatemala -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) We began approaching the Dutch on this in early February. On March 15, then-Director of the MFA's Western Hemisphere Department, Marion Kappeyne van de Coppello, told WHA PDAS Charles Shapiro that, while the GONL was not disposed to lobby for Guatemala, the decision to vote for Guatemala had been made. Others in MFA confirmed this. ¶3. (C/NF) On July 24, MFA Kingdom Affairs Advisor Karel de Vey Mestdagh -- who works closely on Venezuela policy -- confirmed in response to ref A request that the GONL would not lobby on behalf of Guatemala in Asia and Africa because of the "sensitive" nature of Dutch-Venezuelan relations. At the same meeting, Central America Division Head Laetitia van Asch-Pieters noted that Guatemala's human rights and governance records remained troublesome and that a vote for Guatemala was by no means "obvious." Confirmation of a review: Decision still pending -------------- --- ¶4. (C/NF) In a follow up meeting with Charge on July 31, Dutch MFA Acting Director General for Political Affairs (P equivalent) Wim Geerts reiterated that the Netherlands would not lobby on behalf of either Guatemala or Venezuela. He confirmed that Bot had ordered a review of the Dutch voting position after returning from a recent trip to Venezuela. Geert stressed that a policy recommendation had been sent to Bot, but that Bot would make the final decision personally. ¶5. (C/NF) Pressed, Geerts said he believed Bot would "do the wise thing," clearly indicating he believed this meant voting for Guatemala. He stressed, however, that Bot clearly wanted to weigh the pros and cons of a vote in light of the sensitive nature of Dutch-Venezuelan relations. Whatever the Foreign Minister decided, according to Geerts, the Dutch would not broadcast their decision in a way that could cause offense. Geerts indicated that he believed other European countries were making similar, individual calculations and did not expect a European consensus to emerge. Charge and PolCouns stressed the importance we attach to this issue and urged a pro-Guatemala vote. Comment: -------------- ¶6. (C/NF) Comment: Despite earlier indications to the contrary, Geerts' comments make clear that there is no European consensus on supporting Guatemala. In the case of the Netherlands, the lack of such a consensus complicates our efforts to secure Dutch support. We will continue to press the issue here and would appreciate periodic updates on the THE HAGUE 00001681 002 OF 002 evolving vote count. BLAKEMAN