NETHERLANDS/EU: DUTCH REMAIN SKEPTICAL ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001185 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2016 TAGS: PREL EU NL SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/EU: DUTCH REMAIN SKEPTICAL ON CONSTITUTION AND ENLARGEMENT REF: THE HAGUE 976 Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew Schofer; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Following the May 2005 "no" vote on the EU Constitution, the Dutch government instituted a one-year period of reflection. The GONL last week presented to Parliament the results of this reflection and made a recommendation for the next year: continue to reflect. The GONL has failed to explain the benefits of EU enlargement and integration to the public. Dutch policy makers are likely in the coming election year to become decreasingly receptive to moving forward on enlargement and other potentially contentious issues. End summary. EU CONSTITUTION: "NO" STILL MEANS "NO" -------------- ¶2. (U) Nearly a year after Dutch voters rejected the EU Constitution, the Dutch government has completed an internet survey of popular attitudes and delivered a cabinet analysis to Parliament. The cabinet also commissioned a major study by a government affiliated think tank, the Scientific Council for Governance (WRR). On May 19, Foreign Minister Ben Bot and State Secretary Atzo Nicolai recommended to Parliament that the one-year reflection period - to conclude this month - be extended for another year. They made clear that the current government would not renew debate on the Constitution. Bot and Nicolai repeated GONL policy (reftel) that the EU should focus on economic growth, employment, security and energy. They urged greater EU decision making transparency and a continued EU-wide debate on enlargement. ¶3. (C) Professor Wim van de Donk, Chairman of the GONL-affiliated think tank WRR May 19 with Poloff and EUR/ERA Director Peter Chase. WRR is drafting a report, at the Cabinet,s request, that analyzes in more detail what went wrong in the referendum and how best to proceed. WRR,s research, according to van de Donk, shows that Dutch voters rejected the EU Constitution for three reasons. First, many Dutch voters, particularly the poor, mistakenly believed that the EU presents no economic benefit for The Netherlands. They saw that the Dutch were (and are) net contributors and failed to understand the benefits of the open market. 4 (C) Second, the Dutch were concerned about a loss of sovereignty. Popular perception was/is of a Brussels elite making decisions over Dutch heads. The Dutch public was/is also acutely aware that it has gone from being a founding member - one of six - to just one small member state among twenty-five. Again, the public, according to van de Donk, failed to understand that the EU is not a zero-sum game. ¶5. (C) Finally, according to the WRR research, Prime Minister Balkenede,s decision not to campaign strongly for the Constitution doomed the vote. Van de Donk thought this ironic. Balkenende, he said, avoided a forceful campaign out of fear of a protest vote against his government. WRR,s research, however, indicates that a strong government campaign might have resulted in a much higher yes tally. On immigration - another touchy issue both then and now - Van de Donk felt that the GONL could have made a convincing case for the benefits of immigration in an era of globalization. He believes that the current Dutch debate has gone in the wrong direction and that the political elite have abdicated their responsibilities to educate the public. ¶6. (C) Van de Donk did not contain his criticism to Balkenende. He feels that the entire Dutch political class failed to do its job. His colleague, Monika Sie Dhian Ho, added that the Dutch elite are themselves uncertain about the future of the EU. Van de Donk agreed, noting that Dutch history has periods in which the nation has been open to the world, but that it likewise has periods in which it has been closed. Offering the inter-war years (1918-1939) as an example, he suggested that The Netherlands might now be retreating to a more closed posture. MFA: GOING SLOW ON ENLARGEMENT TOO -------------- ¶7. (C) Poloff spoke May 24 with Stefan van Wersch, MFA Head of External Policy, European Integration Department. Van Wersch explained that, while the GONL remains committed to the EU vision, the Constitution is too sensitive an issue at the moment. A renewed debate would not yield a result that the GONL feels would be in The Netherlands, interests. Van Wersch emphasized that The Netherlands will continue to take an active and forceful role on EU external policy. "Including, whether you like it or not, on WTO," he lightly added. THE HAGUE 00001185 002 OF 002 ¶8. (C) On GONL support for January 2007 Romanian and Bulgarian accession, Van Wersch gave a qualified yes. He repeated the MFA,s view (reftel) that a delay in accession would have negative consequences in Bulgaria. He believes that, with a positive decision in October, formalities can still be completed by January 2007. Surprisingly, and in contradiction with previous statements he and other officials have made, van Wersch said that Foreign Minister Bot had been the first EU official to float the idea of delaying a decision on Bulgarian accession. He explained that Bot,s rationale was that a decision in June would have taken the pressure off Bulgaria to complete its reforms. COMMENT: -------------- ¶9. (C) Dutch parliamentary elections are scheduled for May 2007 but could come early; the formation of a new coalition government after elections could, if history is any guide, then take anywhere from three months to a year. This effectively means that there will be no serious discussion of the EU Constitution within the next 1 - 2 years. The current CDA-led government is also clearly failing to explain the benefits of enlargement and integration to the public -- probably a reflection of its own ambivalence and reluctance to engage in contentious debates in an election year. As the election campaign heats up, Dutch policies are likely to be decreasingly receptive to movement on enlargement and integration issues. ARNALL