RELIGIOUS ZIONIST LEADER SPECULATES RIGHT-WING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000894

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON KPAL KWBG EG IS JA GOI INTERNAL ELECTIONS ISRAEL RELATIONS
SUBJECT: RELIGIOUS ZIONIST LEADER SPECULATES RIGHT-WING
BLOC COULD FORM NEW GOVERNMENT

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: National Union (NU) leader MK Benny Elon
asserted to the Ambassador March 1 that the right-of-center
parties will gain enough seats in the March 28 elections that
they could (in the unlikely event they were asked to do so)
form a government. He called Kadima an artificial political
grouping, despite its current sustained lead in all polls,
and claimed that most Israelis are still more right, than
left, of center. Elon tied Hamas to a larger Islamic
regional movement that he saw as including al Qaeda, and
advocated that Israel work with Jordan and Egypt to achieve a
regional solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, rather
than work with the Palestinian Authority. Elon stressed his
strong appreciation for U.S. support for Israel, and
criticized what he termed Israel's financial dependence on
the U.S., advocating instead that the money go to Jordan and
Israel use the United States' and Israel's shared religious
values to cement the relationship. End summary.

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"Easy Money" Hurts Israel
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2. (C) MK and Rabbi Binyamin (Benny) Elon, head of the
recently merged National Union (NU)-National Religious Party
(NRP) Knesset list, began his courtesy call on the Ambassador
March 1 by expressing his appreciation for the strong
U.S.-Israel relationship. Elon remarked, "It is a gift from
God that there is one real 'empire' in the world and it is
the United States." Elon underlined the need for Israel to
"build the right bridge" with the U.S., rather than continue
what he characterized as Israel's financial dependence on the
U.S. Elon said he is the only MK that has shown "humility"
about Israel receiving U.S. assistance. "We're not only
'schnorrers' (Yiddish for 'free-loaders, spongers')," Elon
said, "but we're schnorrers with chutzpah." Elon worried
that Israel's continued dependence on U.S. assistance could
create a negative backlash in the U.S. against Israel, as
well as against American Jews.


3. (C) Referring to the some five million U.S. Jews and what
he assessed to be 60 million U.S. evangelical Christians,
Elon advocated that Israel concentrate on building its
relationship with the U.S. based on shared Judeo-Christian
values. (Note: Elon served as tourism minister from
2001-2004, during which time he developed strong ties with
the U.S. evangelical Christian community, stressing what he
referred to as the Jewish people's biblical claim to the
"greater Land of Israel," including the West Bank and Gaza.
Prime Minister Sharon fired Elon in June 2004 for opposing
the disengagement plan. End note.) Elon said that out of
what he said is Israel's USD 60 billion budget -- without
indicating for which fiscal year -- USD three billion came
from the U.S. He underscored that cutting this amount "would
not be the end of the world" for Israel. "It's easy money,"
Elon remarked, "and easy money spoils." Later in the
conversation he advocated channeling this money into
assistance for Jordan (see below).

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Right-Wing Bloc to Overtake Kadima?
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4. (C) In response to the Ambassador's query about election
prospects for the NU-NRP, Elon claimed that polls indicate
that his list would receive 11-12 Knesset seats if elections
were held today, an increase, he claimed, of four seats since
the two parties merged at the beginning of February. He
assessed that the right-of-center parties, including Avigdor
Lieberman's Russian-immigrant-oriented Yisrael Beiteinu
party, will continue to grow. "I don't believe (Alternate PM
Ehud) Olmert will be (the next) prime minister," Elon
asserted, assessing that a right-of-center bloc composed of
NU-NRP, Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Shas could form the next
government. (Note: Elon did not explain how it would
transpire that Israel's President Katsav would not, as is
customary, ask the party that receives the highest number of
seats, most likely Kadima, to form the new government. End
note.) Elon assessed that most Israelis are on the right,
rather than left-of-center, and that this tendency is not
easy to change. "Sharon created something artificial," Elon
asserted, and added, "but maybe I'm wrong... we'll see."


5. (C) According to Elon, a right-of-center bloc could form
the next coalition if, as he hopes, Likud's support grows to
20 seats, Shas wins at least 10 seats, NU-NRP wins 15 seats,
and Yisrael Beiteinu wins 10. When the Ambassador noted that
this would still not reach the 61-seat majority, Elon claimed
that, according to a recent poll, a gap of only nine seats
currently exists for a right-of-center bloc to reach a
Knesset majority. Elon acknowledged that the right-of-center
parties will "have to work" to achieve success, and that they
plan to "bypass the media" and run a door-to-door campaign.
Elon assessed that Yisrael Beiteinu will focus on attracting
the Russian-immigrant population, because that party appeals
to that sector's secular agenda. "We're not trying to appeal
to them," Elon said. He also noted that the NU-NRP merger
had been difficult to achieve. Unlike the NU, the NRP has a
problem with being referred to as a right-wing party, while,
unlike the NRP, the NU tries to appeal to secular as well as
religious voters.

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Israel Should Focus on Alliance with Jordan, Egypt
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6. (C) Turning to the Hamas election victory, Elon
characterized Hamas's rise to power as "inevitable," and said
it is superficial to blame Olmert for Hamas's success. He
said that Hamas's victory represents part of a regional trend
dominated by al Qaeda, which, he said, seeks to "break the
idol" that America represents, and to show the Muslim world
that America is weak and "is not such a story." He
characterized Hamas as "very intellectual," as not corrupt,
and as a movement that "really takes care of its people." In
contrast, Elon referred to the PLO as "a bunch of gangsters."
He stressed, however, that Hamas, as an extension of al
Qaeda, represents a greater danger.


7. (C) Elon, who provided the Ambassador with a copy of his
book, "God's Covenant with Israel," advocated that Israel
focus on strengthening its relationships with Egypt and
Jordan -- "the real partner" -- and that Israel support the
moderate Arab influence in the region, including Palestinian
Christians. He expressed disagreement with former Minister
Natan Sharansky's emphasis on the need to support democratic
governments, exclaiming, "So, Jordan and Egypt are not the
best democracies, so what." He referred to his plan, "The
Right Road to Peace," outlined in his book, in which he
advocates recognition of Jordan as the Palestinian state and
calls for Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank and Gaza.
Elon asserted that creating "another entity" between Israel
and Jordan would create a problem, and would "destroy
Jordan." Elon said that if he were prime minister, he would
give all U.S. assistance for Israel to Jordan instead, in
order to "upgrade" Jordan's economy and support it as a
moderate partner.


8. (C) Elon expressed the hope that Hamas's victory "will
open people's eyes not to see the PA as a partner" as well as
not to support additional unilateral moves. He criticized
unilateral withdrawals and the separation barrier as turning
a blind eye to the problem. The Ambassador agreed that
unilateralism is not likely to provide a long-term solution
to the conflict. Elon said that Sharon had speculated to him
-- Elon did not indicate when -- that Israel would not have a
partner and would have to implement unilateral moves.
"(Sharon) believed he would set the borders," Elon said.
"Sharon couldn't trust (Netanyahu) or Olmert" to do this,
Elon said. "Only (Sharon) could do it."

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Bio Note
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9. (C) Elon was born in Jerusalem in 1954 and is a ninth
generation Jerusalemite who, for the past 20 years, has lived
in the West Bank settlement of Beit El. Elon is married and
has six children and four grandchildren. He was recently
diagnosed with cancer of the vocal chords and had surgery to
remove a tumor in January 2006. Elon told the Ambassador
that he is currently undergoing radiation treatment and that
his doctor expects Elon will recover fully. Elon, whose
voice sounded raspy, remarked that he had never smoked.
Elon's English is very good and he indicated that he speaks
some Arabic as well as Russian.


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