EGYPTIAN AMBASSADOR ON GAZA BORDER AND ISRAELI

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 000055

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PTER KPAL IS EG GOI EXTERNAL GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: EGYPTIAN AMBASSADOR ON GAZA BORDER AND ISRAELI
POLITICS

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones; Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: In a January 5 meeting with Ambassador Jones,
Egyptian Ambassador to Israel Mohamed Asem Ibrahim stressed
that Mubarak will sincerely miss Sharon, whom he views as a
real partner. Ibrahim expressed concern about the
instability of the Israeli party system, suggesting that both
Likud and Labor will gain strength at the expense of Kadima.
Ibrahim also said that the breach of the Gaza-Egypt border by
Palestinian militants on January 4 showed that the PA must
take action to avoid further loss of public support in Egypt,
to restore order in Gaza, and to avoid closures of Rafah.
End summary.

--------------
Post-Sharon Era
--------------


2. (C) Ibrahim said that the international community "needs
to prepare ourselves" for the post-Sharon era. He stressed
repeatedly that President Mubarak sees Sharon as a real
partner and will mourn the loss. Ibrahim noted that Mubarak
had called him twice on the night of Likud's vote on
primaries in September to inquire about Sharon's chances, had
on several occasions considered not receiving calls or visits
from Sharon's political opponents, and had been the first
world leader to call following Sharon's mild stroke in
December. Ibrahim said he would recommend that Mubarak
attend the funeral; if the President could not come, he would
recommend that the Prime Minister and at least two other
ministers represent Egypt.


3. (C) Stressing Sharon's historical importance, Ibrahim
noted that his absence throws the entire Israeli political
picture into confusion. He called the end of Sharon's tenure
a "test for Israeli society," but added that Israeli
democracy had survived even tougher storms. He said that
Egypt is concerned about the lack of any real party
structures in Israel, "even by Israeli standards." In
Ibrahim's analysis, both Netanyahu (Likud) and Peretz (Labor)
will gain strength as they woo back erstwhile colleagues who
had deserted to join Sharon's Kadima party. Ibrahim urged
the international community to avoid taking sides in the
upcoming election.

--------------
PA must act after Gaza-Egypt Border Attack
--------------


4. (C) According to Ibrahim, Egyptian officials had called
President Abbas out of a lunch with the Prime Minister of
Jordan to demand action following the breach of the
Egyptian-Gaza border by Palestinian militants. Ibrahim said
the incident on January 4 -- which left three Egyptian Border
Guards dead, over 20 wounded, and resulted in the arrest of
more than 150 Palestinians by Egyptian forces -- would
negatively impact upon Egyptian public support for the
Palestinians. He lamented the lack of order in Gaza and what
he called the "disastrous" situation in the PA. Amb. Jones
replied that the attack once again illustrates the importance
of maintaining border security. Ibrahim agreed, saying that
if he was in charge he would quickly repatriate the arrested
Palestinians and close the Rafah crossing -- or at least
limit the numbers and hours of crossings -- as a signal to
the PA that they must take action. Ibrahim also expressed
hope that the Egyptian casualties would lead Israeli
officials to take a more cooperative approach to negotiations
on arms for the Border Guards.

********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv

You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
JONES