FM LIVNI URGES CAUTION ON SYRIA IN MEETING WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 005007 SIPDIS CODEL SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR H AND NEA E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/26/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR IS KPAL IR SY LE SUBJECT: FM LIVNI URGES CAUTION ON SYRIA IN MEETING WITH CODEL SPECTER Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones. Reason 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA) discussed Syria, Iran and efforts to revive the Israeli-Palestinian Roadmap with FM Tzipi Livni on December 27. Describing his recent trip to Damascus, Senator Specter said Syrian President Bashar al-Asad had expressed an interest in negotiating with Israel without preconditions. Livni doubted Asad,s sincerity, saying that if he truly wanted peace with Israel, he would stop supporting Hizballah and Palestinian terrorist groups. She thought it likely that he was interested in talks simply to deflect attention from Syria,s behavior in Lebanon and to alleviate international pressure stemming from the Hariri investigation. Livni said it was important to make progress on the Palestinian track before contemplating new negotiations with Syria, because the Palestinians would feel threatened if Israel appeared to prefer a Syrian track, and because Israel,s relations with Jordan and Syria depended to some extent on progress with the Palestinians. Livni agreed with Senator Specter that we must continue marginalizing Hamas while seeking to strengthen Abu Mazen. Senator Specter and Livni agreed that the U.S. and Israel should continue close coordination on Syria to avoid any surprises. On Iran, Livni said she feared a regional &domino effect8 of proliferation if Iran achieved a nuclear weapon. She welcomed the new sanctions but said stronger sanctions would soon be needed. Livni did not want to discuss &the military option8 for dealing with Iran, although she did allow &there were options.8 END SUMMARY. -------------- MAINTAINING THE PRESSURE ON SYRIA -------------- ¶2. (C) Alluding to press reports of Livni,s December 26 appearance before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Senator Specter said he heard Livni might be interested in exploring a new negotiating track with Syria. Livni discounted the report, noting that her remarks had been mischaracterized by the press. Livni said it was clear that Syrian President Bashar al-Asad was signaling a desire to negotiate, but not necessarily to make peace. Asad,s first priority, she said, was to alleviate the international pressure his regime was laboring under. By signaling publicly that he was willing to negotiate, Asad hoped to paint himself as a constructive regional player, while highlighting Israel,s refusal to answer the call. Livni added that for Israel, the issue was not just about Israeli-Syrian peace, but also Syria,s support for terrorism and interference in Lebanon. Asad knows what he needs to do, she said, but is doing nothing. ¶3. (C) Noting his long experience in the region, including many meetings over the years with both Hafez and Bashar al-Asad, Senator Specter said he did not know what lay behind Asad,s public overtures. At the same time, Asad was saying that he was ready for &negotiations without preconditions.8 Livni said she thought Asad wanted negotiations with the U.S., but it was unclear whether he also wanted negotiations with Israel. Senator Specter responded that Asad and his Foreign Minister had both clearly told him that Syria was interested in talks with Israel, although afterward, FM Walid Mu'allim sought to &walk back a bit8 from the statement. Senator Specter told Livni that in any case, it was clear the Syrians wanted the Golan Heights back. ¶4. (C) Senator Specter also relayed that Asad seemed to acknowledge Syrian influence over Hamas and Hizballah by saying that Hamas &may not be wed to ideology,8 and that Damascus could influence both parties toward peace. Asad also denied providing arms to Hizballah, and said Syria was not involved in the Hariri assassination. Livni responded that Asad,s denial stemmed from his fear of the International Tribunal. Senator Specter said he told Asad the U.S. would be watching very closely to monitor Syria,s behavior regarding UNSCR 1701 implementation, terrorism and Lebanon. Livni said that while it was difficult to find a &smoking gun,8 it was clear that Syria was still supplying significant amounts of arms to Hizballah. ¶5. (C) Senator Specter said he thought it would be reasonable to test Asad,s public peace overtures by asking for action on Hamas and Hizballah. Livni responded that as a first step, even a simple, and somewhat easier, humanitarian gesture would be a positive sign. For example, he could do TEL AVIV 00005007 002 OF 003 more to help get Gilad Shalit released, or even return the remains of Eli Cohen (an Israeli agent executed by Syria in 1965). Asad &knows what he is expected to do, but does nothing,8 Livni said, adding &He talks but still plays with terrorists.8 ¶6. (C) Regarding the two Israeli soldiers abducted by Hizballah at the beginning of the summer war, Senator Specter said Asad claimed to be waiting for a mediator to help secure their release. Livni said that Asad was making excuses, since there was already a German mediator nominated by UN SYG Annan, but that nothing had been done. Livni said the GOI had received no information about the two since their abduction. &We know they were wounded,8 she said, &but have heard nothing since.8 ¶7. (C) Senator Specter asked whether Livni was &encouraged by the United States, firm stand on Syria.8 Livni responded that she was, and noted that the U.S. and Israel share the same goals on Syria. She said that for Israel, &coordination with the U.S. is critical,8 adding: &If I decide we should pursue negotiations with Syria, I would come to the U.S. first so that we could coordinate openly.8 &But it goes both ways,8 Livni said, and Israel &expects no surprises from the U.S.8 Senator Specter agreed that neither side should surprise the other by changing its policy on Syria without first consulting the other. He stressed, however, that if Israel decided negotiations with Syria were in its interests, Israel should go ahead with or without U.S. approval. Livni rejoined that Israel would still consult the U.S. first, &openly and honestly.8 She noted that in any case, &we are not in that position now.8 -------------- THE PALESTINIANS FIRST, SYRIA LATER -------------- ¶8. (C) Livni said that while Israel ultimately wanted peace with Syria, and recognized that the Golan Heights would have to be on the table, peace with the Palestinians was a higher priority. She noted that historically, whenever there was an active Israel-Syria track, the Palestinians got frustrated. The Palestinians felt ignored and sought attention by increasing the terrorist attacks, she said. Pursuing negotiations with Syria in the current environment could have a negative impact on the prospects for peace with the Palestinians. Livni added that, unlike with Syria, Israel,s relations with the Palestinians also had a direct impact on relations with Jordan and Egypt. This was another reason, she said, why Israel should pursue peace with the Palestinians before opening any new track with the Syrians. ¶9. (C) Senator Specter asked if Israel was making progress with the Palestinians. Livni responded that while it was just a beginning, &there were small signs of progress.8 The ceasefire -- &even though the Palestinians are not following it8 -- and the December 24 Olmert-Abu Mazen meeting represented good first steps. Livni acknowledged the process was hard, but &we can,t wait for miracles.8 She said the Roadmap was the only framework available, and until a new one was created, Israel would continue working to implement it. ¶10. (C) Livni agreed with Senator Specter that there could be no real solution until Hamas was no longer in charge of the Palestinians. She noted that before the Palestinian legislative elections in January, she had counseled not to allow Hamas to participate. &It,s ridiculous to let terrorists participate in elections,8 she said, &even the Europeans don,t do that with their terrorist groups.8 Livni said that while Fatah was not currently a viable alternative to Hamas -- a situation that she stressed was ¬ Israel,s fault8 -- we must continue working to strengthen Abu Mazen in order to create an alternative. -------------- NEXT STEPS ON IRAN -------------- ¶11. (C) Senator Specter asked what the next steps should be on Iran. Livni said that while she understood the value of international consensus in confronting Iran, she also believed the international community had come to the understanding that Iran could not be allowed to have nuclear weapons. Livni said she was concerned that a nuclear Iran would have a &domino effect8 in the region. Not only would TEL AVIV 00005007 003 OF 003 there be the direct threat from an Iranian bomb, but proliferation would likely result as other regional players sought their own deterrence. &If the Axis of Moderates sees the international community wavering, they will seek their own bombs,8 she said. Moreover, smaller states in the region would begin to align with Iran out of fear of its increased power and influence. ¶12. (C) Livni said that while UNSCR 1737 was important, it was not enough; the price for bringing Russia on board had made the sanctions too soft. The next step should be for the international community, either through the UNSC or, more likely, through the initiative of likeminded states, to impose &real sanctions8 on Iran. Tough sanctions represented the only hope for preventing Iran from crossing the next threshold -- which would be &critical8 and soon, she said -- in its nuclear program. Livni added that we could not afford to wait to impose such sanctions; they would need to be in place within the next 60 days to be effective. Senator Specter pointed out that Russia and China would balk, and that sanctions without Russian and Chinese support might not work. Livni agreed that bypassing Russia and China risked weakening the effectiveness of any new sanctions, &but we need to do something,8 she said. ¶13. (C) Senator Specter asked Livni about the military option. Livni answered that she did not want to discuss such questions at the moment. &There are options,8 she said, &but I don,t want to talk about it now.8 ¶14. (U) CODEL Specter did not have the opportunity to clear this message. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** JONES