OLMERT TELLS CODEL SPECTER HE IS SKEPTICAL ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 005004 SIPDIS CODEL SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2011 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER IS KPAL SY ECON IR IZ GE SUBJECT: OLMERT TELLS CODEL SPECTER HE IS SKEPTICAL ABOUT SYRIA ABSENT CREDIBLE SIGNALS Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones. Reason 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Senator Arlen Specter (PA) briefed Prime Minister Olmert on President Asad's willingness to negotiate with Israel. Specter noted that Asad had expressed a willingness to exert Syrian influence over Hamas, AND pledged to cooperate with the Hariri assassination investigation and UNSCR 1701 implementation. Olmert indicated that he expects a credible signal of seriousness from the Syrian leader before he would consider negotiations. Olmert stressed that his first priority is the Palestinian track, but he also indicated that he does wish to make peace with Syria. End Summary. -------------- SYRIA -------------- ¶2. (C) On the evening of December 27, Senator Specter and the Ambassador met with PM Olmert AND his staff to discuss Syrian President Bashar Al-Asad. Senator Specter described what Asad had said to him regarding the Golan, Lebanon and the terrorist organizations, Hamas AND Hizballah. Senator Specter reported that Asad offered to negotiate with Israel, "without preconditions." According to the Senator, Asad has something to offer vis a vis Hamas AND Hizballah. Specter noted that one of Asad's objectives is the return of the Golan Heights. Specter shared his assessment that the Syria track was worth pursuing. ¶3. (C) PM Olmert responded that other international visitors to Syria had been "very unhappy" with Asad. For example, German FM Steinmeier reportedly told Olmert that Asad had claimed that Lebanon was "part of Syria." Olmert asked rhetorically why the GOI should work with a party that cooperates with terrorist organizations, such as Hamas, the PFLP AND the PIJ. Wouldn't this violate the principle upon which the USG denies support for the Hamas-led PA? Olmert asked what Asad has to offer regarding Hizballah or Hamas? If, however, Bashar has something to offer, it may pave the way for something, Olmert conceded. Specter recounted asking Asad about Hamas, an organization whose aim is the destruction of Israel. Asad replied that "we can work on that," according to Specter, who understood this to mean that Asad has influence over the organization. ¶4. (C) PM Olmert expressed concern that if he should talk with Asad, Syria will get a stream of foreign visitors -- before he brings about any change to his policies regarding Lebanon, Hamas, Iraq or Iran. Specter said that Asad "talks a positive game," AND agreed it would be important for Olmert to be able to see concrete action regarding what he intends to do. Acknowledging that Asad has a "terrible record," Specter cited the case of Libyan leader Qadhafi as an example of how it is possible to obtain a "change of heart" in an adversary. He also highlighted the signing by Iraqi and Syrian ministers of interior of a memorandum of understanding on joint security cooperation as possible progress. In any event, Specter commented, "Asad is what you have to work with. Although it may not work, there is no other key to the door." Specter stressed the importance of the GOI making its own sovereign decision regarding the pursuit of negotiations with Syria based on what is good for Israel. Olmert concluded that "if I get the slightest, credible signal (from Asad),I will take it very seriously. I am not saying no." -------------- HARIRI ASSASSINATION INVESTIGATION -------------- ¶5. (C) Senator Specter reported that Asad had denied involvement in the Hariri assassination, AND that Asad had told him he will cooperate with the UN tribunal. Specter added that UNIIIC had recently indicated that the SARG was cooperating with its work on the investigation of the Hariri assassination. Specter clarified that while he did not take Asad's claims at face value, they should be examined. Olmert asked his Military Secretary to provide Senator Specter with intelligence that Israel had obtained "proving that (Syria) was plotting the removal of Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora so as to prevent Siniora from approving the international tribunal regarding the assassination of former PM Hariri." -------------- UNSCR 1701 IMPLEMENTATION -------------- ¶6. (C) Senator Specter indicated that Syrian FM Walid Mu'allim had assessed the current cease-fire between Israel TEL AVIV 00005004 002 OF 002 and Lebanon as "fragile" AND in need of a "political solution." He AND Asad had pledged to live up to UNSCR 1701, according to Specter, who said he warned the Syrian leadership that the USG would be watching Syria closely on the arms embargo issue. Specter added that Asad had denied shipping arms to Lebanon, colorfully insisting that only drugs, not arms, could be smuggled into Lebanon via donkeys. Olmert insisted that Asad violates the arms embargo "every day." "He's arming them on a daily basis. This is one area where I need a signal from him." In response to a question about evidence of such exchanges, Olmert claimed that Syrian arms reach Lebanon in containers shipped by train from Iran via Turkey. Olmert noted that Israel had conclusive physical evidence that Russian anti-tank missiles provided to Syria had been used in Lebanon during the summer war. -------------- Missing Israeli Soldiers -------------- ¶7. (C) Senator Specter informed Olmert that he had asked Asad about the fate of two Israeli soldiers abducted by Hizballah in July. Asad reportedly responded that (Hizballah) are prepared to give them back, but are "waiting on the mediator." Olmert said progress on such humanitarian matters would be a signal the Syrians could send to Israel: "I hope he (Asad) is not lying." -------------- Palestinian Peace Prospects -------------- ¶8. (C) PM Olmert highlighted recent actions by his government aimed at improving the quality of life of the Palestinians. He pledged to create a "new atmosphere" by improving movement AND access. He noted Israeli forbearance in upholding the Gaza cease-fire for over a month, despite repeated Qassam rocket firings. Olmert informed the Codel of his plans to travel to Egypt on January 4 AND his recent positive discussions with the King of Jordan. -------------- Iran -------------- ¶9. (C) Senator Specter asked Olmert for his assessment of Iran, sharing his own impression from meetings in India that the Indians are allies. Olmert stressed that IRAN was a "moral issue of the highest priority." Olmert said the UN measures were "very important," but he thought that other measures could be taken as well, even if they are not all taken by the UN Security Council. For example, Olmert noted that certain financial measures could have a serious impact. Senator Specter agreed that we can do more on this front. -------------- Israel's Economy -------------- ¶10. (U) PM Olmert described the economic situation as Israel's most successful year ever -- despite the Lebanon war. He cited foreign direct investment of twenty billion USD, growth figures nearing five percent AND nonexistent inflation as indicators of this success. ¶11. (U) The Codel did not have an opportunity to review this message before its departure. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** JONES