SENATOR NELSON'S MEETING WITH LIKUD LEADER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 004929

SIPDIS

CODEL
SIPDIS

DEPART FOR H AND NEA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/25/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PTER IS IR IZ SY KPAL US
SUBJECT: SENATOR NELSON'S MEETING WITH LIKUD LEADER
NETANYAHU ON THE IRANIAN THREAT


Classified By: DCM Gene A. Cretz. Reason 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Senator Bill Nelson (FL) and his senior
staff met with former prime minister (PM) and current Likud
Party leader Binyamin Netanyahu on December 12 to discuss
the Iranian nuclear threat. Netanyahu urged the U.S. to
mobilize all its diplomatic and national efforts against
Iran. "It is not just a Jewish or Israeli priority," he
stressed. He suggested that a bipartisan focus on the
Iranian threat would be an appropriate exit strategy for
Iraq. Netanyahu minimized the strategic importance of
prying Syria away from Iran, but urged the U.S. to make
every effort to recruit Arab allies against Iran. He
dismissed Hamas as an Iranian proxy. End Summary.

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SYRIA - A SIDESHOW
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2. (C) Senator Nelson explained his Syria travel plans,
and asked how one might drive a wedge between Syria and
Iran in an effort to pull Arab moderates together.
Netanyahu agreed that it was important to talk to everyone
-- every Arab state (except the Hamas leadership of the
Palestinian Authority): "Create alliances with them against
the (Iranian) danger." He told Senator Nelson that the
U.S. should "examine Syria" -- and perhaps give them some
assurances (in return for breaking away from Iran),so long
as the Golan was not put on the table. Netanyahu claimed
that Syria is now developing weaponry it did not have
before this summer's Lebanon war.


3. (C) Netanyahu told the Senator that if the U.S. could
pry Syria away from Iran, that would be good. He
reiterated that he was not, however, willing to contemplate
"giving them the Sea of Galilee" (by returning the Golan to
Syria). Netanyahu stressed that even if one could pry
Syria away, the SARG would still fall back into Iran's
orbit if Iran went nuclear. Netanyahu suggested to the
Senator that he ask President Asad to define his strategic
objective: Does he want to lose the battle in the end?

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IRANIAN THREAT: 1938 ALL OVER AGAIN
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4. (C) Netanyahu claimed that Iran was not a "local bully"
like the DPRK. Rather, its leadership aimed for Iran to
become a world power, with up to 250 bombs to be built over
the next ten years. In response to the Senator's question,
Netanyahu indicated that Iran would cross the crisis
threshold in one-to-three years once they developed
fissionable material. He argued that Iran poses an
existential threat to Israel, and he claimed that Iranian
leaders are preparing another Holocaust: "Hitler sought
global conflict, then found the weapons to make it happen.
Ahmadinejad is the reverse. If you don't stop them, he'll
use them." Netanyahu continued: "If Iran goes nuclear,
you (the U.S.) will lose control of the Middle East. The
Persian Gulf will really be the Persian Gulf... It will
start a nuclear arms race in the region, with Egypt and
Saudi Arabia likely to seek such weapons." Netanyahu told
the Senator that the Europeans understand the threat posed
by Iran, noting that "they are not all Pollyannas."


5. (C) Senator Nelson asked Netanyahu for his ideas on how
to stop the Iranians. Hard sanctions, including, for
example, refined petroleum, could theoretically choke them,
Netanyahu responded. If you secure Russian support for
such sanctions, the Chinese would get on board, he
suggested. Senator Nelson noted that the military option
for dealing with the Iranian threat would be unpleasant,
and Netanyahu acknowledged that "preemption has costs."
The Senator asked whether Iran would indeed strike Israel
knowing that Israel or the U.S. could destroy Iran.
Netanyahu responded that Israel would be hit first, and it
could not rely on deterrence in such circumstances,
particularly since the Iranian leadership is "all
bonkers." Netanyahu warned that the longer the U.S. waits
in dealing with Iran, the harder it will be to do so. He
encouraged the administration and Congress to "rise above
politics, for the world is in peril."

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IRAQ: A LOST CAUSE
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6. (C) Netanyahu asserted that Iraq was "a lost cause,

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water under the bridge." All Middle East politics will
gravitate to Iran. Senator Nelson asked whether regional
leaders understand what was happening. Netanyahu affirmed
that they did, and claimed they were terrified of the
situation. "They want the U.S. to take on Iran, or
Israel." At the end of the conversation, Netanyahu
proclaimed that Iran would be the bipartisan exit strategy
for Iraq.

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PALESTINIANS
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7. (C) On the situation in the West Bank and Gaza,
Netanyahu offered no commentary other than to say that
Hamas is eating out of Iran's hand.


8. (U) CODEL Nelson did not review this message.

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