CODEL NELSON AND ISRAEL DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 004892 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR H AND NEA E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KPAL IR SY LE IS SUBJECT: CODEL NELSON AND ISRAEL DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE DISCUSS IRAN, SYRIA, LEBANON REF: A. TEL AVIV 4828 ¶B. TEL AVIV 4890 Classified By: PolCouns Marc Sievers for reasons 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (S) SUMMARY: On December 12, Colonel Amit Aviram of Israeli Defense Intelligence (IDI) briefed Senator Bill Nelson (FL) on regional security threats facing Israel. Aviram described the Middle East as caught in a struggle between moderates and Iranian-backed extremists, and said the growing Iranian threat was the Israeli security establishment,s chief concern. IDI believed that Iran would master the uranium enrichment process in 2007, and could have a nuclear weapon by 2010. Aviram said that despite setbacks, Hizbullah was still a formidable force in Lebanon, and was seeking, with Iranian and Syrian assistance, to rebuild its military capabilities. Aviram acknowledged that the interests of Israel and moderate Arab states were beginning to converge, but said that the Arabs needed progress on the Palestinian track before they could publicly cooperate with Israel. END SUMMARY. -------------- Iran: Nukes by 2010 -------------- ¶2. (S) Colonel Aviram told Senator Nelson that the region was caught in a destabilizing struggle between Iranian-backed extremists -- such as Hizballah and Hamas -- and moderate forces -- such as Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Palestinians, Fatah movement. He said Israel,s chief security concern was no longer Palestinian terrorism, but the growing Iranian threat. Aviram said that the Israeli intelligence community believed that diplomacy would fail and that during 2007, Iran would cross a &dangerous new threshold8 by &mastering8 the uranium enrichment process. Iran,s goal, he said, was to stall the diplomatic process indefinitely, in order to wear down the international community until the world is finally forced to accept Iran,s nuclear activities. Given the current rate of progress, he said, Iran would develop a nuclear weapon by 2010. Senator Nelson challengedquestioned this assessment, noting that the U.S. intelligence community believed it would take a little longer for Iran to achieve nuclear weapons. Aviram responded that the 2010 estimate came from a thorough GOI review of all available intelligence, and was based on the assumption that Iran would be able to continue proceeding at the current pace, without running into too many unexpected technical or political obstacles. ¶3. (S) Aviram also highlighted Iranian support for Hizballah and interference in Iraq as serious problems, which had the potential to complicate the West,s efforts on the nuclear issue. He said that Iran continues to provide weapons and training to Palestinian militants. Iranian political and financial support for Hamas was increasing, he said; in recent months, Iran has contributed about $250 million to Hamas. -------------- Hizballah, Lebanon, Syria -------------- ¶4. (S) Aviram said the recent war in Lebanon had been a victory for moderate forces in the region, because it had resulted in the deployment of UNIFIL and LAF forces into southern Labanon. He acknowledged that Hizballah was still active, and was rapidly rebuilding its military capabilities with the help of Iran and Syria, but said that at least it was no longer able to operate openly. The danger at the moment was that Hizballah might succeed in its political bid to topple the moderate government of Lebanese PM Siniora. The IDI also assessed that Hizballah might resort to provocations that could lead to violence and a general deterioration of the situation in Lebanon. Aviram said he hoped the Arab League,s mediation effort would help ease the tensions. Referring to his meeting with PM Olmert (ref. A), Senator Nelson asked whether Israel could have dealt a fatal blow to Hizballah if it had carried on the war for three more days. Aviram responded that the IDF would not have been able to destroy Hizballah completely, given the latter,s ability to conceal weapons and fighters among the civilian population and unwillingness to acknowledge defeat. ¶5. (S) On Hizballah,s rearmament efforts, Aviram said he did not know exactly which weapons Hizballah was now receiving TEL AVIV 00004892 002 OF 002 from Syria and Iran, but said that Israeli intelligence continued to watch supply convoys transit the Syrian border. He described the rearmament process as quiet but &intense.8 In response to a query from Senator Nelson, Aviram said that while both Syria and Iran have been longtime weapons suppliers to Hizballah, Syria had in the past shown a willingness to supply weapons that even the Iranians refused to provide. Under Bashar al-Assad, he said, Damascus had shown a cavalier lack of concern over the traceability of its weapons supplies to Hizballah. During the war, the most damaging weapon used against Israel was a Syrian-made 220mm rocket, he said. -------------- Engaging the Moderate Arab States -------------- ¶6. (S) Senator Nelson offered that there appeared to be a growing alignment of interests between Israel and the more moderate Sunni Arab states, such as Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, who see a growing threat in Iran. Aviram agreed, and said the GOI was exploring ways to leverage this new reality. Aviram cautioned, however, that the ongoing Palestinian conflict made it difficult for the moderate Arab states to cooperate with Israel. &They need progress in the Palestinian arena in order to publicly collaborate with us,8 he said, &but they might also, at some point, be willing to do clandestine things with us, even absent progress on the Palestinian front.8 (NOTE: This view differs from PM Olmert, who argues -- most recently to CODEL McCain (ref. B) -- that the moderate Arabs do not need Israeli concessions to the Palestinians in order to work more closely with Israel against Iran.) ¶7. (U) CODEL Nelson cleared this message. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** CRETZ