APHSCT TOWNSEND'S NOVEMBER 12 MEETING WITH ISRAELI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 004606 SIPDIS THE WHITE HOUSE FOR APHSCT FRANCES FRAGOS TOWNSEND NSC FOR MALVESTI STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA (MAHER),S/CT (AMBASSADOR CRUMPTON) JOINT STAFF FOR J-5 HQ USEUCOM FOR ECJ-5 (KLOTHE) PENTAGON FOR OSD ISRAEL DESK (ANDERSON) E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2026 TAGS: PTER ECON PREL OVIP AMGT ASEC SY LE IS SUBJECT: APHSCT TOWNSEND'S NOVEMBER 12 MEETING WITH ISRAELI DMI FOCUSES ON SYRIA, WAR ON TERROR Classified By: Classified by Charge Gene Cretz. Reasons: 1.4 (b) (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Israeli Director of Military Intelligence MGEN Amos Yadlin told Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism (APHSCT) Frances Fragos Townsend November 12 that Israel distrusts Bashar Asad's overtures regarding peace with Israel. Yadlin believes Asad is actually preparing for the possibility of low-intensity conflict between the two countries, and asked for USG assistance in putting more pressure on Damascus. Yadlin said that all indicators suggest that Syria continues to supply weapons to Hizballah; meanwhile, Hizballah is "not in good shape" and is buying time to rebuild its infrastructure. Yadlin said that Israel is concerned about Al Qaeda's encroachment into the Middle East, including the Gaza Strip. He said that in the wake of the Baker-Hamilton Commission report, Israel might want to re-examine the situation in Iraq. Yadlin praised the U.S. for its successes in the War on Terror and volunteered any help Israel could provide. END SUMMARY. -------------- YADLIN SUGGESTS ENGAGING SYRIA -------------- ¶2. (C) Citing press reports, APHSCT Townsend asked Yadlin whether Israel is considering engagement with Syria. Yadlin characterized the reports as an "out-of-context leak" of discussions that took place the previous week on Israel's policy towards Syria, Lebanon and Iran. Yadlin said that Israel's policy towards Syria is to maintain the status quo, with a quiet border and neither peace nor war. He noted that Syrian President Bashar Asad, meanwhile, seems to be attempting to escalate tensions. Yadlin recounted that in the Syrian President's statements about openness to negotiating with Israel, Asad said that if his efforts to seek peace are not fruitful (which appears likely),then he will go to war. Asad has chosen this rhetorical position, Yadlin said, based on American performance in Iraq and Israel's performance in Lebanon. Knowing that he cannot fight a full-on war against Israel, Asad would prefer to engage in low-intensity conflict involving longer-range missiles and close combat between commando forces -- what Yadlin termed, "a low-signature war." Yadlin clarified that the position he took in the policy discussion -- which was leaked out of context -- was that in such a situation, Israel has a moral obligation to confront him to expose whether he genuinely seeks peace. ¶3. (C) Yadlin said the U.S. should push Asad harder, adding that Damascus is "not worried about sanctions, and the sanctions are not hurting Asad enough." Townsend agreed that Asad's behavior has worsened, and cautioned that engaging him now would reinforce his bad behavior and fail to separate Iran and Syria. Confronting Damascus, Yadlin said, could be a win/win tactic, furthering the peace process and exposing Asad's support for terrorism (even while he pays lip-service to pursuing peace). Yadlin gave Townsend a copy of GOI's ten recommendations on how to increase pressure on Asad, saying, "We have to take everything he cares about and make him pay." -------------- SYRIA RESUPPLYING HIZBALLAH -------------- ¶4. (C) Citing what he acknowledged is a patchwork of evidence and "no smoking gun," Yadlin said that Syria continues to supply Hizballah with weapons: "We see that the Iranians are sending containers belonging to a well-defined unit that deals in Zelzal missiles. We have Muhammed Suleiman doing business. We see a Hizballah logistics man involved. All are pieces. There is no concrete proof, but indications that transfers are taking place." Yadlin added that there is "not a full river" of armaments flowing into Lebanon, but a cluster of "little streams of support." ¶5. (C) Yadlin characterized Hizballah as "not in good shape," saying that the organization's "nightmare" is another war with Israel in the near future. He said that Hizballah needs time to rebuild houses, infrastructure, and its own political reputation before it would be ready for another confrontation. -------------- ASAD'S REGIME FACES NO THREATS FROM WITHIN -------------- ¶6. (C) In response to the Charge's question about whether Asad has solidified his position, Yadlin said that the Syrian leader is in a more confident position than he was a year and a half ago when he "withdrew from Lebanon in a panic." Yadlin said that Syria's priorities are A) regime stability; B) Lebanon; and C) the Golan Heights. Yadlin said that Israel sees no threat to Asad's regime from the inside. He pointed to an increase in the price of oil, along with support from Iran and Russia, as the reasons for Asad's strengthened position. -------------- YADLIN: AL QAEDA IS MOVING WEST -------------- ¶7. (C) Yadlin said that a "preponderance of overt speeches and secret messages" suggests that that Al Qaeda has been moving west. He claimed that some Al Qaeda officials are currently in Iran and move to Iraq from time to time. He claimed that other Al Qaeda figures who have appeared in Iraq and Jordan were behind terrorist attacks in countries neighboring Israel over the past two years. At the end of 2005, Al Qaeda even launched rockets towards Israel from Lebanon. He added that in Gaza, a former Fatah faction has moved closer to Al Qaeda's ideology. Yadlin said that Al Qaeda is not really an organization, but an idea that people join. When Townsend asked Yadlin's thoughts on cooperation between al-Qaida and Shia groups, Yadlin observed that Hizballah hates Al Qaeda more than it wants to cooperate with it. -------------- ISRAEL TO RE-EXAMINE IRAQ -------------- ¶8. (C) Saying that "we have to go back and look at Iraq more carefully," Yadlin expressed interest in what the Baker-Hamilton Commission report would contain. Townsend said that whatever the panel suggests, the U.S. will consider all options that would improve the situation in Iraq. Yadlin replied that Iraq may pose more dangers and opportunities for Israel now. -------------- YADLIN: U.S. SUCCESSFUL IN WAR ON TERROR -------------- ¶9. (C) Yadlin concluded the meeting by saying that the U.S. has been successful in the War on Terror. He asked if the American people are prepared for another five years in the War on Terror. Townsend replied that optimism is a trait that is fundamental to the American character and that we must guard against optimism leading to complacency. Citing the recent airline plot, she noted there must be an acknowledgement of the continuing challenge of terror. Yadlin said that Israel has dramatically reduced Palestinian terrorism, and that as a result, Israel's economic indicators have rebounded. Yadlin emphasized Israel's support for the U.S. in fighting terror. "We share the same enemies and the same values," he said, and he stands ready to share any intelligence requested. ¶10. (C) This cable has been cleared by APHSCT Frances Fragos Townsend. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** CRETZ