APHSCT TOWNSEND'S NOVEMBER 12 MEETING WITH ISRAEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 004605 SIPDIS THE WHITE HOUSE FOR APHSCT FRANCES FRAGOS TOWNSEND NSC FOR MALVESTI STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA (MAHER),S/CT (AMBASSADOR CRUMPTON) JOINT STAFF FOR J-5 HQ USEUCOM FOR ECJ-5 (KLOTHE) E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2026 TAGS: PTER PREL ECON SY LE IR IS SUBJECT: APHSCT TOWNSEND'S NOVEMBER 12 MEETING WITH ISRAEL MOD DG ASKENAZI FOCUSES ON ISRAEL'S NEIGHBORS Classified By: Classified by Charge Gene Cretz. Reasons: 1.4 (b) (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Israeli MOD Director General Gabi Ashkenazi told Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism (APHSCT) Frances Fragos Townsend November 12 that although ISRAEL does not expect another war with Hizballah in the near future, the MOD is studying what it could have done better in order to prepare for the next confrontation. ISRAEL is concerned about Syria's continued support for terrorist organizations, including within Palestinian territory. Although Egypt is doing a better job of controlling the Sinai, Egyptian schools are prejudicing the next generation against Israel. The MOD is worried that Egypt might become unstable in the event of Hosni Mubarak's departure from the presidency. ISRAEL also predicts that Jordan will face a tidal wave of problems "when and if" U.S. forces leave Iraq. Turning to the Global War on Terror, Ashkenazi said the best way to disable terrorist organizations is to remove their state support. ISRAEL would like to see the establishment of a global body to collate information on terrorist organizations, as well as the development of new technologies to detect terrorism-related materials. END SUMMARY. -------------- HIZBALLAH: ISRAEL PREPARING FOR NEXT ROUND -------------- ¶2. (C) Reflecting on the summer 2006 war with Hizballah, Ashkenazi told Townsend that there are mixed feelings in Israel about the results of the IDF's efforts. "We could have done better," he said, adding that the MOD is currently undergoing a process to be ready for "the next time." He stressed, however, that the MOD does not expect the next confrontation with Hizballah to be "right around the corner," and ISRAEL will not initiate any major conflict with the terrorist organization for the time being. Ashkenazi said ISRAEL expects that Hizballah will challenge the enhanced UNIFIL peacekeeping presence in Lebanon within 1-2 months. "Still," he noted, "Hizballah is not suicidal. It will play for time." Ashkenazi said that despite the severe blow Hizballah Secretary General�A;Nasrallah took, he is still a major player in Lebanon, thanks mostly to support from Iran and Syria. Ashkenazi predicted that Iran will not "give up on" Hizballah easily, as it is Tehran's wish to "make Lebanon a Shiite country." In contrast, Israel's policy is to strengthen Siniora and the Fourteenth of March forces in order to enable them to stand up to Hizballah. Ashkenazi cautioned that that there is a race now between the Siniora government and Hizballah for the hearts and minds of Shia in the south. He also warned that Nasrallah will use the Sheba farms, the divided city of Ghajjar, and Israeli Air Force overflights as a pretext for mischief: "In this case, ISRAEL must be very careful." -------------- SYRIA: TO ENGAGE OR NOT TO ENGAGE -------------- ¶3. (C) Ashkenazi said that despite Syrian President Bashar Asad's claims that he would like peace with Israel, Damascus continues to provide weapons to Hizballah. In addition, Syria is also involved in the Palestinian arena, providing help to Hamas. When asked by Townsend whether Asad would be willing to stop supporting terrorism in exchange for the Golan Heights, Ashkenazi responded that there is potential for changing the Syrians' behavior without rewarding them. He also reiterated that it is Israel's policy not to talk with Syria. Characterizing Syria as "the weak link in the chain," Ashkenazi said that he personally thinks that it would be worthwhile to engage Asad: "I do not believe Syria will be a second Libya, but we have to do something, especially as Iran and Hizballah are worried that Syria might change its course." -------------- IRAN: AVOID MILITARY OPTION; WEAN AWAY SYRIA -------------- ¶4. (C) On Iran, Ashkenazi said that ISRAEL does not want to resort to the military option to stop Iran's development of a nuclear weapon. He lamented, however, that the Russians and Europeans appear reluctant to help Israel, the U.S. and like-minded countries apply tough sanctions against Iran. He added that "breaking Syria out of Iran's orbit" would help. Ashkenazi expressed concern that the Shi'ites feel it is "their time" now. He thought that could be used to wean Syria away from Iran: "The Syrians are not the natural allies of Iran. I do not believe that it is in Syria's interest to be isolated by the Shi'ites." -------------- EGYPT: QUESTIONS ABOUT FUTURE LEADERSHIP -------------- ¶5. (C) Responding to Townsend's question regarding Egypt's behavior in confronting terrorists in Sinai, Ashkenazi said that Egypt is doing better than it was before, although it still has room to improve. He attributed the recent improvement to Cairo's realization of the threat it faces from Al Qaeda, particularly in the Sinai. A GOI interagency meeting the previous week had concluded that pressure on President Mubarak was bearing fruit. Ashkenazi expressed hope that Egypt would continue to increase its efforts to control central Sinai. On the other hand, he called Egypt's madrasas and classrooms the real problem, adding that it was disappointing that the country's schools are not preparing the new generation for coexistence alongside Israel. ¶6. (C) MOD Political-Military Bureau Head MGEN (Res.) Amos Gilad emphasized the importance of the U.S. to Egypt, saying that despite the GOI's daily contacts with Egyptian intelligence, "the only language they understand is American English." Gilad added that ISRAEL regularly provides Egypt with the identities of smugglers along the border, but the Egyptian authorities rarely detain them. Turning to the topic of Egypt's leadership, Gilad cited President Mubarak's age, saying that the transition to a new president will be an issue. He predicted opposition to Gamal Mubarak, given that he is not accepted by the Egyptian military. In the worst case, the country could even slide into instability, Gilad said. -------------- TSUNAMI OF PROBLEMS AHEAD FOR JORDAN SIPDIS -------------- ¶7. (C) Turning to Jordan, Gilad said that country would be the most vulnerable "when and if the U.S. leaves Iraq." He predicted that a "tsunami of problems will come flooding in," and stressed that it is in Israel's interest that Jordan remain stable. Because of this, ISRAEL has a policy of responding favorably to Jordanian requests for assistance in fighting terrorism. Gilad noted that in light of the threat to Jordan from some of its neighbors, Amman has reorganized the structure of its army in order to defend the country's borders with Syria and Iraq. -------------- INITIATIVES FOR THE WAR ON TERROR -------------- ¶8. (C) According to Ashkenazi, the key element in eradicating terrorist organizations is to eliminate state support for them. He called this one of the highest priorities, particularly in terms of cost effectiveness. Applying this principle to Hizballah, Ashkenazi said that if there were an accountable government in Lebanon, "we would be in a very different situation now." He added that European governments that have not yet denounced Hizballah might need "a wake-up call." ¶9. (C) Ashkenazi also called for the establishment of a new global body that would collate information on terrorist groups. If terror organizations engage in this kind of information sharing, "then why don't we?" he asked. If Israel were to suggest the creation of such a body, the idea might not be taken as seriously than if the U.S. did so, he ventured. In response, Townsend said that previous counterterrorism negotiations at the UN have become bogged down in semantic debates about the definition of terrorism; instead, the U.S. prefers to work to combat terrorism with a coalition of like-minded states. ¶10. (C) Saying that it is easier to deal with terrorism at borders (before any dangerous materials or individuals reach the interior of the country),Ashkenazi said there is currently "a huge gap" in the screening of cargo and passengers. As a result, he has instructed the MOD's Research and Development Department (MAFAT) to focus on the development of new technologies to detect and combat non-conventional threats at Israel's ports of entry. He also envisions an important role for the private sector in this area, and he recently met with Israeli industrialists to encourage them to develop new technologies such as sensors to detect explosives within crowds. ¶11. (U) This cable has been cleared by APHSCT Frances Fragos Townsend. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** CRETZ