APHSCT TOWNSEND'S NOVEMBER 12 MEETING WITH ISRAEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 004605

SIPDIS

THE WHITE HOUSE FOR APHSCT FRANCES FRAGOS TOWNSEND
NSC FOR MALVESTI
STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA (MAHER),S/CT (AMBASSADOR CRUMPTON)
JOINT STAFF FOR J-5
HQ USEUCOM FOR ECJ-5 (KLOTHE)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2026
TAGS: PTER PREL ECON SY LE IR IS
SUBJECT: APHSCT TOWNSEND'S NOVEMBER 12 MEETING WITH ISRAEL
MOD DG ASKENAZI FOCUSES ON ISRAEL'S NEIGHBORS

Classified By: Classified by Charge Gene Cretz. Reasons: 1.4 (b) (d).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Israeli MOD Director General Gabi Ashkenazi told
Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and
Counterterrorism (APHSCT) Frances Fragos Townsend November
12 that although Israel does not expect another war with
Hizballah in the near future, the MOD is studying what it
could have done better in order to prepare for the next
confrontation. Israel is concerned about Syria's continued
support for terrorist organizations, including within
Palestinian territory. Although Egypt is doing a better
job of controlling the Sinai, Egyptian schools are
prejudicing the next generation against Israel. The MOD is
worried that Egypt might become unstable in the event of
Hosni Mubarak's departure from the presidency. Israel also
predicts that Jordan will face a tidal wave of problems
"when and if" U.S. forces leave Iraq. Turning to the
Global War on Terror, Ashkenazi said the best way to
disable terrorist organizations is to remove their state
support. Israel would like to see the establishment of a
global body to collate information on terrorist
organizations, as well as the development of new
technologies to detect terrorism-related materials. END
SUMMARY.

--------------
HIZBALLAH: ISRAEL PREPARING FOR NEXT ROUND
--------------


2. (C) Reflecting on the summer 2006 war with Hizballah,
Ashkenazi told Townsend that there are mixed feelings in
Israel about the results of the IDF's efforts. "We could
have done better," he said, adding that the MOD is
currently undergoing a process to be ready for "the next
time." He stressed, however, that the MOD does not expect
the next confrontation with Hizballah to be "right around
the corner," and Israel will not initiate any major
conflict with the terrorist organization for the time
being. Ashkenazi said Israel expects that Hizballah will
challenge the enhanced UNIFIL peacekeeping presence in
Lebanon within 1-2 months. "Still," he noted, "Hizballah
is not suicidal. It will play for time." Ashkenazi said
that despite the severe blow Hizballah Secretary General
Nasrallah took, he is still a major player in Lebanon,
thanks mostly to support from Iran and Syria. Ashkenazi
predicted that Iran will not "give up on" Hizballah easily,
as it is Tehran's wish to "make Lebanon a Shiite country."
In contrast, Israel's policy is to strengthen Siniora and
the Fourteenth of March forces in order to enable them to
stand up to Hizballah. Ashkenazi cautioned that that there
is a race now between the Siniora government and Hizballah
for the hearts and minds of Shia in the south. He also
warned
that Nasrallah will use the Sheba farms, the divided city of
Ghajjar, and Israeli Air Force overflights as a pretext for
mischief: "In this case, Israel must be very careful."

--------------
SYRIA: TO ENGAGE OR NOT TO ENGAGE
--------------


3. (C) Ashkenazi said that despite Syrian President Bashar
Asad's claims that he would like peace with Israel,
Damascus continues to provide weapons to Hizballah. In
addition, Syria is also involved in the Palestinian arena,
providing help to Hamas. When asked by Townsend whether
Asad would be willing to stop supporting terrorism in
exchange for the Golan Heights, Ashkenazi responded that
there is potential for changing the Syrians' behavior
without rewarding them. He also reiterated that it is
Israel's policy not to talk with Syria. Characterizing
Syria as "the weak link in the chain," Ashkenazi said that
he personally thinks that it would be worthwhile to engage
Asad: "I do not believe Syria will be a second Libya, but
we have to do something, especially as Iran and Hizballah
are worried that Syria might change its course."
--------------
IRAN: AVOID MILITARY OPTION; WEAN AWAY SYRIA
--------------


4. (C) On Iran, Ashkenazi said that Israel does not want to
resort to the military option to stop Iran's development of
a nuclear weapon. He lamented, however, that the Russians
and Europeans appear reluctant to help Israel, the U.S. and
like-minded countries apply tough sanctions against Iran.
He added that "breaking Syria out of Iran's orbit" would
help. Ashkenazi expressed concern that the Shi'ites feel
it is "their time" now. He thought that could be used to
wean Syria away from Iran: "The Syrians are not the
natural allies of Iran. I do not believe that it is in
Syria's interest to be isolated by the Shi'ites."

--------------
EGYPT: QUESTIONS ABOUT FUTURE LEADERSHIP
--------------


5. (C) Responding to Townsend's question regarding Egypt's
behavior in confronting terrorists in Sinai, Ashkenazi said
that Egypt is doing better than it was before, although it
still has room to improve. He attributed the recent
improvement to Cairo's realization of the threat it faces
from Al Qaeda, particularly in the Sinai. A GOI
interagency meeting the previous week had concluded that
pressure on President Mubarak was bearing fruit. Ashkenazi
expressed hope that Egypt would continue to increase its
efforts to control central Sinai. On the other hand, he
called Egypt's madrasas and classrooms the real problem,
adding that it was disappointing that the country's schools
are not preparing the new generation for coexistence
alongside Israel.


6. (C) MOD Political-Military Bureau Head MGEN (Res.) Amos
Gilad emphasized the importance of the U.S. to Egypt,
saying that despite the GOI's daily contacts with Egyptian
intelligence, "the only language they understand is
American English." Gilad added that Israel regularly
provides Egypt with the identities of smugglers along the
border, but the Egyptian authorities rarely detain them.
Turning to the topic of Egypt's leadership, Gilad cited
President Mubarak's age, saying that the transition to a
new president will be an issue. He predicted opposition to
Gamal Mubarak, given that he is not accepted by the
Egyptian military. In the worst case, the country could
even slide into instability, Gilad said.

--------------
TSUNAMI OF PROBLEMS AHEAD FOR JORDAN

SIPDIS
--------------


7. (C) Turning to Jordan, Gilad said that country would be
the most vulnerable "when and if the U.S. leaves Iraq." He
predicted that a "tsunami of problems will come flooding
in," and stressed that it is in Israel's interest that
Jordan remain stable. Because of this, Israel has a policy
of responding favorably to Jordanian requests for
assistance in fighting terrorism. Gilad noted that in
light of the threat to Jordan from some of its neighbors,
Amman has reorganized the structure of its army in order to
defend the country's borders with Syria and Iraq.

--------------
INITIATIVES FOR THE WAR ON TERROR
--------------


8. (C) According to Ashkenazi, the key element in
eradicating terrorist organizations is to eliminate state
support for them. He called this one of the highest
priorities, particularly in terms of cost effectiveness.
Applying this principle to Hizballah, Ashkenazi said that
if there were an accountable government in Lebanon, "we
would be in a very different situation now." He added that
European governments that have not yet denounced Hizballah
might need "a wake-up call."


9. (C) Ashkenazi also called for the establishment of a new
global body that would collate information on terrorist
groups. If terror organizations engage in this kind of
information sharing, "then why don't we?" he asked. If
Israel were to suggest the creation of such a body, the
idea might not be taken as seriously than if the U.S. did so,
he ventured. In response, Townsend said that previous
counterterrorism negotiations at the UN have become bogged
down in semantic debates about the definition of terrorism;
instead, the U.S. prefers to work to combat terrorism with
a coalition of like-minded states.


10. (C) Saying that it is easier to deal with terrorism at
borders (before any dangerous materials or individuals
reach the interior of the country),Ashkenazi said there is
currently "a huge gap" in the screening of cargo and
passengers. As a result, he has instructed the MOD's
Research and Development Department (MAFAT) to focus on the
development of new technologies to detect and combat
non-conventional threats at Israel's ports of entry. He
also envisions an important role for the private sector in
this area, and he recently met with Israeli industrialists
to encourage them to develop new technologies such as
sensors to detect explosives within crowds.


11. (U) This cable has been cleared by APHSCT Frances
Fragos Townsend.

********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv

You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
CRETZ