CODEL WARNER'S MEETING WITH FOREIGN MINISTER LIVNI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 004001

SIPDIS

H PASS TO SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV OREP IS LE KWBG
SUBJECT: CODEL WARNER'S MEETING WITH FOREIGN MINISTER LIVNI

REF: TEL AVIV 3909

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Gene A. Cretz,
Reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) Summary. CODEL Warner met with Foreign Minister
Livni at MFA October 3 (reftel reports the CODEL's meeting
with Prime Minister Olmert). Asked whether Israel's war with
Hizballah and moderate Arab fear of Iran had created new
opportunities, Livni said Israel had some common interests
with both Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora and Palestinian
Authority President Abbas, but she described both leaders as
"weak." There was good news, she said, that moderate Arab
leaders saw a growing threat from Iran, but the bad news was
that Arab public opinion still viewed Israel as the enemy.
Israel was not sure whether Arab leaders were ready to move
closer to Israel in spite of their public opinion. Israel,
she said, was ready to take "calculated risks," but it would
not compromise on its survival. Turning to democratization
in the Arab world, Livni suggested that acceptance of
democratic values should be a precondition for participation
in elections. In order to ensure that Hizballah remained
weakened, Livni said the international community would need
to enforce the arms embargo. Livni complained that Israel
had failed to convince the Security Council to remove the
reference in UNSCR 1701 to UNIFIL enforcing the arms embargo
"at the request of the Lebanese Government." Hearing that
the CODEL would travel the next day to Beirut, Livni said she
had two messages for PM Siniora: first, the international
community should condition its reconstruction assistance to
Lebanon on getting a "sign of life" for the two kidnapped
Israeli soldiers. Second, Siniora should feel that the
international community is pressuring Syria to respect the
arms embargo. Livni said Israel and the Palestinians could
not end their conflict in the short run, but there was a need
for "new ideas" to "get past the stagnation" but without
risking Israeli security. Asked by Senator Levin whether she
thought the GOI could release a percentage of Palestinian tax
revenues to Abbas, Livni responded that she was in direct
contact with Abbas and it was not clear that he wanted the
money. The question was whether such a step would strengthen
Abbas or Hamas. End Summary.


2. (U) CODEL Warner (Senate Armed Services Committee
Chairman John Warner, SASC Ranking Member Carl Levin, SASC
member Senator Jeff Sessions, and Senator Mark Pryor),
accompanied by the Ambassador, Political Counselor, and
members of the SASC senior staff called on Foreign Minister
Tzipi Livni at MFA October 3. MFA senior staff members also
attended the meeting.

THANKS FOR U.S. SUPPORT
--------------


3. (C) Senator Warner explained that the CODEL was coming
from Amman and Baghdad, and would head on to Beirut October 4
(note: the CODEL was unable to travel to Beirut due to a
technical malfunction of their aircraft). Senator Warner
observed that the CODEL was interested in linkages between
what they had heard in Amman and Baghdad and Israel. Calling
himself a strong supporter of Israel, Senator Warner added
that the U.S. also needed to preserve its role as honest
broker. Livni thanked the United States for its actions in
the region, adding that with U.S. assistance, Israel was
adjusting to new threats from Iran and elsewhere.

NEW OPPORTUNITY FOR ISRAEL TO
WORK WITH MODERATE ARABS?
--------------


4. (C) Senator Levin told Livni that Jordanian King Abdullah
had said he saw new opportunities for moderate Arab countries
to work with Israel as a result of the Arabs' growing
concerns about Iran. The Senator asked whether she shared
that assessment. Noting that she had met with a number of
Arab foreign ministers in New York during the UNGA, Livni
said she agreed the Lebanon war had crystallized the Iranian
threat and raised Arab fears about a rising Shia wave. The
bad news, however, was that the gap between moderate Arab
regimes and their people was growing. Arab public opinion
still saw Israel as the enemy, even though Arab leaders
understood that Israel had taken risks in disengaging from
Gaza. Israel had common interests with moderate Arab leaders
because of their fear of Iran and the Shia, but at the end of
the day the Arabs would ask Israel to compromise on the
Palestinians. Israel, she stressed, was ready to take
"calculated risks," but it would not compromise on its
survival. Senator Warner commented that the U.S. did not
want Israel to make such a compromise.


5. (C) Livni said Israel had some shared interests with both
Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora and Palestinian Authority
President Mahmoud Abbas, but the problem was that both were
"weak." Abbas had pushed to include Hamas in the Palestinian
legislative elections because he had felt he lacked
legitimacy. Arab leaders understood that the resulting
stagnation was not Israel's fault, but they still had to face
the reality of a Hamas-led Palestinian Authority. In
Lebanon, UNSC Resolution 1559 had called for disarming
Hizballah, but Siniora had been too weak to implement it.
Now, however, there was a second chance. Israel would "try
to keep Abu Mazen as an address," she said, but he was very
weak. Livni added that it was not yet clear what would be
the impact of intra-Palestinian violence that occurred in
Gaza a few days earlier.

IMPACT OF DEMOCRATIZATION
--------------


6. (C) Livni said the lesson of the past year was that Arab
political parties that wanted to participate in elections
must first be required to adopt democratic values before
taking part in elections. This should have been a condition
imposed on both Hamas and Hizballah. She commented that it
was very hard for PM Siniora to dismantle Hizballah's militia
when Hizballah was a coalition partner in his government.
She went on to note that UNSC Resolution 1701 and the Lebanon
war could lead to a better future. Hizballah was weakened,
and could be further undermined by enforcement of the arms
embargo. Livni said she had ideas about imposing sanctions
on states that violated the embargo. Nasrallah might be seen
as a new Arab leader in some parts of the Arab world, but not
in Lebanon, where he was seen as the "long arm of Iran."
Livni said she understood Siniora's need to work in the
context of Arab agreements, not the UN. For example, Siniora
referred to the Taif Agreement instead of UNSCR 1559 when he
spoke of dismantling militias in Lebanon. She concluded that
only enforcing the arms embargo would ultimately weaken the
role of Hizballah.

KIDNAPPED SOLDIERS "AN OPEN WOUND"
--------------


7. (C) Senator Pryor asked how the two Israeli soldiers
kidnapped by Hizballah were affecting the process. Livni
replied that the kidnapped soldiers were "an open wound" in
Israeli society. Noting that many foreign leaders had
advised her not to make the soldiers a central issue, Livni
commented that Israel was not like other countries in this
regard. The return of the soldiers had not been the goal of
the Lebanon war, but Israel had wanted to send Hizballah and
Hamas a message that there would be no Israeli tolerance for
kidnappings. Israel hoped the two soldiers could be
transferred to Siniora's custody, but so far there was no
evidence they were still alive.


8. (C) Noting that the CODEL was supposed to travel to
Beirut, Livni said she had two messages for Siniora. The
first came from the wife of one of the kidnapped soldiers,
who had told Livni that she understood that the international
community would contribute to Lebanon's reconstruction, but
said she did not understand why the international community
did not help get proof that her husband was alive. Livni
said she did not want to block assistance to Lebanon, but saw
it as an opportunity to get something in return. Senator
Warner said he would convey this point to Siniora, adding
that the soldier's wife was entitled to know if her husband
was alive.


9. (C) Turning to UNSC Resolution 1701, Livni said it was
unfortunate that enforcement of the arms embargo was
contingent on the request of the GOL. Senator Warner
commented that Siniora did not have the means to enforce the
embargo. Livni said Israel had sought to get this wording
removed from the resolution, but had failed. She said it
would "help Siniora" if the international community insisted
Syria respect 1701 and stop its support for terrorism.
Senator Warner said the CODEL would bring it up with Siniora.


NO END TO CONFLICT IN NEAR TERM
--------------


10. (C) Returning to the CODEL's meeting with King Abdullah
in Amman, Senator Sessions asked if Israel faced an historic
opportunity to work with the moderate Arabs against Iran.
Livni said Arab leaders understood the danger, but needed
something to show their own publics in terms of progress on
the Palestinians. Senator Sessions pressed if this was more
than Israel could offer. Livni said the U.S. needed to
understand that the end of Israel's conflict with the
Palestinians could not be achieved in the near term. There
was instead a need to promote "new ideas to move past the
stagnation" without risking Israel's security. Livni
commented that Hizballah's missiles had disabused Israelis of
the idea that the Separation Barrier would protect them. She
thanked the U.S. for its cooperation with Israel on missile
defense.

11. (C) Senator Levin asked Livni whether Israel could
consider releasing a small percentage of the Palestinian tax
revenues as a Ramadan gesture to Abbas. Livni replied that
she had met with Abbas in New York and spoken to him again on
the phone. When she asked him what he needed from Israel,
she said it was not clear that he wanted the tax money.
Livni concluded that Israel would continue to work with
Abbas. There were no conditions except when it came to the
release of Palestinian prisoners, that could only come in
response to the release of Corporal Shalit. Livni said,
however, that the question with releasing tax revenue was
whether it would help Abbas or Hamas.


12. (U) CODEL Warner did not have an opportunity to clear
this cable.



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