Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TELAVIV3957
2006-10-06 15:03:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:
AVI DICHTER BRIEFS CODEL PRYOR ON STATE OF ISRAELI
how-tonull Leza L Olson 10/10/2006 12:37:45 PM From DB/Inbox: Leza L Olson Cable Text: C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 03957 SIPDIS CXTelA: ACTION: ECON INFO: POL DCM AMB FCS AID PD ADM IPSC SCI IMO CONS RES DISSEMINATION: ECON CHARGE: PROG APPROVED: CDA:GCRETZ DRAFTED: ECON:AABELL CLEARED: CDA:GCRETZ, POL:MSIEVERS, ECON:JWITOW VZCZCTVI399 OO RUEHC RUEHXK DE RUEHTV #3957/01 2791503 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 061503Z OCT 06 FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6787 INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 003957
SIPDIS
CODEL
STATE FOR NEA/IPA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2016
TAGS: EG IS LE KPAL KWBG PTER PREL IR
SUBJECT: AVI DICHTER BRIEFS CODEL PRYOR ON STATE OF ISRAELI
SECURITY
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b,d).
-------
SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 003957
SIPDIS
CODEL
STATE FOR NEA/IPA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2016
TAGS: EG IS LE KPAL KWBG PTER PREL IR
SUBJECT: AVI DICHTER BRIEFS CODEL PRYOR ON STATE OF ISRAELI
SECURITY
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b,d).
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) In an October 3 meeting with Senator Mark Pryor
(D-AR),Public Security Minister Avi Dichter attributed
Israel's relative success in stopping West Bank suicide
bombers to the separation barrier and to "actionable
intelligence" provided by an extensive network of informants.
Commenting on the current state of political hostilities in
the Palestinian territories, he assessed that Fatah was "ten
times" stronger than Hamas in the West Bank, largely due to
GOI arrests of key Hamas leaders there. Dichter, who spent
many years in Gaza, concluded that Fatah "must win" in Gaza
-- where it is now "about even" with Hamas -- if it is to
retain authority over the entire PA. On Lebanon, he was
encouraged that he saw no one visibly armed while watching Al
Jazeerah coverage of Hizballah's recent "victory parade" in
Beirut. He compared Israel's performance in the recent
conflict to the Yom Kippur War, when Israel learned many
"hard lessons" early on before achieving a decisive victory.
Finally, Dichter said that he was "very disappointed" that
the Egyptians are not doing more to interdict weapons
smuggling across the Sinai border into Gaza. End summary.
--------------
DEFENSIVE SHIELD STILL YIELDING RESULTS
--------------
2. (C) Minister of Public Security and former Shin Bet
Director Avraham (Avi) Dichter (Kadima party) provided
Senator Mark Pryor with an in-depth analysis of the current
threat of Palestinian terrorism. Demonstrating total recall
of exact dates and casualty statistics, Dichter first
recounted the major terrorist attacks of the second
Intifadah, of which he claimed that 90 per cent had
originated from the West Bank. Asserting that the GOI had
thwarted over 95 per cent of would-be suicide bombers in
2006, he attributed this success to both the separation
barrier and to "actionable intelligence" provided by networks
of informants that were established as part of the GOI's
Operation Defensive Shield in 2002. He said that such
"solid" intelligence was the product of four years of
arresting and interrogating thousands of Palestinians.
3. (C) Dichter explained that there was no equivalent to
Defensive Shield in Gaza, because then-Prime Minister Sharon
had feared that a multi-front operation would have "paralyzed
the country." According to Dichter, the absence of an
extensive intelligence network and military presence on the
ground in Gaza has limited the GOI's options for pre-empting
Gaza-based terrorist operations. Thus, instead of arrests
and interrogations, the GOI's primary tactic in Gaza remains
targeted killings. Dichter pointed out that no targeted
killings had occurred in the West Bank since Defensive Shield
began in 2002.
--------------
PALESTINIANS AND ISRAELI ARABS
--------------
4. (C) Commenting on the current state of political
hostilities in the Palestinian territories, he assessed that
Fatah was "ten times" stronger than Hamas in the West Bank,
largely due to GOI arrests of key Hamas leaders there. In
Gaza, he maintained that Hamas is "about even" with Fatah.
Dichter, who spent many years in Gaza, concluded that Fatah
"must win" in Gaza if it is to retain authority over the
entire PA.
5. (C) Dichter candidly remarked that the separation barrier
has had a secondary effect of cutting relations between
Israeli Arabs and the Palestinians. He said that Israeli
Arabs had never been "substantially involved" in Palestinian
terrorism because they realize that such involvement would
invite "severe repercussions."
--------------
WAR WITH HIZBALLAH
--------------
6. (C) Dichter, a fluent Arabic speaker, confided that he
watched the recent Hizballah "victory parade" in Beirut on Al
Jazeerah. He was encouraged that he saw no one visibly armed
in a crowd that was estimated to number 500,000. He also
found it remarkable that Nasrallah broke from tradition
during his "victory speech" and did not name any of the
"martyrs" who were killed in the conflict with Israel, even
though the GOI is certain that over 500 Hizballah fighters
were killed. Dichter said that Nasrallah understands that
the "next session" of conflict with Israel will be much worse
for Hizballah. He compared Israel's recent 35-day conflict
with the early stages of the Yom Kippur War (in which he
fought as a commando in the elite Sayeret Matkal). Dichter
said that, as in 1973, the GOI would learn the hard way from
its early mistakes, make necessary adjustments, and "finish
100km from Cairo and 40km from Damascus."
7. (C) Analyzing the damage from the recent war, Dichter said
that Hizballah had killed 53 Israeli civilians with some 4000
rockets fired over 35 days. Stating that he did not mean to
minimize the tragedy of 53 dead non-combatants, he said that
two suicide bombers could have achieved the same result on a
single day in Tel Aviv. He again referred to the second
Intifadah, comparing the 53 fatalities from the summer of
2006 to over 900 Israelis killed between 2000-2003, including
some 150 in March 2002 alone.
--------------
IRANIAN NIGHTMARES
--------------
8. (C) Regarding Iran, Dichter pointed to the year 1998 as
the beginning of a strategic change in Iranian foreign policy
that has continued until the present. He said that Iran's
"worst nightmare" nearly became reality in 1998, when Israel
was seriously discussing peace with Syria. According to
Dichter, the prospect of Israel at peace with all of its Arab
neighbors had frightened Iran sufficiently as to become
"strategically involved" in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
He said that Iran's involvement began with financial
sponsorship of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ),and soon
included financial and material support for Hamas in Gaza.
Dichter concluded that the Hamas electoral victory in the
January 2006 elections represented a strategic victory in
Iran's campaign against Israel.
9. (C) Dichter told the Senator that during the Iran-Iraq
War, Iranian leaders had sent twelve year-old children to
certain death in human wave attacks against Saddam's
military. "Leaders who would do this," he argued, "will do
anything." Addressing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad specifically,
Dichter said that the Iranian President views himself as a
modern-day Salah al-Din, the Kurdish general who drove the
Crusader's from the Holy Land. Reflecting on his experience
as a career intelligence officer, Dichter observed that the
American, British, German and Israeli intelligence services
spend billions of dollars annually to know a political
leader's intentions. "Ahmadinejad," he claimed, "has given
his intentions away for free. He intends to destroy us."
--------------
DISAPPOINTED WITH EGYPT
--------------
10. (C) Dichter said that he was "very disappointed" that the
Egyptians are not doing more to interdict weapons smuggling
across the Sinai border into Gaza. He recounted the special
agreement that Israel had signed in 2005 to allow the elite
Egyptian border guards to patrol the border in order to
prevent such smuggling. He commented sardonically that the
only difference on the ground since the border guards
replaced the Egyptian police is that "the price of the bribe
has gone up." Dichter said that he had addressed this issue
with Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman on many
occasions, but that the Egyptians view the Sinai as a "no
man's land," and take an entirely different attitude towards
security there than they do towards security west of the Suez
Canal.
11. (SBU) Participation.
ISRAEL:
Minister of Public Security Avi Dichter (Kadima)
Director of International Relations Natan Rotenberg
MFA Counselor Iris Sapir
USA:
Senator Mark Pryor (D-AR)
Econoff
12. (SBU) CODEL Pryor did not have the opportunity to clear
this cable prior to departure.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
CRETZ
SIPDIS
CODEL
STATE FOR NEA/IPA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2016
TAGS: EG IS LE KPAL KWBG PTER PREL IR
SUBJECT: AVI DICHTER BRIEFS CODEL PRYOR ON STATE OF ISRAELI
SECURITY
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b,d).
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) In an October 3 meeting with Senator Mark Pryor
(D-AR),Public Security Minister Avi Dichter attributed
Israel's relative success in stopping West Bank suicide
bombers to the separation barrier and to "actionable
intelligence" provided by an extensive network of informants.
Commenting on the current state of political hostilities in
the Palestinian territories, he assessed that Fatah was "ten
times" stronger than Hamas in the West Bank, largely due to
GOI arrests of key Hamas leaders there. Dichter, who spent
many years in Gaza, concluded that Fatah "must win" in Gaza
-- where it is now "about even" with Hamas -- if it is to
retain authority over the entire PA. On Lebanon, he was
encouraged that he saw no one visibly armed while watching Al
Jazeerah coverage of Hizballah's recent "victory parade" in
Beirut. He compared Israel's performance in the recent
conflict to the Yom Kippur War, when Israel learned many
"hard lessons" early on before achieving a decisive victory.
Finally, Dichter said that he was "very disappointed" that
the Egyptians are not doing more to interdict weapons
smuggling across the Sinai border into Gaza. End summary.
--------------
DEFENSIVE SHIELD STILL YIELDING RESULTS
--------------
2. (C) Minister of Public Security and former Shin Bet
Director Avraham (Avi) Dichter (Kadima party) provided
Senator Mark Pryor with an in-depth analysis of the current
threat of Palestinian terrorism. Demonstrating total recall
of exact dates and casualty statistics, Dichter first
recounted the major terrorist attacks of the second
Intifadah, of which he claimed that 90 per cent had
originated from the West Bank. Asserting that the GOI had
thwarted over 95 per cent of would-be suicide bombers in
2006, he attributed this success to both the separation
barrier and to "actionable intelligence" provided by networks
of informants that were established as part of the GOI's
Operation Defensive Shield in 2002. He said that such
"solid" intelligence was the product of four years of
arresting and interrogating thousands of Palestinians.
3. (C) Dichter explained that there was no equivalent to
Defensive Shield in Gaza, because then-Prime Minister Sharon
had feared that a multi-front operation would have "paralyzed
the country." According to Dichter, the absence of an
extensive intelligence network and military presence on the
ground in Gaza has limited the GOI's options for pre-empting
Gaza-based terrorist operations. Thus, instead of arrests
and interrogations, the GOI's primary tactic in Gaza remains
targeted killings. Dichter pointed out that no targeted
killings had occurred in the West Bank since Defensive Shield
began in 2002.
--------------
PALESTINIANS AND ISRAELI ARABS
--------------
4. (C) Commenting on the current state of political
hostilities in the Palestinian territories, he assessed that
Fatah was "ten times" stronger than Hamas in the West Bank,
largely due to GOI arrests of key Hamas leaders there. In
Gaza, he maintained that Hamas is "about even" with Fatah.
Dichter, who spent many years in Gaza, concluded that Fatah
"must win" in Gaza if it is to retain authority over the
entire PA.
5. (C) Dichter candidly remarked that the separation barrier
has had a secondary effect of cutting relations between
Israeli Arabs and the Palestinians. He said that Israeli
Arabs had never been "substantially involved" in Palestinian
terrorism because they realize that such involvement would
invite "severe repercussions."
--------------
WAR WITH HIZBALLAH
--------------
6. (C) Dichter, a fluent Arabic speaker, confided that he
watched the recent Hizballah "victory parade" in Beirut on Al
Jazeerah. He was encouraged that he saw no one visibly armed
in a crowd that was estimated to number 500,000. He also
found it remarkable that Nasrallah broke from tradition
during his "victory speech" and did not name any of the
"martyrs" who were killed in the conflict with Israel, even
though the GOI is certain that over 500 Hizballah fighters
were killed. Dichter said that Nasrallah understands that
the "next session" of conflict with Israel will be much worse
for Hizballah. He compared Israel's recent 35-day conflict
with the early stages of the Yom Kippur War (in which he
fought as a commando in the elite Sayeret Matkal). Dichter
said that, as in 1973, the GOI would learn the hard way from
its early mistakes, make necessary adjustments, and "finish
100km from Cairo and 40km from Damascus."
7. (C) Analyzing the damage from the recent war, Dichter said
that Hizballah had killed 53 Israeli civilians with some 4000
rockets fired over 35 days. Stating that he did not mean to
minimize the tragedy of 53 dead non-combatants, he said that
two suicide bombers could have achieved the same result on a
single day in Tel Aviv. He again referred to the second
Intifadah, comparing the 53 fatalities from the summer of
2006 to over 900 Israelis killed between 2000-2003, including
some 150 in March 2002 alone.
--------------
IRANIAN NIGHTMARES
--------------
8. (C) Regarding Iran, Dichter pointed to the year 1998 as
the beginning of a strategic change in Iranian foreign policy
that has continued until the present. He said that Iran's
"worst nightmare" nearly became reality in 1998, when Israel
was seriously discussing peace with Syria. According to
Dichter, the prospect of Israel at peace with all of its Arab
neighbors had frightened Iran sufficiently as to become
"strategically involved" in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
He said that Iran's involvement began with financial
sponsorship of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ),and soon
included financial and material support for Hamas in Gaza.
Dichter concluded that the Hamas electoral victory in the
January 2006 elections represented a strategic victory in
Iran's campaign against Israel.
9. (C) Dichter told the Senator that during the Iran-Iraq
War, Iranian leaders had sent twelve year-old children to
certain death in human wave attacks against Saddam's
military. "Leaders who would do this," he argued, "will do
anything." Addressing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad specifically,
Dichter said that the Iranian President views himself as a
modern-day Salah al-Din, the Kurdish general who drove the
Crusader's from the Holy Land. Reflecting on his experience
as a career intelligence officer, Dichter observed that the
American, British, German and Israeli intelligence services
spend billions of dollars annually to know a political
leader's intentions. "Ahmadinejad," he claimed, "has given
his intentions away for free. He intends to destroy us."
--------------
DISAPPOINTED WITH EGYPT
--------------
10. (C) Dichter said that he was "very disappointed" that the
Egyptians are not doing more to interdict weapons smuggling
across the Sinai border into Gaza. He recounted the special
agreement that Israel had signed in 2005 to allow the elite
Egyptian border guards to patrol the border in order to
prevent such smuggling. He commented sardonically that the
only difference on the ground since the border guards
replaced the Egyptian police is that "the price of the bribe
has gone up." Dichter said that he had addressed this issue
with Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman on many
occasions, but that the Egyptians view the Sinai as a "no
man's land," and take an entirely different attitude towards
security there than they do towards security west of the Suez
Canal.
11. (SBU) Participation.
ISRAEL:
Minister of Public Security Avi Dichter (Kadima)
Director of International Relations Natan Rotenberg
MFA Counselor Iris Sapir
USA:
Senator Mark Pryor (D-AR)
Econoff
12. (SBU) CODEL Pryor did not have the opportunity to clear
this cable prior to departure.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
CRETZ