DAS DANIN AND KADIMA STRATEGIST DISCUSS MIDDLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000392

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG KPAL IS GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS GOI EXTERNAL
SUBJECT: DAS DANIN AND KADIMA STRATEGIST DISCUSS MIDDLE
EAST PEACE AND ISRAELI ELECTIONS

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones; Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: Political consultant Eyal Arad told NEA DAS
Robert Danin and Ambassador Jones January 25 that Kadima is
ready to fulfill Israel's roadmap obligations and commitments
to the USG, including those pertaining to outposts and
settlements. Arad maintained that Israel must maintain
"security zones" in Palestinian areas to counter tactical
threats and insisted that the Palestinian Authority (PA)
disarm militias. Turning to Israeli politics, he outlined
the reasons for Kadima and Alternate Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert's strong polling numbers, explained how Likud might
use the Hamas issue to regain lost ground, and targeted
undecided Labor voters as an additional pool of potential
Kadima voters. Comment: Arad is a paid consultant for
Kadima. He previously worked for PM Ariel Sharon and is not
an unbiased observer. End comment and summary.

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Kadima will remove illegal outposts
and honor commitments on settlements
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2. (C) Arad said that Olmert's speech to the Herzliya
conference the previous evening had demonstrated that Kadima
does not see the peace process as a zero-sum game and has a
clear vision of the steps necessary to obtain peace. Olmert
had told his audience that Israel's fate is interlocked with
the Palestinians, saying "their welfare is our welfare, their
well-being is our well-being, their stability is our
stability." According to Arad, Olmert realizes that Israel
will need to "give up" most of the West Bank (with the
exception of the major settlement blocks).


3. (C) The Ambassador welcomed Olmert's public remarks about
dismantling illegal outposts. Arad insisted that Kadima
intends to fulfill Israel's roadmap obligations and
commitments to the USG, regardless of whether or not the PA
complies. Disengagement had been intended to lead to the
roadmap or at least to "park" the process until the PA could
fulfill its own commitments, he said. Arad claimed that many
of the settlers are moderating their positions; a prominent
settler activist had presented PM Sharon with a plan in which
settlers in isolated communities would voluntarily move at
government expense to Israel or one of the larger settlement
blocks. DAS Danin and the Ambassador cautioned that the USG
does not condone settlement activity and has always insisted
that any territorial changes in the West Bank be agreed to
with the Palestinians.


4. (C) When Arad spoke of Israel's requirement for "security
zones," the Ambassador noted that security for a country with
little strategic depth derives largely from good relations
with its neighbors and international support. Arad listed
three threats to Israel (long-range missiles, terrorism, and
conventional attacks),arguing that security zones are
important for countering tactical weapons such as Qassam
rockets. He acknowledged, however, that countering the
extremist threat requires a multifaceted approach including
coordination with the PA and Palestinian society,
international arrangements to isolate terrorists, and
security arrangements on the ground. DAS Danin reiterated
the USG's classification of Hamas as a terrorist
organization.


5. (C) Arad complained that both sides feel "cheated" by
Oslo. He questioned whether PA President Mahmud Abbas could
live up to his rhetoric and disarm militias. Arad also
politely criticized the USG's dealings with the PLO for
failing to force the group to dismantle its terrorist
infrastructure. DAS Danin explained how the first phase of
the roadmap is intended to address such concerns.

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Kadima challenged by Likud, seeking votes from Labor
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6. (C) According to Arad, Kadima had been able to sustain its
lead in the polls because of its centrist and pragmatist
policies, not as a result of sympathy for PM Sharon, whom 85
percent of Israelis do not see returning to politics. Sharon
could have chosen to remain in Likud and move it to the
center, said Arad, but once Likud bolted to the right (with
Netanyahu) and Labor went to the left (with Peretz),the
center was wide open for Kadima.


7. (C) When asked by DAS Danin where Kadima is focusing its
campaign efforts, Arad replied that the largest target is
undecided Labor voters. However, he listed Likud as the top
threat to a Kadima victory, saying that Likud could benefit
from a perception that the international community "created"
the Hamas problem by forcing elections on the PA and Israel.
He noted that Kadima's polls show an increase in concern
about security -- the first real jump since the IDF deployed
in the West Bank in April 2002. While Likud had previously
been known for security and Labor had been known for peace,
Arad maintained that "today Kadima owns both fields." He
said polls had shown this to be true with Kadima under Sharon
and "amazingly enough, (it is) also true for Olmert."


8. (C) Arad maintained that as potential government leaders,
polling data showed that "Bibi (Netanyahu) is hated and
Peretz is unappreciated," which leaves the field to Olmert.
In Arad's estimation, sixty percent of former Likud voters
would eventually defect to other parties because of their
strong dislike for Netanyahu. Arad claimed that several
factors had contributed to Olmert's high poll ratings: he
moved into Sharon's job without party infighting; he quickly
addressed tough decisions such as the outpost issue; the
security services accepted his leadership; and he assumed the
job with great sensitivity to Sharon and his family. Arad
noted that Olmert's Herzliya speech -- including
(back-handed) the praise for former finance minister
Netanyahu -- was intended to show that Olmert is now "above
the fray."


9. (U) This cable was cleared by DAS Danin.

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