(C) SNEH: SOLVE ISRAEL-PA CONFLICT BEFORE WAR WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 003691

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2016
TAGS: PREL KWBG LE IR SY IS
SUBJECT: (C) SNEH: SOLVE ISRAEL-PA CONFLICT BEFORE WAR WITH
IRAN


Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b
) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: In an August 24 meeting with Staffdel Talwar,
MK Ephraim Sneh said that that Israel needs to settle the
decades-long conflict with the Palestinians in the next two
or three years. Sneh stated that after the conflict with
Hizballah the concept of unilateral disengagement from the
Palestinians is "dead." He said Israel will need to seek
negotiated solutions, beginning with an economic deal for
Gaza. Sneh postulated that in the wake of such a settlement
it will be possible to form a new regional alliance, with
moderate Arab governments, against Iranian aggression. As
part of this alliance, Sneh described a "small deal" which
the west can extend to Syria to help counter growing Iranian
influence. Sneh said that a commission of inquiry into the
conduct of Israeli military operations during the recent
hostilities would focus on why Israel was not prepared for
the war, and why a decision to send in massive ground forces
was delayed. End summary.


2. (C) Member of the Knesset Defense and Foreign Affairs
Committee Ephraim Sneh said that as long as the regime in
Tehran remains in power, there is no way to avoid a clash
between Israel and Iran. He believes that Israel must
prepare for the coming conflict with the understanding that
it will have to rely solely on its own military for defense.
Sneh said, however, that with limited funds and a "variety of
methods" the U.S. could topple the regime in Tehran because
"most Iranians might not like Israel, but they like American
culture." Describing the coming conflict with Iran as
"existential,", Sneh claimed that Iran is recruiting
Palestinians for Hizballah activities in the West Bank and
Gaza because "they are determined to foil any chance for
peace."


3. (C) To enable Israel to focus on preparations for the
coming conflict with Iran, Sneh suggested forging a
negotiated peace with Palestinians. Sneh claimed that after
the conflict with Hizballah the concept of unilateral
disengagement from the Palestinians is "dead." He cautioned
that it might take Prime Minister Ehud Olmert time to see the
truth in this statement, but that the GOI needs to open
negotiations with the constitutionally-mandated negotiator
for the Palestinians -- Palestinian Authority (PA) President
Mahmud Abbas. Sneh said that Olmert's advisors have been
portraying President Abbas as "moderate but weak" and Hamas
as "militant and strong" because "if you have a strong,
moderate you have to negotiate."


4. (C) Sneh proposed presenting a very simple choice to the
Palestinian people and leadership: Iran or the west. If the
Palestinians choose the west they can have a state with a
viable economy and a decent standard of living. If they
choose to ally themselves with Iran they can expect to live
like the Lebanese in poor Hizballah-controlled villages.
Sneh said that given these two choices he believes that the
Palestinians will choose to ally with the west. He said
forcing such a decision could help to pull the rug out from
under Hamas's base of power. Sneh said that Hamas depends on
a stalemate and no offer of negotiations from Israel to
remain in power.


5. (C) As an initial step towards returning to negotiations
with the PA, Sneh proposed convening an international
conference on the Gaza economy. Comparing Gaza to a
mosquito-filled marsh, Sneh outlined the choice for the GOI
as either spraying pesticide (trying to prevent
Hamas-sponsored attacks),or cleaning up the stagnant water
(improving economic conditions). Sneh said he supports
strengthening Abbas' position by allowing him to pay salaries
to government employees. Sneh said the Middle East is not
"sanitary," and Israel needs to be pragmatic, not moral,
about Abbas's payments to civil servants who may be members
of Hamas. If some of the recent salary payments accidentally
crept into the hands of Hamas members, it is worth the
leakage to procure the loyalty of 100,000 Fatah civil
servants and strengthen Abbas. Sneh also emphasized the
importance of strengthening the Palestinian Presidential
Guard Force.


6. (C) In conjunction with a positive move towards settlement
of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Sneh outlined a "small
deal" to bring Syria to the west and away from Iranian
influence. Sneh presented this small deal as more realistic
than the "big deal" that Syria is seeking -- the return of
the Golan Heights. Sneh proposed that in return for a policy
similar to the one that the U.S. adopted towards Libya, Syria
should be expected to:

-- seal the Syrian-Iraqi border and not allow the transit of
insurgents,

-- stop the supply of arms to Hizballah,

-- stop providing sanctuary to Khaled Misha'al in Damascus;
-- release captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, and

-- cut off funding for militants in Gaza.

Sneh said that the U.S. would not need to promise American
aid to Syria as part of the small deal. Simply an assurance
that the U.S. would "start to treat them normally" should
suffice. He described the small deal as Syria's chance to
"leave the crazy club and join the sane club."


7. (C) Sneh predicted that moderate Arab states might join
Israel and the west in an anti-Iranian coalition. Sneh said
that the emotional pull of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
is the last major obstacle for moderate Arab states to
overcome before forming a lasting alliance with Israel
against Iran. By shifting the strategic balance in the
Middle East, he said that Israel can fend off the coming
conflict with a nuclear-armed Iran.


8. (C) Sneh said that he volunteered to return to military
service during the recent Lebanon conflict and spent 11
nights on the western Israel-Lebanon border. He joked, "I'm
not able to sleep without the sound of artillery fire." Sneh
assessed Hizballah fighters as well trained, well equipped,
and well prepared. Sneh said he expects a commission of
inquiry on the war to examine Israel's preparedness for the
war and why a decision to send in massive ground forces was
delayed. He blamed former Finance Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu for budget cuts that "crippled our military." Sneh
said that the focus of questions on the conduct of the war
will center on the lag-time between when the government
understood that air power alone was not enough to stop rocket
attacks, and the beginning of the ground invasion. Sneh
described public opinion in Israel as bitter because Israelis
believe that "if we do not win, that means that we lose."


9. (U) Staffdel Talwar did not have an opportunity to clear
this message.

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