OLMERT TACKS TO THE CENTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000349 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/IPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS SETTLEMENTS SUBJECT: OLMERT TACKS TO THE CENTER Classified By: Political Counselor Norman H. Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d ). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: "Candidate" Olmert used his first major public address as acting prime minister and Kadima party leader to nudge his party's platform further toward the center, reprising the role he played as Sharon's stalking horse for unilateral disengagement, and once again moving beyond where Sharon had ventured. With his focus seemingly fixed on the March elections, Olmert indicated that he will adhere more closely to his perception of popular preference for moves toward some sort of Palestinian accord than he will to the legacy of Ariel Sharon. While he generally articulated Sharon's policies, Olmert said that he prefers negotiated agreement over unilateral withdrawals; he will limit construction in the settlements; and he will forcibly dismantle illegal outposts. Olmert's well received comments follow other indications that he is edging toward the center, including his decision, taken less than 24 hours after assuming Sharon's authorities, to permit Palestinians to vote in East Jerusalem, and his decision to order the IDF to respond vigorously to riots sparked by settlers. END SUMMARY. -------------- TACTIC I: STICK TO SHARON -------------- ¶2. (C) Ehud Olmert demonstrated loyalty to Ariel Sharon the man in his first major address as acting prime minister through sentimental references to the Prime Minister's health, and to Sharon the Prime Minister through a stated allegiance to the road map that emphasized the imperative for Palestinians "to abandon the path of terror." Olmert continued Sharon's practice of highlighting the demographic argument for Israel's withdrawal from areas populated mainly by Palestinians. Withdrawal from parts of the West Bank, Olmert argued, will "reflect the demographic reality that has emerged" by "guarantee(ing) the existence of a Jewish and democratic state in the Land of Israel." The audience interrupted the speech with applause when Olmert declared that Israel will retain sovereignty over a united Jerusalem, even though he also continued Sharon's habit of omitting reference to Jerusalem's future boundaries. Another burst of applause followed Olmert's declaration that the GOI will not permit Palestinian refugees to return to Israel, a position which he claimed the USG "unequivocally" supports, "as reflected in the letter from the U.S. President to our prime minister in April 2004." -------------- TACTIC II: MOVE TO THE CENTER -------------- ¶3. (C) Olmert employed new language for his party when he described an interdependent relationship between "two nation states, Jewish and Palestinian" in which, he said, "their well-being is our well-being; what's good for them is good for us; their stability is our stability." He also broke new ground by stating a clear preference for negotiated agreement over unilateral withdrawals; saying he will limit construction in the settlements; and pledging to forcibly dismantle illegal outposts. These statements follow other indications that Olmert has edged toward the center, including his decision, taken less than 24 hours after assuming Sharon's authorities, to permit Palestinians to vote in East Jerusalem, and his decision to order the IDF to respond vigorously to riots sparked by settlers. -------------- TACTIC III: APPEAR "PRESIDENTIAL" -------------- ¶4. (C) Tacitly acknowledging for the first time that Sharon will not be returning to public life, Olmert deliberately projected a "presidential" demeanor in his speech. Always admired for his improvisational speaking style, Olmert this time read a written speech; feared for his quick temper, Olmert refrained from attacking his political enemies; reviled for his role as what some termed Sharon's "hatchet man," Olmert praised his archrival, Binyamin Netanyahu, for his work as finance minister. These gestures continue Olmert's calculated effort since the day Sharon collapsed to cultivate a statesman-like image. He has refused thus far to occupy the office of the prime minister or Sharon's seat at the Cabinet table. He immediately dropped his famously provocative and insouciant tone in public interviews. And he changed clothes. As journalist Yosi Verter noted in Haaretz, "Olmert's loud orange ties, which made him stick out in a crowd, have disappeared. They have been replaced by solid royal blue and formal black ties." As the Sharon lieutenant who first articulated the policy of unilateral disengagement -- a huge international and domestic success -- Olmert appears to have confidence in his ability to gauge the pulse of the people, and to see that public firmly planted in the center. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** JONES