ZELIKOW AND GILAD DISCUSS TRAITS OF INTERNATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 02961 SIPDIS CXTelA: ACTION: DAO INFO: RES POL AMB DCM DISSEMINATION: DAO CHARGE: DAO APPROVED: DAO: WCLARK DRAFTED: DAO: WCLARK CLEARED: NONE VZCZCTVI713 RR RUEHC RHEFDIA DE RUEHTV #2961/01 2111733 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 301733Z JUL 06 FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5272 INFO RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC//DHO-6// -------------- header ends -------------- C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002961 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2016 TAGS: PREL PINR PTER KPAL KWBG IS LE SUBJECT: ZELIKOW AND GILAD DISCUSS TRAITS OF INTERNATIONAL FORCE FOR SOUTHERN LEBANON, IDF PROGRESS, WAY AHEAD CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR RICHARD H. JONES; REASONS: 1.4 (B AND D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: MG (RES) AMOS GILAD, ISRAELI MOD ADVISOR FOR POLITICAL AND MILITARY AFFAIRS, TOLD COUNSELOR ZELIKOW 29 JUL 06 THAT INTERNATIONAL FORCE MUST BE EMPOWERED TO ENFORCE CEASEFIRE AS NECESSARY, TO DEPLOY FROM BLUE LINE NORTH TO NAHR AL LITANI, IF NOT NAHR AL AWALLI, AND TO TRAIN THE LEBANESE ARMY. NOTED PROGRESS SHOWN TO DATE AGAINST HIZBALLAH, MADE CASE FOR OPERATIONS SEVEN TO TEN MORE DAYS TO HIGHLIGHT HIZBALLAH AS SERIOUSLY WEAKENED AND TO DEAL WITH KATYUSHA THREAT. END SUMMARY. -------------- EUROPEAN FEEDBACK ON INTERNATIONAL FORCE; NOW ISRAEL'S TURN -------------- ¶2. (C) COUNSELOR AND SENIOR POLICY ADVISOR TO SECSTATE ZELIKOW EXPRESSED TO MG (RES) AMOS GILAD, ISRAELI MOD ADVISOR FOR POLITICAL AND MILITARY AFFAIRS, HIS DESIRE TO COMMUNICATE TO GOI CURRENT STATUS RE INTERNATIONAL FORCE FOR SOUTHERN LEBANON FOLLOWING HIS DISCUSSIONS IN ROME, BRUSSELS, LONDON, PARIS, AND ANKARA, AND TO FIND OUT WHAT ISRAEL HAS ACHIEVED THUS FAR IN THIS CAMPAIGN, WHAT HER FURTHER GOALS ARE, AND WHAT SHE NEEDS TO ACHIEVE THEM. IN ISRAEL'S OPINION, WHAT ARE THE MILITARY REQUIREMENTS FOR THE INTERNATIONAL FORCE, AND WHAT SHOULD THIS FORCE BE EXPECTED TO DO? ZELIKOW REQUESTED A GRANULAR SENSE OF THE SITUATION SO AS TO ENSURE THAT THE INTERNATIONAL FORCE IS AS USEFUL AS IT CAN POSSIBLY BE. -------------- WHAT ISRAEL HAS ACHIEVED TO DATE; WHAT REMAINS TO BE DONE -------------- ¶3. (C) GILAD RESPONDED THAT THERE IS A GAP BETWEEN THE IMAGE OF ISRAEL'S SUCCESS (I.E., LACK OF) AND THE REALITY ON THE GROUND (MORE SUCCESSFUL THAN IS REALIZED). FOR EXAMPLE, GILAD CLAIMED, HAIFA WAS NOT ATTACKED TODAY BECAUSE HIZBALLAH NO LONGER POSSESSES THE CAPABILITY TO DO SO. 220 MM ROCKETS HAVE NOT BEEN FIRED FOR FOUR DAYS. TOO, ISRAEL DEALT HIZBALLAH'S STRATEGIC (LONG RANGE) ROCKETS CAPABILITY A BIG BLOW THROUGH THE USE OF SENSITIVE INTELLIGENCE TO LOCATE LAUNCHERS HIDDEN IN HOUSES AND HIT THEM (PART OF THE PRE-PLANNED TARGET SETS) IMMEDIATELY ON THE OUTBREAK OF HOSTILITIES. CURRENTLY, 50 PERCENT OF 220 MM AND FAJR 3 LAUNCHERS ARE DESTROYED FOLLOWING LAUNCHES. THUS, THE PERSONNEL WHO ARE EXECUTING THE LAUNCH HAVE COME TO REALIZE THEY HAVE A ONE IN TWO CHANCE OF NOT LIVING TO LAUNCH AGAIN. IDI PERSONNEL ESTIMATE NOW THAT THEY HAVE DESTROYED MOST OF THE ZILZAL LAUNCHERS (THIS ESTIMATE QUOTED AS BASED ON VERY SENSITIVE INFORMATION),80 PERCENT OF THE 220 MM LAUNCHERS, AND 60-70 PERCENT OF THE FAJR 3 LAUNCHERS. ¶4. (C) CONDUCT OF GROUND OPERATIONS IS MUCH EASIER GOING THAN JUST THREE DAYS AGO (A REFERENCE TO THE LOSS OF NINE SOLDIERS, EIGHT OF THEM AT BINT JUBAYL) AND CERTAINLY TWO WEEKS AGO. IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, 26 HIZBALLAH HAVE BEEN KILLED IN BINT JUBAYL, 70 TOTAL IN THIS TOWN OVER THE COURSE OF THE CAMPAIGN. ESTIMATES ARE THAT JUST 30 HIZBALLAH REMAIN THERE. THESE 100 TOTAL HIZBALLAH (70 KILLED OVER THE COURSE OF THE CAMPAIGN PLUS THE 30 THAT REMAIN ALIVE) ARE/WERE SPECIAL FORCES, HARD TO REPLACE, AND RESPONSIBLE FOR THE KIDNAPPING OF THE TWO SOLDIERS. ACROSS THE AOR, IDF HAS KILLED 50-80 HIZBALLAH IN THE LAST THREE DAYS. HIZBALLAH COMMAND AND CONTROL CAPABILITIES HAVE BEEN DEALT SOME BLOWS, BUT ARE STILL FUNCTIONING. IDF ASSESSES THAT NASRALLAH IS FULLY BRIEFED AND CURRENT. -------------- WHAT THE SHOOTING IS ALL ABOUT: HIGH STAKES -------------- ¶5. (C) GILAD COMMENTED THAT THIS IS NOT A WAR BETWEEN HIZBALLAH AND ISRAEL, BUT RATHER BETWEEN ISRAEL AND AN EXTENSION OF IRAN. AT THIS MOMENT, SYRIA AND IRAN ARE ENCOURAGED. IF ISRAEL DOES NOT CONVINCINGLY DEMONSTRATE TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, INCLUDING THE ARAB WORLD, THAT SHE HAS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED HIZBALLAH MILITARILY (HE CONSIDERED THIS WOULD TAKE SEVEN TO TEN MORE DAYS), NASRALLAH WOULD EMERGE A HERO AND UNDERWRITE HAMASSTAN AND HIZBALLAHSTAN. SPECIFICALLY, SEVEN TO TEN DAYS WOULD ALLOW ISRAEL TO DEAL WITH THE KATYUSHAS. CONTRARILY, A CEASEFIRE TOO EARLY WOULD PRESERVE THE ACHIEVEMENT AND IMAGE OF HIZBALLAH AS HAVING STOOD UP TO ISRAEL. GILAD SAID THIS SCENARIO REMINDED HIM OF THE SPANISH CIVIL WAR. "WE CANNOT END WITH THIS IMAGE. WE MUST FINISH." GILAD DID NOT CONFIRM THAT FUTURE LARGE SCALE GROUND OPERATIONS WOULD BE CONDUCTED TO "TAKE OVER THE LITANI", BUT HE SAID SUCH OPERATIONS WOULD TAKE NO MORE THAN FOUR DAYS IN HIS OPINION. HE OBSERVED THAT LARGE SCALE GROUND OPERATIONS AND OPERATIONS OF SPECIAL FORCES (SMALL UNITS) ACROSS VARIOUS LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH COULD BE SEEN AS ONE IN THE SAME. -------------- THE CHALLENGE -------------- ¶6. (C) ZELIKOW STATED THAT HIZBALLAH, POST HOSTILITIES, MUST BE PERSUADED THAT IT SHOULD HENCEFORTH SHUN MILITARY ACTION AND EMBRACE POLITICAL ACTION AS THE WAY AHEAD. GILAD RESPONDED THAT HIZBALLAH KNOWS IT IS WEAKENED MILITARILY, BUT IT IS MAINTAINING A BRAVE FACE. THE CHALLENGE IS TO INSURE THE LEBANESE PEOPLE AND THE WORLD COME TO KNOW IT. HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT NO ONE WILL BELIEVE IT AS LONG AS 90 ROCKETS PER DAY LAND IN ISRAEL. ZELIKOW REMARKED THAT ISRAEL MUST POSITION ITSELF TO TELL A GOOD STORY PRIOR TO THE UN RESOLUTION - ISRAEL HAS DEALT THE AGGRESSOR, HIZBALLAH, A CRIPPLING BLOW. BUT, THERE IS A FINE LINE TO BE STRADDLED HERE. IF HIZBALLAH IS BEATEN UP TOO MUCH, THIS EFFORT WILL HAVE AN OPPOSITE, UNDESIRED EFFECT, I.E., SWING THE SYMPATHY VOTE, PARTICULARLY THAT OF THE ARAB WORLD, IN THEIR DIRECTION. -------------- THE INTERNATIONAL FORCE CONCEPT -------------- ¶7. (C) ZELIKOW POINTED TO CORE REQUIREMENTS THAT MUST BE MET TO SUCCESSFULLY EXIT THIS CONFLICT - A POLITICAL FRAMEWORK, CESSATION OF OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS, RAPID INTRODUCTION OF LEAD ELEMENTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL FORCE (THE REMAINDER OF WHICH MUST FOLLOW QUICKLY),AND FINALLY, A VIABLE CEASEFIRE. THE INTERNATIONAL FORCE MUST BE ONE THAT HIZBALLAH AGREES NOT TO ATTACK (OR IT WILL NOT COME), AND IT MUST HAVE ROBUST RULES AND BACKING WHICH DERIVES FROM A UN RESOLUTION THAT MANDATES DISARMAMENT AND NO ATTACKS ACROSS THE BLUE LINE. ALSO, GOL MUST UNDERSTAND THE ROLE THEY PLAY IN DISARMAMENT. ¶8. (C) GILAD RESPONDED THAT THE NEW MULTI-NATIONAL FORCE ABSOLUTELY MUST BE CHAPTER SEVEN OPERATIONS ELIGIBLE, RESEMBLE THE INTERVENTION FORCE OF NATO, AND MUST ESTABLISH A PRESENCE AT NINE DIFFERENT SYRIA-LEBANON BORDER CROSSINGS (SPECIFIC CROSSINGS TO BE PASSED AS FOLLOWUP) TO PRECLUDE IRAN AND SYRIA'S RESTORATION OF HIZBALLAH'S WEAPONS INVENTORY FOLLOWING CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES (OR ALL WILL HAVE BEEN FOR NOUGHT),AND MUST TRAIN THE LEBANESE ARMY. HE COMMENTED THAT THE LEBANESE ARMY COULD CLAIM TWO RELATIVE SUCCESSES - SUCCESSFUL OPERATIONS AGAINST AL QAIDA IN LEBANON AND AGAINST PFLP-GC. THESE PAST AREAS OF SUCCESS MIGHT PROVE CRITICAL IN FUTURE IF HIZBALLAH, IN THIS NEW ENVIRONMENT AND WITH NEW RULES OF THE GAME, LOOKS TO THE PALESTINIANS TO TERRORIZE IN THEIR STEAD. GILAD EXPRESSED A DESIRE THAT THIS FORCE, REGARDLESS OF BEDDOWN LOCATION, BE EMPOWERED TO ACT ACROSS ALL OF LEBANON IN ORDER TO DEAL PROPERLY WITH THE STRATEGIC LONG RANGE ROCKET THREAT. TURNING TO PERSONNEL MAKEUP, HE ENCOURAGED ARAB OR MUSLIM PARTICIPATION, PERHAPS TURKISH OR JORDANIAN, TO HELP LEGITIMIZE THE FORCE. ¶9. (C) ZELIKOW DESCRIBED THIS PROPOSED FORCE AS LESS RESEMBLANT OF AN INTERVENTION FORCE AND MORE A MULTI- NATIONAL FORCE WITHOUT A LEAD COUNTRY OR LEAD ORGANIZATION, SOMEWHAT BLURRY IN THIS REGARD, BUT WITH A REAL COMMANDER AND A REAL HEADQUARTERS. THE EU AND NATO MIGHT PROVIDE PLANNING ELEMENTS, THE BRITISH, FRENCH, ITALIANS, AND SPANISH MIGHT PLAY ROLES, AND THE U.S. MIGHT SERVE AS ENABLERS (LOGISTICS, INTELLIGENCE, AND AIR SUPPORT) FROM OFF SHORE. REGARDLESS OF END COMPOSITION, THIS FORCE MUST BE HIGHLY COMPETENT AND HIGHLY PROFESSIONAL. IF GOL, GOI, U.S., EVERYBODY BUT HIZBALLAH AGREES TO THE LAYING ON OF AN INTERNATIONAL FORCE IN SOUTHERN LEBANON, THEN HIZBALLAH WILL REVEAL ITSELF VERY PUBLICLY AS THE PARTY STANDING IN THE WAY OF PEACE. ZELIKOW COMMENTED THAT SINIORA HAS REVIEWED THE DOCUMENTS AND HAS A STRATEGY - TO TAKE AWAY HIZBALLAH'S EXCUSE IN LEBANESE POLITICS AND TO POLITICALLY ISOLATE THEM. SHAABA FARMS, HOWEVER, IS A NETTLESOME ISSUE. ¶10. (C) GILAD WORRIED THAT THE MONEY (IRAN WOULD PUT AN UNLIMITED BUDGET AGAINST THIS) THAT WOULD FLOOD INTO LEBANON POST CONFLICT WOULD NOT BE CONTROLLED PROPERLY AND THAT APPROPRIATE APPARATUSES SHOULD BE PUT IN PLACE TO DO SO. OTHERWISE, THE DAWA WOULD REBUILD THE SOUTH AND IRAN'S INFLUENCE WOULD PENETRATE EVEN MORE DEEPLY. ¶11. (U) COUNSELOR ZELIKOW DID NOT CLEAR ON THIS MESSAGE.