SHINUI LEADER LAPID TO CODEL OBAMA: OLMERT LIKELY

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 000180 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2016 TAGS: PGOV KPAL IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL SUBJECT: SHINUI LEADER LAPID TO CODEL OBAMA: OLMERT LIKELY TO BE NEXT PRIME MINISTER Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Shinui leader Tommy Lapid told Senator Barack Obama and the Ambassador January 10 that he believes that the most likely scenario will be that Alternate Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will be elected as Prime Minister in the March 28 elections, provided he can hold the newly established Kadima party together. Lapid did not indicate that the Kadima cohesion is at risk. Lapid, who was joined by close associate Shinui MK Eti Livni, told Obama that Olmert invited him and Livni to his residence on January 8 as close friends and confidantes in the aftermath of Prime Minister Sharon's January 4 hospitalization and the temporary transfer of Sharon's authority to Olmert. Lapid stressed his closeness to Olmert and emphasized that he would join in a coalition with Kadima if headed by Olmert. Note: A Dialog poll published January 11 shows that if elections were held today, Kadima would win 44 out of 120 Knesset seats, a rise of four seats from a poll conducted January 5. The poll also shows Shinui receiving only four seats, down 11 seats from its showing in the last elections. End note. ¶2. (C) Asked whether Sharon's departure from the political scene would affect the peace process, Lapid and Livni asserted that Olmert would be even more dedicated than Sharon to moving the peace process forward. Lapid said that the main problem for Olmert would be "taking Kadima along with him." Lapid assessed that the main obstacles to peace now come from the Palestinian side, not from Israel. He said that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is a "decent" man who wants peace, but, Lapid underscored, Abbas is "not capable" of bringing peace. Commenting on the January 25 Palestinian Legislative Council elections, Lapid said that if Hamas carries a majority, the peace process could be postponed for another generation. ¶3. (C) On party primaries, Livni noted that Shinui's 170-member council will rank the party's Knesset list January 12 and that she is still campaigning for a high slot. After noting her closeness to Olmert, Livni intimated that she would consider switching to Kadima if she does not receive a high enough position on the list. She could not say whether others in Shinui were also considering such a move, but given the party's collapse in the polls, this cannot be ruled out. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** JONES