OLMERT'S SUPER-COALITION DEALS SOW DISCONTENT,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001617 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2016 TAGS: PGOV IS GOI INTERNAL SUBJECT: OLMERT'S SUPER-COALITION DEALS SOW DISCONTENT, POINT TO NARROWER COALITION Classified By: DCM Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. SUMMARY: (C) The continuing and much bally-hooed difficulties that Ehud Olmert is facing in forming what he asserted would be a broad, 84-MK coalition government reflect the "souk" political dynamic that, historically, has yielded consistently narrow-majority Israeli governments. Olmert had aimed -- at least rhetorically -- for a government that reached from the left to the right, from pro-peace to push-out-the-Arabs, from fiscally conservative to social welfare bleeding hearts, with the religious parties thrown in for good measure. With reality settling in, Olmert is now making sounds of a narrower coalition -- perhaps as low as 66 seats, if Shas and Yisrael Beinteinu, for example, walk away with their 23 seats and Meretz then brings in five seats -- that follows in the traditions of Israel's governments. He is still pledging to form a coalition, regardless of size, by May 4, the end of his initial 28-day period for doing so, but he could well end up taking negotiations into the oft-used 14-day extension period allowed by law. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Olmert had been touting since his election win an 84-member coalition consisting of centrist Kadima's 29 MKs, left-center Labor's 19 MKs, rightist Yisrael Beiteinu's 11 MKs, the seven MKs from the Pensioners Party, and the total of 18 MKs from the religious Shas and United Torah Judaism parties. That constellation left Olmert facing -- even with a bloated 27-minister Cabinet -- frantic competition among and within parties for specific high-powered Cabinet slots, even before anyone has begun to address parties' serious budgetary demands and divisiveness on peace process issues. In particular, some Kadima loyalists and Labor heavy-hitters (some self-identified) have been shocked, shocked at not having been offered the appointments they had sought. Right off the bat, Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu balked at what ministries they were to receive. ¶3. (C) The trading remains ongoing, but among principal deals, Olmert and Labor leader Peretz agreed that Labor would get seven Cabinet slots, with Peretz himself going to Defense rather than to Finance, which he had sought. Kadima would retain Finance, Foreign Affairs, and Justice. Widespread media criticism of Olmert and Peretz for forming a "bloated" Cabinet of 27 ministers -- instead of the traditional 23 -- as well as demands by Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu for additional ministries prompted Olmert to press Peretz to cede Labor's seventh seat. When Peretz refused, Olmert instead convinced him that the government should have no deputy ministers, except for a single slot promised to United Torah Judaism. That decision, which must still be approved by both Labor and Kadima, cut the rug out from under a gaggle of largely self-identified deputy minister contenders and has drawn criticism from several parties. Most indicative is the criticism of the decision from within Labor, where sources are publicly questioning the ability of their own party leader to handle the Defense Ministry without an experienced deputy. ¶4. (C) Among the other unhappy contenders who may or may not end up in the dust bin: -- In what some are terming the shortest tenure of an MK in Israeli history, Uriel Reichman -- considered a big catch by Kadima during its formation -- resigned his Knesset seat, quit politics and returned to academia April 24 when he learned that he would not get the Education Ministry. Labor MK and closest Peretz confidant Yuli Tamir is to get the job as part of the deal that brought Labor in as senior coalition partner. Reichman claims that PM Ariel Sharon had promised him the education portfolio, and, in an act that has won him some ridicule, Reichman rejected Olmert's consolation prize of the high-profile Justice Ministry. -- Defense Minister and first-time MK Shaul Mofaz, who had firmly pledged to stick with his old Likud party last fall -- until he lost badly in Likud leadership elections and followed Ariel Sharon to Kadima -- will lose Defense, to be replaced, if the deals hold, by Peretz, a security rookie. Mofaz has few friends within Kadima, where last fall's party switch and his ego -- and the absence of Ariel Sharon -- have cut his power. Absent some cataclysm, Mofaz may have to settle -- at best -- for a low-end portfolio. -- Former Ben Gurion University President and first-time MK Avishai Braverman, depicted as Labor's newfound economy expert during the campaign, will likely not receive any ministerial position, despite his placement as number four on Labor's Knesset list. An accomplished self-promoter considered by many "a legend in his own mind," Braverman could follow Reichman out the door if he does not get a position he deems worthy. -- MKs Ami Ayalon and Efraim Sneh, both heralded as Labor security experts, will likely not receive any ministerial appointments. Sneh, a long-time MK, former deputy defense minister and brigadier general, and perceived contender for the Labor leadership, had been pegged to be Peretz's "experienced" deputy minister of defense. Ayalon, a former admiral and Shin Bet chief with an unbounded ego, had reportedly seen himself as a minister, preferably at Defense. -- MKs Majallie Whbee, Marina Solodkin, Eli Aflalo, Ronit Tirosh, and Ruhama Avraham, all of whom followed Sharon from Likud to form Kadima, and Labor MKs Michael Melchior and Orit Noked, appear, according to the current version of the Olmert-Peretz deal, to have lost out on the deputy ministerial positions on which they had been planning. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** JONES