ISA DISKIN DISCUSSES HAMAS AND PLC ELECTIONS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000117 SIPDIS CODEL DEPARTMENT FOR H E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2016 TAGS: PREL PINR PGOV IS KPAL KDEM GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS GOI EXTERNAL SUBJECT: ISA DISKIN DISCUSSES HAMAS AND PLC ELECTIONS WITH CODEL ACKERMAN Classified By: Political Counselor Norman H. Olsen for reasons 1.4 (B/D ). ¶1. (C) Summary: Israel Security Agency (ISA or "Shin Bet") Director Yuval Diskin briefed Representative Gary Ackerman January 5 on the future of Israeli politics in light of Prime Minister Sharon's health, the revolution within Fatah, and the implications of a Hamas victory in upcoming Palestinian elections. Diskin predicted that Hamas would be the "real winner" in the election, and specified conditions under which Israel might be willing to deal with the organization: (1) Hamas will have to change its charter; (2) it must meet the roadmap obligation to disarm the militants; and (3) stop all terror activity. Diskin told Ackerman that Shin Bet does not have any back channels with Hamas at present, but could easily establish one if so directed by the Prime Minister. He blamed Fatah's probable poor showing on the failure of Abbas as a party leader. End Summary. -------------- Israeli Politics -------------- ¶2. (C) ISA Director Diskin and his international relations director, Alan Moss, briefed Representative Ackerman and his staff (David Adams, democratic professional staff member and Howard Diamond, deputy chief of staff and legislative director). Diskin said prospects for the peace process are gloomy in light of what he termed PM Sharon's slim chances for full recovery. A Sharon victory in the elections would have meant a strong center with a real majority in the Knesset, but now the state of the Prime Minister's health has "changed the political game." Diskin assessed that the loss of Sharon will have negative repercussions for Fatah, whose leaders understand that Sharon is a strong leader and the only one who can move things forward. "In the Middle East, everyone likes strong people," he said. -------------- Palestinian Elections -------------- ¶3. (C) Diskin predicted that Hamas would be the "real winner" in the election, going from no seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) to tens of seats. The strategic problem for Israel and for the Palestinian Authority, he said, is the weakness of Fatah. Diskin explained that Shin Bet had been approached by Fatah elements who fear poor electoral results and thus seek to postpone the upcoming elections. A further complication, he explained, is that Palestinian public opinion polls are showing that 30% of voters have not decided for whom they are voting. -------------- PA Leadership -------------- ¶4. (C) Diskin said that he does not believe that any current Palestinian leaders receive a comprehensive picture of what is going on in Gaza and the West Bank and that this hinders their decision-making ability. He further claimed that no one in the Palestinian leadership receives as complete a picture of what is happening in the territories as his organization does. -------------- Revolution Within Fatah -------------- ¶5. (C) Diskin said that Abbas's most glaring strategic failure to date is that he decided to behave as a Palestinian leader, not as a leader of a political party. Within Fatah, the younger generation is trying to take over, with some success. They took seven of the ten first places on the Fatah list, but they are not completely satisfied, as they did not succeed in getting all of their important candidates on the list. Diskin said that the revolution within Fatah might initiate a process that strengthens Fatah in the future. -------------- Implications of Hamas Election Success -------------- ¶6. (C) Diskin said he believes that should Hamas win a large percentage of votes in the PLC elections, the movement will try to take control over specific ministries, such as Health, Welfare and Education, as these provide the best channels to spread their ideological message and are also good cover for financing their other activities. Diskin said he believes that Abbas is committed to the U.S. and Israel, but a Hamas victory would make it very hard for him to run the peace process and to implement phase one of the road map. Two factors -- good election results and listing Barghouti in the first place on the Fatah list -- would make it easier for Hamas to form a coalition with Fatah, in Diskin's view. In response to Ackerman's inquiry about what will happen if Hamas wins over a majority in the election, Diskin said that Hamas must: (1) change its charter; (2) meet the roadmap obligation to disarm the militants; and (3) stop all terror activity. If Hamas does these three things, "we can deal with Hamas," Diskin said. Without taking these three steps, Diskin said, Hamas would have no international legitimacy. ¶7. (C) When asked if there is anyone within Hamas with whom the Israelis can work, Diskin responded that, at present, Hamas cannot be trusted and that the Shin Bet does not have any back channels with Hamas at present. He said that five years ago, however, a back channel was opened through talks with Hamas activists in Israeli prisons, and he intimated that this could be an option in the future: "If we want to deal with Hamas, the best place is to start with prisoners because they have influence with leadership in Syria." Hamas, Diskin concluded, is a serious professional organization that knows how to think about issues and reach rational conclusions -- for their own interests. The political leadership in Gaza, Syria and the West Bank is intelligent and better than Fatah's, and it has the strength to deliver -- when they order a halt to terrorist acts, 99% obey, Diskin said. ¶8. (U) Codel Ackerman did not have an opportunity to clear this message. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** JONES