PERETZ, THE SHEPHERD WHO AWAITS THE RETURN OF HIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 001086 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAL KWBG IS GOI INTERNAL ELECTIONS SUBJECT: PERETZ, THE SHEPHERD WHO AWAITS THE RETURN OF HIS FLOCK (C-NE6-00442) REF: TEL AVIV 1049 Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Labor Chairman Amir Peretz told the Ambassador and DCM March 17 that he believes that the large number of still undecided voters will be pivotal on election day. Peretz speculated that Labor's real public support may be larger than current polls indicate as traditional Laborites who left the party when he was elected return to the party. Turning to the Hamas victory, Peretz acknowledged that Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmud Abbas is weak, but he criticized the GOI for contributing to his weakness by publicly referring to him as such. Peretz emphasized the need to act quickly to provide humanitarian assistance directly to the Palestinian people and advocated that the Hamas government be left on its own to deal with government services and infrastructure needs. Within six months to one year, Peretz gauged, the Palestinian people will be ready to elect new leaders. In response to the Ambassador's query, Peretz underlined his general opposition to unilateral withdrawals from the West Bank, unless they are used to motivate the Palestinians to take positive steps toward a peace process. He called instead for "creative" solutions to the current situation and spoke of the need to distinguish between economic issues, which could be solved relatively easily, and more difficult emotional issues like Jerusalem. Peretz advocated dismantling all illegal outposts within one year and decreasing the number of checkpoints in and around large Palestinian cities. End summary. -------------- Peretz Pins Hopes on Return of the Faithful -------------- ¶2. (C) A visibly tired Peretz told the Ambassador and DCM March 17 that it is more difficult to predict the outcome in this election than in any prior election. Peretz said many voters have been attracted to Kadima because it is new and seems to offer something to everybody -- on the left and the right. He compared Kadima to a mall where people could do one-stop shopping, whereas the traditional parties, he added, are the specialized "boutiques" that offer quality over convenience. Peretz assessed that only on election day will voters decide whether to stay at the mall or go back to their traditional boutiques. Peretz stressed that events near election day will probably be more important in this election than in any previous election. ¶3. (C) Peretz estimated that some 25 percent of voters are undecided, a number he assessed would continue climbing as elections near, rather than decrease, as is usually the case in Israel. Peretz assessed that Labor has a "good chance" of pulling larger numbers than the polls now indicate. He estimated that Labor lost about eight Knesset seats worth of public support soon after he was elected party leader as some of the more traditional Labor voters left the party for Kadima. He said that Labor compensated for this loss, however, by gaining eight Knesset seats worth of public support from new sectors that had traditionally voted for Likud. Peretz said that the question now is how much of the public support that was lost will return to Labor on election day. He claimed that many of those who left are already returning. In response to the Ambassador's query, Peretz agreed that Kadima member Shimon Peres's characterizing Kadima and Labor positions as identical seemed aimed at holding on to traditional Labor voters who had shifted to Kadima. ¶4. (C) At one point in the conversation, Peretz commented that the "feeling on the street" is that the USG is "working for Kadima." The Ambassador stressed that the USG does not involve itself in the internal politics of other countries. He pointed out that he had purposely turned down press interviews and speaking requests to avoid being drawn into partisan politics. He acknowledged, however, that it is common during an elections for it to appear that the USG supports the incumbent party since it continues to work with the government in power on ongoing matters of state. -------------- - Peretz Urges Quick Action to Help Palestinians -------------- - ¶5. (C) Peretz turned the conversation to Hamas, and criticized the USG and GOI for publicly referring to PA President Mahmud Abbas as weak, since, he contended, these statements only serve to further weaken Abbas. Peretz acknowledged that Abbas is weak, but referred to him as "our only alternative." Peretz said that both the old Fatah guard, such as Mohammed Dahlan, as well as the new Hamas leaders, need Abbas -- the former to save Fatah, and the latter to put a "better face" on the new PA government. Peretz characterized the USG position as having changed since the Hamas victory, with the U.S. first saying that no aid should go to the PA and then advocating some aid to the PA. The Ambassador clarified that the USG had always advocated that humanitarian assistance reach the Palestinian people, but that aid not go through the PA once Hamas assumed control of the government. He noted that the USG had traditionally not provided much assistance to the PA in any case, since most of U.S. aid went through NGOs. He added that the USG had asked the PA to return unspent direct USG project assistance. ¶6. (C) Switching to Hebrew, Peretz underlined that the Palestinians and Israel are now dependent on each other and that a wall between them could not change this any more than a wall between two sides of a house could protect one side from a fire in the other side. Peretz repeatedly urged that the USG and GOI act quickly to provide the Palestinians humanitarian assistance and advised increasing greatly the number of NGOs through which the USG is providing assistance. He cited the danger of a growing "axis" of fundamentalism in the region that could include the PA, Lebanon, and Iran. He said that the Hamas government should be left to provide government services and infrastructure while NGOs and Fatah provide humanitarian assistance. Hamas and Fatah, Peretz said, would then be switching roles. Peretz assessed that in this scenario, within six months to one year, the Palestinian people will seek elections. He noted that Abbas could call elections at any time, but also expressed concern that Abbas could consider resigning one or two weeks after Hamas forms a government. He agreed with the Ambassador's assessment, however, that Abbas currently appears more positive and engaged. (Note: Peretz met with Abbas on Allenby Bridge on March 2. End note.) -------------- Peretz Rejects Diplomatic Impasses -------------- ¶7. (C) Turning to the possibility of future unilateral withdrawals, Peretz said he is not against such moves in principle, as it had worked in Gaza, where the withdrawals were to internationally recognized borders. Unfortunately, withdrawing in the West Bank to non-recognized borders, he said, will not gain strong international approval is likely to be wholly rejected by the Palestinians, even though some withdrawal from occupied territory has been achieved. However, he was careful to add that in some cases the threat of unilateral moves could be used as an ultimatum to motivate the Palestinians to take positive steps. Peretz urged that "creative solutions" be used before resorting to unilateral moves. In response to the Ambassador's query about what are possible creative solutions, Peretz indicated that he is considering several ideas, including the so-called "Hong Kong" model that would provide for the long-term leasing by the GOI of settlement blocs from the Palestinians, adopting the model of Great Britain and China with regard to Hong Kong. Peretz also mentioned the "land swap" idea, but did not indicate if he was specifically referring to Yisrael Beiteinu ("Israel, Our House") leader Avigdor Lieberman's proposal that Israel redraw its border with the West Bank to place some Israeli-Arab population centers that are close to the Green Line within Palestinian territory, and to include some Israeli settlement blocs within Israel (reftel). ¶8. (C) Peretz asserted that resolving economic issues, such as competing Israeli and Palestinian land claims, is not as difficult as addressing emotional issues, such as the status of Jerusalem and the right of return of the Palestinian refugees. "A good Middle Eastern salesman can solve the issue of the settlement blocs," Peretz said. He underlined his experience as a negotiator -- referring to his tenure as head of the Histadrut Labor Federation -- and stressed that in order for negotiations to succeed the parties must understand each other and both parties must have something to lose if they abandon the agreement. ¶9. (C) Peretz emphasized that he would remove all of the illegal outposts within one year in order to uphold Israel's rule of law, and would therefore not need pressure from the USG to do so. He said he would also decrease the number of checkpoints in and around major Palestinian cities. Both of these moves would serve as confidence building measures with the Palestinians, he said. He indicated that as part of a coalition, he would push the government to take these steps. Peretz ended the discussion by stressing the importance of getting rid of Hamas, having trouble finding the English word he needed to describe what should be done with Hamas, he reached for a chocolate chip cookie on the table and crumbled it. ¶10. (SBU) Bio note: Peretz managed fairly well in English at the beginning. As the conversation moved to more sensitive topics, he switched to Hebrew to express himself "more precisely." These remarks were ably translated to English by his international affairs advisor, Oriella Ben-Zvi. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** JONES