WITHOUT ARIK, MORE RUSSIAN-SPEAKING VOTERS SEEK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 001049 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KWBG IS GOI INTERNAL ELECTIONS SUBJECT: WITHOUT ARIK, MORE RUSSIAN-SPEAKING VOTERS SEEK STRENGTH IN LIEBERMAN REF: TEL AVIV 480 ¶1. (SBU) Summary and comment: Israel's Russian-speaking electorate, which numbers close to one million, represents one of the most important target populations in the upcoming elections, one that could determine an allocation of some 15 to 20 of the 120 Knesset seats, according to academics and pollsters. Experts stress that Russian speakers are drawn to parties with strong, right-leaning leaders that have a concrete plan for dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Other evidence shows, however, that the largest single bloc of Russian voters has consistently gone to the party winning the most votes in the national elections. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, for instance, took the majority of the Russian-speaking vote in the 2003 elections because of his strong, right-leaning character. Without Sharon, however, Kadima's support in this sector stands at 17-20 percent, while about one third of Russian-speaking voters have embraced Moldovan-born Avigdor Lieberman's right-of-center Yisrael Beiteinu ("Israel, Our Home") party. Experts assess that Likud currently has about 12-14 percent support among Russian speakers, that some 14-17 percent of this sector is undecided, and that an additional 14 percent are decided but wavering. In the two weeks before the elections, the major parties are targeting Russian speakers with clever Russian-language ads and special candidate appearances in a bid to win over the undecideds. Current polls show Yisrael Beiteinu winning nine to 10 Knesset seats -- in contrast to the total of seven seats it received as part of the National Union party list in the 2003 elections. If those numbers hold, Lieberman's party will be a force to be reckoned with in its own right, either as part of a right-wing opposition along with Likud and the National Union party, or, as part of a Kadima-Labor coalition. One expert assessed that A/PM Olmert's decision to order the IDF's successful raid on the Jericho prison will help Kadima maintain its current support among the Russian-speaking electorate. End summary. -------------- Wanted: Strong, Hawkish Leader -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Dr. Eliezer Feldman, director of the Russian-speakers department of the Mutagim Institute polling company, Dr. Ze'ev Khanin, professor of Political Science at Bar Ilan University, and Mina Zemach of the Dahaf Polling Institute met separately with Poloff March 7, 8 and 9, respectively, to discuss the role of Russian-speaking voters in the upcoming elections. Feldman, who has been conducting regular polls and focus groups among Russian-speaking voters, and Khanin, who also serves as a political commentator in the Russian-speaking media, are both Russian-speaking immigrants themselves. Feldman and Khanin assessed that there are 700,000-750,000 Russian-speaking voters in Israel, of whom some 60 percent will actually vote. That 60 percent represents about 15 percent of those Israelis who actually vote. Their analyses of the Russian-speaking electorate, along with that of Zemach, closely tracked one another. ¶3. (SBU) The three experts echoed the view that the Russian-speaking electorate is basically right-leaning on both economic and security issues, which accounted for the majority of Russian-speaking support enjoyed by Ariel Sharon. Ma'ariv journalist Nadav Eyal added in a March 13 article that the majority of the Russian-speaking electorate has typically sided with the ultimate winner. "In all the elections over the last 12 years, the new immigrants forecast the results. In 1992 they went with Rabin, in 1996 they were charmed by Netanyahu, in 1999 they were enthused by Barak...and in 2001 they turned to the old general Sharon to provide security and stability," Eyal wrote. ¶4. (SBU) The three above-cited experts assessed that in the upcoming elections, Russian speakers will determine 15-20 of the 120 Knesset seats. Feldman gauged that because the Russian-speaking vote is divided among several parties at this point, however, it will not be decisive in determining the next prime minister. Khanin stressed that the Russian-speaking sector will, instead, play an important role in determining the relative strength of Kadima and Likud. ¶5. (SBU) Feldman, Khanin, and Zemach assessed to Poloff that based on recent polls, among the Russian-speaking voters: -- 30-35 percent support Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu (YB) party -- which would translate into actual votes sufficient to account for eight of the 10 seats that polls show the party would win if elections were held today; -- 17-20 percent support Kadima -- which would account for four to five of the 37-39 seats that polls show Likud would win if elections were held today; -- 10-14 percent support Likud -- which would account for three to four of 14 seats that polls show the party would win if elections were held today; -- only about one percent support Labor, and a negligible percentage supports left-of-center and secular parties; -- about 30 percent are up for grabs, with 14-17 percent of this number "floating votes," genuinely undecided, and the remainder wavering in their allegiance to a party. (Note: A Teleseker poll released March 10 in the major daily Ma'ariv of 304 Russian-speaking immigrants tracks these figures. End note.) ¶6. (SBU) Feldman assessed that, had Sharon remained leader of Kadima, Russian speakers would have voted for the party in numbers sufficient to account for 10 Knesset seats, instead of the four to five seats now predicted. Since Sharon's hospitalization January 4, many, realizing that Sharon would not return to politics, have shifted their support away from Kadima, mainly to Lieberman, according to Feldman and Khanin. Russian speakers both identify with Lieberman, who is an immigrant from the former Soviet Union, and like his tough, decisive, almost macho image, according to Feldman and Khanin. In contrast, the Russian speakers perceive both Alternate Prime Minister Olmert and Likud Chairman Netanyahu as weak, and, according to Feldman, as not fully accepting the Russian-speaking immigrant community. Zemach added that Russian speakers also view Netanyahu as untrustworthy, and Feldman estimated that as much as 40 percent of the Russian-speaking electorate actually dislikes Netanyahu. Netanyahu, however, fared better than Olmert in the March 13 Teleseker poll. ¶7. (SBU) Feldman, Zemach, and Khanin said that placement of Russian immigrants on the Kadima and Likud lists has not helped either party. They claimed that Russian speakers view Russian-born Kadima MK Marina Solodkin, number six on its Knesset list, as a social worker, rather than a political leader. He added that based on the results of one of his recent focus groups, Kadima would do better dispatching FM Tzipi Livni to the Russian-speaking street, because she is viewed there in a positive light and is often compared to former Prime Minister Golda Meir. According to Feldman and Khanin, Russian speakers are not being drawn to Likud despite the presence of Russian immigrant Natan Sharansky and Ukrainian immigrant Yuli Edelstein, numbers 11 and 15 on the list, respectively, since neither are viewed as strong leaders. Many Russian speakers who supported Sharansky's immigrant-oriented Yisrael b'Aliya party -- which has since merged with Likud -- in the last elections have shifted their support to Lieberman, according to Zemach. ¶8. (SBU) Turning to Labor, the three assessed that Russian-speakers feel no "chemistry" with Labor Chairman Amir Peretz, and that many associate his appearance, replete with thick mustache and salt and pepper wavy hair, and buttressed by Peretz's socialist-leaning economic policies, with Joseph Stalin. A January 26 Jerusalem Post article quoted Labor campaign advisor David Kimche dismissing any hope that his party could attract the Russian vote. Feldman said that despite the fact that more than one third of Russian speakers have been hurt by former Finance Minister Netanyahu's cuts in social benefits, they are not supporting Peretz because of his image and because he advocates what they perceive as Soviet-style economic policies. -------------- Fear, A Big Motivator -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Zemach asserted that the Hamas victory in the January 25 Palestinian Legislative council elections contributed even more than Sharon's departure from the scene to Kadima's decline in the polls among the Russian-speaking sector. She said that a poll Dahaf conducted shortly after the Hamas victory showed that Kadima had lost two seats that came from the Russian-speaking electorate and went to Lieberman's party, because Russian speakers believe Lieberman can deal with Hamas. Feldman said that according to his research, most Russian speakers do not want war, but want Israel to achieve a "smart" peace. Zemach assessed that since many immigrants from the former Soviet bloc countries had never owned property until they came to Israel, it is hard for them to consider that Israel give up land. -------------- Show Us a Plan -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Many Russian speakers support Lieberman because he has a concrete plan about how to address the issue of maintaining Israel as a Jewish, democratic state, according to Feldman. In his so-called "land swap" plan, Lieberman proposes that Israel redraw its border with the West Bank to place some Israeli-Arab population centers that are close to the Green Line within Palestinian territory, and to include some Israeli settlement blocs within Israel (reftel). Feldman said that Lieberman's plan resonates with Russian speakers because, according to his research, 60 percent of this population believes that Israeli Arabs hate Israeli Jews, and the Russian speakers are thus fearful of Israeli Arabs (as well as Palestinians). Zemach echoed this view. A March 12 Ha'aretz article reports that Russian-speaking political analysts predict that Olmert's recent announcements about additional unilateral withdrawals to determine Israel's final borders will help Kadima win more Russian speaking voters. Ha'aretz reported that a Russian-language Channel 9 television broadcast on March 10 called Olmert's announcement a "brave step." The article pointed out, however, that the Russian-speaking sector's response to Olmert's "plan" will not be fully known until after Kadima publicizes the plan during the week of March 13. -------------- Courting the Undecided -------------- ¶11. (SBU) According to Feldman and Khanin, about 30 percent of Russian speakers are so-called undecided voters. Zemach assessed, however, that of this 30 percent, about 14-17 percent are truly undecided and about 14 percent are leaning toward a party but are not locked in. YB's campaign ads feature the Russian words "Nyet (no),Nyet (no),Da (yes)" transliterated into Hebrew characters under the photos of Olmert, Likud Chairman Netanyahu, and Lieberman, respectively, urging Israelis how to vote in the upcoming elections. Kadima and Likud have launched television and billboard campaigns that include Russian subtitles, and many of the smaller parties are also using Russian subtitles in their ads. Likud, Kadima and YB are also employing outreach efforts to the Russian-speaking community to shore up their support. Speaking to the Russian speakers' strong identification with Russian culture, including the younger generations, Lieberman has incorporated music from a Russian-Jewish singer popular among the Israeli Russian-speaking community in his website. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** JONES