HONDURAS: CONOCOPHILLIPS WINS CONTROVERSIAL FUEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TEGUCIGALPA 002265 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EB/ESC, WHA/EPSC, WHA/PPC, AND WHA/CEN STATE FOR D, E, P, AND WHA TREASURY FOR DDOUGLASS STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAM NSC FOR DAN FISK E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2016 TAGS: ENRG EPET HO PGOV PINR PREL SUBJECT: HONDURAS: CONOCOPHILLIPS WINS CONTROVERSIAL FUEL BID REF: TEGUCIGALPA 2247 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: AMB Charles Ford for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 1.(C) Summary: The Honduran national bid for all of the country,s fuel needs, recommended just over a year ago by a GOH-appointed review panel, finally came to a conclusion November 29. U.S. fuel company ConocoPhillips was selected to supply premium, regular and diesel fuel, while Mexican company Gas Del Caribe won the bid for LPG Gas. The bids for fuel oil (Bunker) were declared technically insufficient, while the bids for Kerosene and Aviation Fuel were declared non-competitive. Controversy continues to swirl, however, with fuel trader Trafigura Beheer maintaining their bids were the best, industry analysts questioning the GOH,s savings estimates, and everyone wondering how the current Bunker importers skirted the bid process. How informed ConocoPhillips is regarding the highly charged storage and import situation is unclear, and whether they can come to terms with Texaco and Honduran retailer DIPPSA will soon be known. End Summary. ¶2. (U) The winners of the Honduran national bid for all the country,s fuel requirements was formally announced November ¶29. A gleeful President Jose Manuel &Mel8 Zelaya identified U.S. fuel company ConocoPhillips as the winner to supply an estimated 8 million barrels of premium, regular and diesel fuel, identifying over USD 40 million per year in savings. Mexican-based natural gas retailer Gas Del Caribe won the bid for an estimated 1 million barrel equivalents of LPG Gas, an estimated savings of over USD 10 million. (Comment: The total savings of just over USD 50 million per year was questioned by every importer contacted by EconOff. How they arrived at that figure remains a mystery. End Comment). The bids for 7 million barrels of bunker fuel were declared technically insufficient, and the prices for the relatively small quantities of Kerosene and Aviation Fuel were declared non-competitive. -------------- CONOCOPHILLIPS LEVERAGES HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL -------------- ¶3. (C) In a November 30 phonecon with EconOff, the ConocoPhillips representative organizing the bid indicated 
that he had been notified unofficially that he had won, and that he should be receiving an official letter November 31. He also stated that his regional representative, an Argentine national named Andrew Shashan (phonetic interpretation of name),was &close to people running the bid8 and had been providing an on-going status. Shashan also stated that the storage situation on both the north and south coasts had been solved. (Comment: Other industry sources confirm that Shashan is close to the U.S. citizen consultant organizing the bid. It is difficult to believe that the deadlocked position on the use of Texaco, DIPPSA and Exxon facilities has been solved, and a potential confrontation between at least two U.S. companies may be a possibility. EconOff advised the ConocoPhillips rep to verify independently that terminal and storage usage has been arranged. End Comment). ¶4. (C) The ConocoPhillips rep also detailed how they were able to provide such a low price point for the bids (reftel). As Post had suspected, ConocoPhillips refineries have an excess capacity of high-sulfur fuel that would require a considerable investment to &blend-off8 with lower sulfur fuels to meet increasingly stringent U.S. standards. Winning the Honduran fuel bid, per the rep, would allow the company to place their off-spec fuel while developing a regional market. The strong economics allowed them to beat the next closest competitor by almost six U.S. cents per gallon (Comment: The six cents does not come close to the GOH,s estimate of 25 U.S. cents savings per gallon. End Comment). -------------- TEGUCIGALP 00002265 002 OF 004 TRAFIGURA MAY CHALLENGE RESULT -------------- ¶5. (C) Meanwhile, the company many thought would win the bid was left shaking their heads in amazement. Trafigura Beheer, which submitted 19 comprehensive bids that included all fuel types, both coasts, and storage and terminal agreements with Honduran fuel retailer DIPPSA, lost on every count. In a November 30 meeting with EconOff, Honduran Trafigura representative Roberto Alvarado remained convinced that they had rendered the best bids, and showed EconOff a spreadsheet detailing what he believed were impossible savings identified by the GOH. (Comment: Reliable Embassy sources state that Alvarado had several sets of numbers and showed EconOff the one that would cast the most doubt on the process. He did, however, qualify the numbers as rough, and the questionable figures were highlighted independently by other importers. Alvarado,s effort, though, seemed designed to win EconOff,s confidence and potential Post support if Trafigura attempted to challenge the bid result, which they seem intent on doing. End Comment). ¶6. (C) It is unclear if Trafigura,s 50 percent purchase of DIPPSA, widely reported in the press, will continue to go through in light of the bid result. Alvarado indicated that Trafigura was &frustrated8 with DIPPSA owner Henry Arevalo,s machinations and conflicting statements, and that the deal had not been formally concluded. He also indicated that Banco Atlantida head Guillermo Bueso was holding the shares and stubbornly refusing to close the deal. (Comment: In response to concerns about the role DIPPSA was playing in the bid process, Bueso indicated to Ambassador and EconOff that any deal for DIPPSA, particularly involving Trafigura, would require &at least a couple of months of due diligence,8 effectively separately a potential deal for the Honduran fuel retailer from the bid process. End Comment). Alvarado denied the rumor that Arevalo would get a premium for the purchase if Trafigura won the bid, stating that the DIPPSA deal &just made good business sense8 and would go through with or without the bid. Given Arevalo,s history with potential suitors for his company, the prospects of the 50 percent deal actually going through may be waning. -------------- CONTROVERSY SURROUNDS THE OTHER PARTICIPANTS -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The winner of the only other successful bid, Gas Del Caribe, has had its own share of problems. The company recently constructed several storage tanks in the coastal town of Omoa that have been declared a potential environmental hazard and have yet to be used. Apparently questions still remain regarding the structural integrity of the storage units, fire control systems, and potential contamination of a nearby lagoon. It is not clear if use of these storage units was included in the winning bid. ¶8. (C) The failed bid for bunker fuel, which constitutes the largest single fuel item in the tender, is also wrapped in controversy. Per the GOH, the five bids for the fuel used to power electricity generators contained 3 percent sulfur, while the four private generators that produce the energy require 2 percent. Per the written bid proposal, only 2 of the 4 generators require less than 3 percent sulfur, the lowest being Luffusa at 1.8 percent. Documents obtained from the fuel bid analysis commission, however, indicate that at least one bid, from PetroPeru, was specifically for bunker fuel in Luffusa. (Comment: Many speculate that the owners of the plants, business magnate Freddy Nasser and Central American Business Man of the Year Schukry Kaffie, came to a quiet agreement with the GOH over the plants in undefined terms. End Comment). ¶9. (C) Just before the winners were announced, representatives from the importers were called to a meeting TEGUCIGALP 00002265 003 OF 004 in Miami with Presidential confidant Arturo Corrales. In the first meeting, held the day before the announcement, Corrales raised the hopes of the importers by describing how President Zelaya was looking for a way out of the bid, and talked of a potential free market alternative in the likely event the entire process was terminated because sufficient savings could not be found. The importers left that meeting feeling that an agreement could be reached on virtually all points. The next day, however, Corrales, tone changed, this time demanding 30 percent access to Texaco storage facilities for the bid winner at a rate negotiated by the GOH. The importers, principally Texaco, responded that the rate could only be negotiated between private parties and would not guarantee a rate to the GOH. The importers left disillusioned and doubtful that any agreement could be reached. (Comment: It is unclear why Corrales changed his tone overnight, but it is most likely tied to the surprise decision to award the tender to ConocoPhillips. End Comment). ¶10. (C) In a November 30 meeting with President Zelaya and Ambassador, Finance Minister Rebecca Santos for the first time expressed concern over the GOH,s role in the financing process. In order to make the bid work, the GOH would need to play the intermediary, assuming responsibility of the product from ConocoPhillips or Gas Del Caribe and passing that on to the downstream distributors. At a minimum, the GOH would need to provide some type of guarantee, and maybe the initial deposit on the first shipment to begin the process. When confronted with this reality Santos balked, saying that no money was available to front a potentially million dollar deal. (Comment: Post has questioned how this transaction would proceed from the very beginning of the process. The fact that the GOH could effectively put themselves in the middle of the process opened the initial potential for PetroCaribe, which would have allowed the GOH to finance 40 percent of the import costs while turning around and collecting on 100 percent from the distributors. It also could allow the GOH to play the float, or differences in credit terms between what ConocoPhillips requires and what the GOH demands from distributors. End Comment). ¶11. (C) COMMENT. While the bid has by no means gone smoothly, and the end results are just as confusing and wrapped in controversy as the over year long process needed to get to this point, one thing seems clear: the regional designs of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez using Honduras as a springboard appears to have been stalled. The threat of a soft financing deal through PetroCaribe is diminished, a plan which may have allowed President Zelaya,s Liberal party to finance projects and public works, win the people,s hearts, and set up his party for the next elections while needlessly growing the country,s debt burden. Also diminished is the potential use of DIPPSA,s strategic southern storage farm for distribution of fuel to PetroCaribe-financed municipalities in Nicaragua and El Salvador. And Zelaya,s potentially strategic role in the spreading of left leaning populism in Latin American through Chavez, petro-diplomacy is reduced. ¶12. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: What apparently remains is good old fashioned corruption, what many observers believe may be an attempt by the U.S. citizen consultant or potentially Presidential advisor Yani Rosenthal or even President Zelaya himself to place themselves at the center of a potential USD 1 billion business; a business where one or two U.S. cents per gallon could easily fall off the table into someone,s pocket without notice. In the full scheme of things, a ConocoPhillips victory may actually work, if the company can come to terms with Texaco and Exxon on terminal use, storage and distribution. Big issues still remain, however, including the breaking of current supply contracts, the role of the GOH in financing the transaction, and how ConocoPhillips will live up to the big (and unsupported) savings announced by the GOH. Post will monitor developments TEGUCIGALP 00002265 004 OF 004 closely. END SUMMARY FORD