PARANOIA IN FLIGHT: KARIMOV ACCOMPLISHES LITTLE IN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 000992 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL UZ ZK SUBJECT: PARANOIA IN FLIGHT: KARIMOV ACCOMPLISHES LITTLE IN PAKISTAN Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY AMB. JON R. PURNELL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D) . ¶1. (S) Summary: Prior to President Karimov's visit to Islamabad, Pakistani DCM Malik said the two largest issues facing Uzbekistan and Pakistan were transportation and customs problems. Pakistani Ambassador Kamran reported that Karimov's visit produced few tangible results, but stressed that the Uzbeks seemed more open than during last year's summit in Tashkent. Post has heard rumors of flights between Uzbekistan and Pakistan recommencing in July. Both officials agree that bilateral relations have improved since 2005. Kamran attributed the improvement in part to increased intel-sharing. Karimov refused to fly through Afghan airspace during his trip out of fear for his security. End summary. ¶2. (C) On May 2, President Islam Karimov visited Islamabad to discuss the future of Uzbek-Pakistani relations. This visit reciprocated President Musharraf's March 2005 trip to Tashkent. Pakistani Ambassador Sajjad Kamran told the Ambassador this was mostly a working visit with little pomp and circumstance. There was one face-to-face, private meeting between the two presidents. All other meetings were open to the delegation, including senior officials such as Uzbek Foreign Minister Ganiev, the Chief of the Air Force, and senior National Bank of Uzbekistan and customs officials. Kamran said that the Uzbeks took the opportunity to congratulate Pakistan on its "ability to have good relations with both the U.S. and China." Karimov reiterated to Musharraf Uzbekistan's support for the Global War on Terror, adding that Uzbekistan continues this effort not to please the U.S., but because it is important in its own right. Ten Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) were signed on topics ranging from fighting terrorism, to plant quarantines, to bank cooperation. Kamran told the Ambassador that he does not expect any concrete results from these new agreements any time soon. ¶3. (S) Separately, Pakistani DCM Shahbaz Malik told the DCM that the two sides signed a protocol on counterterrorism. This is a follow-up to an earlier agreement on intel-sharing that included the possible repatriation of Uzbeks picked up in Pakistan. Kamran said last year the Pakistanis repatriated a number of Uzbeks terrorists detained in Pakistani tribal areas. He believes this had a positive effect on the bilateral relationship. ¶4. (C) In April, Malik told poloff that Uzbekistan and Pakistan need to work on transportation issues, including reestablishing direct flights and improving customs control. The lack of direct flights, he noted, restricts trade. Uzbek business owners import Pakistani goods mostly by air as extra baggage because the land routes are poorly developed. Kamran told the Ambassador that flights may resume this summer, but the Uzbeks will have to make the first move. On May 18, a local Pakistani businessman told Pol-Econ Chief that an Uzbek Air delegation was currently visiting Karachi and Lahore to finalize plans to begin a Tashkent-Lahore flight. According to that source, flights are schedule to begin July 15 and will originate in Birmingham, UK. Karimov refused to fly through Afghan airspace to Islamabad, said Kamran, because of security concerns. Additionally, Kamran said Pakistani airlines are uninterested in flying to Tashkent as they believe it would be unprofitable. According to Kamran, Uzbek fears of overflying Afghanistan have been a real stumbling block to establishing direct flights. ¶5. (C) Uzbekistan and Pakistan do not have a transit treaty. According to Malik, this inhibits commerce via land routes as the roads are poorly maintained (especially in Afghanistan) and customs regulations are often arbitrary. The DCM attributed this problem mostly to the lack of trilateral cooperation among Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. He mentioned a recent case of a Pakistani exporter who attempted to cross the Afghan-Uzbek border with truckloads of Pakistani-grown tangerines. The Uzbek authorities initially refused to allow the tangerines to enter, citing lack of paperwork verifying the fruit was pest-free. Apparently, the fruit was allowed to cross after the Pakistani gave the Uzbek authorities an unspecified gift. ¶6. (C) Malik said around 100 Pakistanis live in Uzbekistan, TASHKENT 00000992 002 OF 002 but few travel home to bring back goods to sell. Most run their own small-medium size businesses, including stores and textile factories. According to a press report from the "Business Recorder", the GOU has offered a series of incentives to attract Pakistani textile-related businesses. These include subsidized electricity and cotton, and no export taxes. (Note: No official announcement has been made to this effect. End note.) Kamran said, during the visit, Pakistan offered a credit line of five million USD to the Uzbeks to purchase Pakistani-manufactured textile equipment. ¶7. (S) Malik and Kamran each noted that Uzbek-Pakistani relations have improved over the past year. Kamran said that when Musharraf visited last year, the Uzbeks did not seem to trust the Pakistanis. This year, according to Kamran, Karimov appeared more at ease with Musharraf. He attributed this change to intervention on the part of former Uzbek Ambassador to Pakistan and current Deputy FM Anvar Salikhbaev. (Note: Salikhbaev also served as Deputy Chief of the National Security Service. End note.) According to Kamran, during his time in Pakistan, Salikhbaev made overtures to the Pakistani secret service, greatly improving the relationship. ¶8. (C) During the visit, Pakistani officials also reportedly encouraged the Uzbeks to take a larger role in Afghan reconstruction efforts. Kamran, who participated in many of the meetings in Islamabad, believes the Uzbeks are genuinely concerned about Afghanistan's stability, and are much less optimistic than the Pakistanis. Nonetheless, despite public announcements from the GOU that reconstruction of Afghanistan is crucial, Kamran does not believe the Uzbeks are ready to play an active role in Afghanistan ¶9. (C) Pakistani businessmen, and even tourists, still have difficulty getting long-term, multiple entry visas. Malik said his Embassy has asked for visa liberalization, but is still waiting for the GOU to respond. During the visit, Pakistan raised the issue, but does not think, according to Kamran, that the Uzbeks will change the visa regime. ¶10. (C) Comment: Karimov's visit to Pakistan fits into his overall strategy to show that, despite problems with the U.S. and Europe, he has friends. This visit followed closely on the heels of his trip to Seoul and a visit from the Indian Prime Minister to Tashkent. Although numerous MoUs were signed, it seems that little concrete was actually decided during the visit. Re-establishing air links between Uzbekistan and Pakistan would be a significant move and would demonstrate whether the Uzbeks are indeed serious about improving relations. PURNELL