ESTONIA: PRESIDENT RUUTEL TO RUN FOR SECOND

UNCLAS TALLINN 000658 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV EN SUBJECT: ESTONIA: PRESIDENT RUUTEL TO RUN FOR SECOND TERM Ref: TALLINN 00427 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. As expected, President Ruutel announced on June 13 that he will seek a second term as President of Estonia. Ruutel's party, People's Union, is working hard to ensure the election is decided in the Electoral College, where Ruutel has stronger support. This has only added to the speculation and the difficulty for the other five parties who are striving to find a compromise candidate to avoid a second round run-off election. The question dominating the political horizon is who the Center Party will decide to support and what is the price for Center's votes, which will likely determine the eventual winner. End Summary. ¶2. (U) In March five parties (Center Party, Pro Patria Union, Res Publica, Reform, and the Social Democrats) agreed to find a mutually acceptable presidential candidate in order to elect the next president in Parliament and avoid a second round run-off in the Electoral College. (Sixty-eight votes are needed to have the president elected in the 101-seat Parliament.) The only party that refused to participate was the People's Union (PU),President Ruutel's party. Each party duly submitted a list of presidential candidates (reftel). The list was whittled down to seven and then to four: Euro MP Toomas Hendrik Ilves, Rector of Tartu University Jaak Aaviksoo, Parliament Vice-Speaker Ene Ergma and entrepreneur Jaan Manitski. All three of the Center Party's nominees have been eliminated, even though without Center's votes it appears highly unlikely any candidate can win the votes necessary for election in the parliament. ¶3. (SBU) On June 13, Ruutel declared his intention to seek a second term. The PU General Assembly convened on June 18 and 297 delegates unanimously endorsed Ruutel as their presidential candidate in the second round. (Comment. With only 13 PU seats in the Parliament, Ruutel has no chance to win in the first round. Consequently, PU has determined to focus its efforts in the second round, as Ruutel has more support in the Electoral College, which includes both parliamentarians and representatives of local governments. End Comment). Party Leader Villu Reiljan then dispatched a public letter to Center Party leader Edgar Savisaar proposing that the two parties cooperate to elect the President in the Electoral College. ¶4. (SBU) The Center Party has indicated that it will continue to participate in the effort to find a single presidential candidate, while also entering into negotiations with People's Union. While Savisaar continues to keep everyone guessing, one thing Center has made clear is its opposition to Ilves, who currently ranks ahead of the other candidates (including Ruutel) in popularity with the Estonian public. ¶5. (SBU) Comment. Particularly now that there are no Center Party nominees left among the candidates being discussed by the five parties, there has been increasing speculation in the media that Center intends to strike a deal with the People's Union. Under the terms of this (assumed) deal, the two parties would ensure the election goes to the Electoral College where they can join forces to elect Ruutel President. In exchange for Center's support, Ruutel would call on Savisaar to form the next government if -- as Center believes is likely -- his party wins the most votes in next spring's parliamentary elections. There is also speculation that Savisaar will ultimately back Ruutel because he hopes to move on from Prime Minister to President in five years, when Ruutel would be unable to run for a third term. Whether or not these rumors are true, it is clear that Savisaar is in the cat bird's seat right now, and he is in no hurry to tip his hand too far in advance of the first round of voting in the parliament on August 28. WOS