ESTONIA: POLITICAL CONSOLIDATION ON THE RIGHT

UNCLAS TALLINN 000322

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: POLITICAL CONSOLIDATION ON THE RIGHT


1. (U) Two right-wing Estonian political parties, Res
Publica (RP) and Pro Patria Union (PPU),have decided to
merge and form a new political party, Party For Estonia
(PFE). Tonis Lukas, PPU Chairman, and Taavi Veskimgi,
RP Chairman, signed a memorandum of understanding and
published a declaration explaining the merger's
objectives-- both to the members of both parties and to
the wider Estonian public -- on April 4. The merger is
set to take place contingent upon the decisions by both
RP and PPU's congresses in June. Both RP and PPU will
maintain separate leadership structures until the end of
a transition period, set for June 2007, at which time
the PFE will hold its first congress. The new party
expects to gather more than 8,500 members and will have
33 seats in the current parliament.


2. (U) The common declaration underscores RP and PPU?s
common European values (both belong to the European
People's Party): "The values that bind us are a forward-
looking orientation of the society, survival of the
nation and culture, broadening of people's freedoms and
opportunities, honest governance, caring and thrift."
The principle aim of the merger is to maintain the
country's success by uniting to "create a strong and
stable rightist conservative force" and a "green" way of
life.


3. (U) Other political parties expressed varying
opinions in connection with the birth of the PFE. MP
Rain Rosimannus from the Reform Party's Board said that
joining forces could make up for the weaknesses of the
two parties: Pro Patria's lack of strong leaders and
weak organization were RP's strengths. Rosimannus also
told the media that consolidation on the right could be
an "important as counterbalance to the Center Party's
long, highly successful activity to unify and integrate
leftist forces."


4. (SBU) Comment: Political observers have so far been
positive about the merger, saying it can only benefit
voters by trimming the number of parties. The press has
also speculated that the PFE may usher in a serious
challenge to the Reform Party, which considers itself
the flagbearer of the right. However, it is still quite
possible that both RP and PPU may lose members opposed
to the merger who defect to the Reform Party. RP's lack
of ideological cohesion -- it came into existence as a
protest party -- will not help. There has already been
some vocal criticism from RP's Russian-speaking members,
who are ill at ease with PPU's perceived nationalism.
And there is also some doubt whether the merger will
actually go through in the end. As the consolidation of
party organization is not set until after the next
parliamentary elections, either party could step back
from the deal.

WOS