ESTONIA OFFERS SUPPORT AND CAUTION FOR GEORGIA IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L TALLINN 000318 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2016 TAGS: NATO MARR PREL GG EN SUBJECT: ESTONIA OFFERS SUPPORT AND CAUTION FOR GEORGIA IN NATO'S INTENSIFIED DIALOGUE REF: STATE 51994 Classified By: A/DCM Stuart Dwyer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) On April 3 Poloff delivered reftel points to Jaan Hein, MFA Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, to seek GOE support for NATO to begin an "Intensified Dialogue (ID) on Membership Questions" with Georgia. The GOE is fully supportive of initiating ID with Georgia. Hein remarked that the talking points tracked almost word-for-word with MFA briefing points to its own diplomats. The GOG has made tremendous progress in the short time since the Rose Revolution and the GOG had earned a start to ID with NATO, he said. ¶2. (C) But even though the GOG has moved forward with reform, Hein thought far too many GOG officials were merely "counting the years" before they were automatically given NATO membership. As a recent NATO member Estonia has first hand experience on the challenges in achieving the standards required for NATO membership. Hein was not sure that the majority of GOG officials "got it." Throughout the GOG he commonly encountered the belief that the United States would guarantee NATO membership in the next two to three years. Hein said the "U.S. card" was often used by GOG officials in discussions with NATO members from the Baltics or Warsaw Pact countries. ¶3. (C) Hein said GOE officials will continue to tell GOG counterparts that, based on Estonia's experience, NATO criteria must be met before membership can be secured. The GOE will also continue to aid the GOG in reforming its public institutions. However, in Hein's opinion, Georgia is in real danger of repeating Romania's performance in the run up to the 1997 Madrid Summit, when the GOR had mistakenly convinced itself NATO membership was at hand. Hein said the GOE supported giving Georgia the "ID carrot" it had earned, but said it would be important for the U.S. and others to balance that with the "stick of no MAP" if Georgia doesn't deliver. WOS