ESTONIA: SCENESETTER FOR THE SECRETARY'S TRAVEL TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L TALLINN 001049 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2016 TAGS: PREL EN SUBJECT: ESTONIA: SCENESETTER FOR THE SECRETARY'S TRAVEL TO TALLINN NOV 27-28 REF: A. TALLINN 972 ¶B. TALLINN 845 ¶C. TALLINN 968 Classified By: Ambassador Aldona Z. Wos, MD for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Madam Secretary, I am extremely honored and pleased to welcome you to Tallinn as part of the President's historic visit on November 27-28 (Ref A). Estonia is a steadfast ally and partner with whom we share many common values. The timing of the visit is excellent - President Toomas Hendrik Ilves took office on October 9th and the Parliament will soon debate extension of Estonia's military mandate in Iraq. The visit will provide assurance that the United States values Estonia. It will also reinforce domestic political support for our agenda, including the Global War on Terror (GWOT) and transformational diplomacy, and invigorate a new generation of Estonians' interest in the United States. During the visit, I recommend that you take any opportunities that arise to: -- Convey the strong respect we have for Estonia as a committed ally and partner; -- Laud Estonia's strong commitment to fighting the Global War on Terror and thank Estonia for its deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan in support of U.S. and NATO objectives; -- Express hope that Estonia will extend its Iraq mandate for another year; -- Praise Estonia's support for new democracies in the region and encourage intensification of these efforts; and -- Encourage Estonia to take a more active role in voicing its support for strong transatlantic ties within the EU and international fora. ¶2. (C) Your Estonian interlocutors will want to discuss concerns over Russia's efforts to exert both political and economic influence over neighboring countries. They may ask for your support for a Baltic proposal to continue NATO air policing through 2018. Finally, they will likely repeat their case for implementing visa-free travel to the United States in the context of Estonia's contributions in the GWOT. FM Paet may reiterate his invitation for you to attend the Adriatic-Baltic-Atlantic Meeting in Tallinn February 5-6. If these issues are raised, I also recommend that you -- Encourage Estonia to take an active role in the EU on issues aside from Russia and to continue to develop a more practical dialogue with Russia; -- Urge Estonia to work actively to encourage other NATO members to sign up for Air Policing rotations; -- Stress ongoing U.S. commitment through the Visa Waiver Program (VWP) roadmap process to work together to help bring Estonia closer to meeting current VWP criteria; -- Regret not being able to attend the Adriatic-Baltic- Atlantic Meeting for which Foreign Minister Urmas Paet invited you. (Note: EUR plans to send a representative in your place. End Note.) End Summary. ¶3. (C) The visit will feature meetings with President Toomas Hendrick Ilves and Prime Minister Andrus Ansip. President Ilves, who was elected in late September, is very outspoken and sometimes perceived as haughty. He grew up in the United States and has placed a priority on invigorating Estonia's role in European structures, improving transatlantic relations and unifying EU policy towards Russia. Prime Minister Ansip is the dynamic leader of Estonia's three-party coalition government and a very strong supporter of U.S. foreign policy objectives and policies. Last fall, he was one of the first foreign heads of government to visit Iraq. At the lunch, you will be seated with Foreign Minister Urmas Paet who is also a staunch supporter of U.S. foreign policy and recently returned from a visit to Iraq (November 5-6) that the USG helped to arrange. I recommend you concentrate on the following themes in your discussions: Recognizing Estonia as a Staunch Ally -------------- ¶4. (C) I strongly recommend you express your deep appreciation for Estonia's active participation in the GWOT. Despite its small size, Estonia has taken on a disproportionally large role in foreign operations. Estonia currently has 280 military personnel deployed worldwide - close to ten percent of its deployable forces. In Iraq and Afghanistan, Estonia has suffered a total of 22 wounded and two killed in action. This is a high price for a country with only 1.35 million people (and 3,800 regular armed forces.) ¶5. (C) In Iraq, 34 Estonian soldiers are fighting side-by- side with American troops outside of Baghdad where they have participated in some of the toughest counter- insurgency missions. Estonian soldiers have repeatedly been praised by General George Casey, Multinational Force Commander, for their professionalism in the toughest of situations. Foreign Minister Paet has been vocal in his support to renew Estonia's presence in Iraq. However, public support for the Iraq mission is not strong and the visit will be key in highlighting the importance of Estonia's contributions to stability in Iraq. The government has drafted a bill to extend the mission, but Parliament will vote only after the UN extends its Iraq mandate. ¶6. (C) In Afghanistan, Estonian troops are embedded with a UK-led Provincial Reconstruction Team in Helmand Province. Helmand is the epicenter for opium production in Afghanistan and has seen an upsurge in Taliban activity. Estonia's mission in Afghanistan has a two-year mandate and the number of troops will rise from 80 to 120 by the end of this year. The MFA has recently dispatched a diplomat to Helmand to assess possible development and reconstruction projects for the Estonians to expand their contribution beyond military operations. Support for this mission among the political leadership and within Parliament is strong, and the government has identified the Afghanistan mission as its top foreign affairs priority. Transformational Democracy -------------- ¶7. (C) In just fifteen years, Estonia has made a remarkable transition from Soviet shackles to free-market democracy and from aid recipient to aid donor. In 1994, Estonia was the first country in Europe to introduce a flat tax system. Estonia's economic success has been remarkable. This year, GDP growth is 12% and Estonia has a budget surplus of 2.3% of GDP. This success gives Estonia undeniable credibility in promoting reform abroad. It has become a strong advocate for democracy and freedom in the region. Earlier this year, the GOE committed to spend $10 million per year through 2010 on priority partner countries including Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Afghanistan. President Ilves is planning a working visit to Georgia November 22-24. ¶8. (C) Immediately following the Prime Minister's meeting with President Bush, PM Ansip will introduce several Estonians who are leading the effort to promote democracy abroad, including Mart Laar, a former prime minister and current Member of Parliament. Laar is currently an advisor to Georgian Prime Minister Saakashvili on democratic and market reforms. As prime minister (1992- 94 and 1999-2000),he was instrumental in securing passage of key market reforms, including Estonia's flat tax and privatization of state assets. I encourage you to thank your interlocutors for their good work and strongly encourage them to seek out additional ways to intensify their efforts. A Reticent Advocate -------------- ¶9. (C) As is the case with many new EU members, Estonia has been reticent to press its interests in Brussels too forcefully or to criticize EU policies, except with respect to Russia. While Estonia often supports our position on key issues, it generally voices that support behind the scenes. Because Estonia's cadre of experts is small, when it does speak out it is generally only on issues which directly impact its national interests (i.e. Russia). Estonia needs to take an active role on issues aside from Russia to be seen as an objective partner within the EU. President Ilves has stated his desire for Estonia to become a "generator of ideas" in Europe and to increase the influence of new member countries on common EU policy. I recommend you encourage his efforts. Reaching out to the Next Generation -------------- ¶10. (U) Estonia has arrived at a point where its high school and university students can no longer remember what Estonia was like under Soviet occupation. The United States policy of non-recognition - to which older Estonians still attach great importance - is an abstract concept for young people here. The hardships of Soviet times are gone; Tallinn and Tartu are modern, bustling cities; and Estonian students can study and work in many other EU countries. We have seen a declining trend in the number of young Estonians seeking to study, work or travel in the United States and opt, instead, to do so in other EU countries. To counter that trend, I have engaged the entire Embassy in an aggressive public diplomacy campaign to reach out to young Estonians. I personally have visited more than 78 schools throughout Estonia and spoken to thousands of young people. These efforts are starting to bear fruit. In 2005, more Estonians traveled to the United States than in any previous year. The visit will lend great weight to our efforts. E-stonia -------------- ¶11. (C) Time Magazine recently called Estonia - "one of the most technologically advanced places on the planet." Estonians are proud of their reputation for high-tech innovation and e-democracy. People file their taxes on-line, internet banking is the norm, and Estonians can even pay for parking with their cell phones. In 2005, for the first time, citizens could cast ballots electronically. Prime Minister Ansip will give a lively presentation on Estonia's e-government initiative and paperless Cabinet meetings. Watch Out For -------------- ¶12. (C) Russia: Estonia's relations with Russia remain vulnerable to reactionary impulses on both sides (Ref B). For Estonians, history weighs heavily. In the 1940s, the Soviets deported tens of thousands of people in several waves of deportations; many of these people did not survive life in Siberia. There is scarcely a family in Estonia that was left untouched by these events. Russia's refusal to acknowledge the fact of Soviet occupation leaves a bitter taste. Key obstacles to truly "normal" relations include discord over an un-ratified border treaty and Russian accusations - unfounded, we believe - of Estonian mistreatment of its Russian-speaking minority. The Russian Duma recently criticized Estonia for considering a bill that could pave the way for the removal of a Soviet World War II monument located in central Tallinn. Estonia is also concerned about Russia's gas monopoly in the region and its ability to disrupt growing trade flows. However, large oil shale reserves, which supply about 95 percent of Estonia's electricity, make the country much less vulnerable to Russian manipulation of energy supplies. Estonia has been highly critical of Russia's tactics against Georgia and Ukraine. President Ilves, who will visit Georgia just prior to your trip here, has expressed his keen personal interest in this issue. Additionally, the Parliament passed a resolution on October 17 condemning Russia's mistreatment of Georgia and Prime Minister Ansip personally took President Putin to task over Moscow's behavior at an EU-Russia dinner on Oct 20 in Finland (Ref C). ¶13. (C) Air Policing (AP): AP remains one of the top military/security priorities for the GOE. It is the most visible benefit of NATO membership to the Estonian people. Due to repeated Russian incursions into Estonian airspace over the years, the government feels that the current situation is inadequate for Estonia's mid to long-term needs. The three Baltic countries plan to jointly present a formal request to NATO for the extension of AP until ¶2018. After this date, they plan to assume full responsibility to provide their own air defense. Despite lack of agreement on specifics, the Baltics are working together to review all options for doing this. In the mean time, the Estonians have made it clear that if NATO does not extend its AP program, the GOE would have to divert resources from other military operations. This could result in a reduction in Estonia's contribution to foreign missions. ¶14. (SBU) Visa Waiver: Foreign Minister Paet will likely urge you to commit to extend the Visa Waiver Program to Estonians. I firmly believe we should find a way to facilitate Estonia's entry into the Program. In a very short time, Estonia has come quite far toward meeting the requirements of the Program. However, although refusal rates have declined rapidly the last few years, they have not yet averaged under 3% for two consecutive fiscal years, as required. We are doing everything we can to simplify the application process, including instituting an on-line appointment system and minimizing applicant trips to the Embassy. This has helped improve perceptions considerably, but Estonians will not be satisfied until they are treated the same as "old" EU members. WOS