MEDIA REACTION: PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN'S NEW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 000097

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC
BARBORIAK
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN'S NEW
YEAR'S DAY SPEECH



1. Summary: Major Chinese-language Taiwan dailies shifted
their focus of coverage to President Chen Shui-bian's New
Year's Day address again January 11 following National
Security Council Secretary-General Chiou I-jen's press
conference Tuesday. At the press conference, Chiou refuted
a news story that ran Monday that said Chen submitted his
New Year's Day speech to the United States for review before
he delivered it and was asked to revise it three times. The
pro-independence "Liberty Times" reported Chiou as saying
that one thing Chen did not talk about in his New Year's Day
address was China attempts to solve the Taiwan issue [by the
use of force] by 2020. "Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest
daily, ran a banner headline on its front page that read:
"China Attempts to Resolve Taiwan [Issue] in 2020."

The pro-unification "United Daily News," on the other hand,
ran an exclusive interview with an unnamed senior Bush
administration official on its front page with the headline:
"Taiwan Guarantees to the United States That the Four No's
Pledge Remains Unchanged." The sub-headline added: "United
States Expresses Concern about [Chen's] New Year's Day
Address. U.S. Official Says During an Interview with This
Newspaper That `[Washington] Will Wait and See Taipei's
Action.' [Washington] Is Concerned about the Referendum on
a New Constitution and Proactive Management of Cross-Strait
Economics and Trade." The newspaper also carried the entire
contents of the interview with the U.S. official on its page
two and page thirteen, which were topped with two separate
headlines: "U.S. Official [on Bian's New Year's Day Address:
[Washington] Hopes Taiwan Is Predictable and Stable," and
"U.S. Official: [Washington] Hopes Taiwan Will Use [Its]
Action to Prove the Four No's Pledge."


2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "Liberty
Times" editorial strongly criticized KMT Chairman Ma Ying-
jeou for advocating reunification with China, and criticized
some DPP members for calling for "confident opening up" with
China. An editorial in the pro-independence "Taiwan Daily"
also lashed at the pro-China media outlets for using Chen's
New Year's Day address to sow DISCORD between Taiwan and the
United States. "United Daily News" Washington correspondent
Vincent Chang, however, directly questioned in a commentary
if Chen will acknowledge his `Four No's' pledge in light of
the unnamed senior U.S. official's remarks. Chang said
Chen's reaction and response "will directly affect
Washington's judgment of Chen's `sincerity,'" and "the
aftermath of such an impact will most likely reflect in the
meeting between President George W. Bush and Chinese
President Hu Jintao during the latter's visit to Washington
this coming spring." A news analysis in the centrist "China
Times" also pointed out directly that Chen wants to throw
the "hot potato" of cross-Strait impasse back to Washington.
A "China Times" editorial also strongly demanded that Chen
clarify two major issues relating to his plan to launch a
"referendum on a new constitution," saying that serious
national issues cannot simply be decided by Chen's New
Year's Day address alone. End summary.

A) "Who Are the People That Still Fail to Find Their Way?"

The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000]
editorialized (1/11):

"President Chen said in his recent New Year's Day speech
that he will adopt `proactive management, effective opening'
as a new theme for the new way of thinking and policy in
terms of cross-Strait trade. While everyone in the country
feels happy for Chen that he is able to step out of the mire
created by the previous `proactive opening' [policy], some
DPP members have cried out that `Taiwan must find a correct
position for itself,' making no attempt to conceal that they
are standing on the opposite side of President A-Bian. .

"The DPP is already full of self-contradictions as it talks
about Taiwan's westbound [policy] and economic integration
with China, [a country] which is aiming some 800 missiles at
Taiwan on the one hand, while advocating the writing of a
new constitution for the island, rectifying Taiwan's name
and `one country on each side of the Taiwan Strait.' The
party is basically illogical and will eventually lose
people's trust in the long term. The DPP, in fact, suffered
the consequences of its own actions when it was defeated in
the legislators' election [in 2004] and the 3-in-1 mayoral
and magistrate elections [in 2005]. We really doubt if
those who embrace the `westbound' policy and [call for]
`Taiwan's positioning' have learned a `correct' lesson from
the DPP's setbacks .

"`Wake up, Mr. President,' is a famous line said by a
political party chairman who advocates `re-unification'
[with China]. The President is wide-awake now and has
located Taiwan's correct position. It is those who continue
to be `intoxicated by the Chinese market,' including the
party chairman who asserts `reunification' [with China] and
the green supporters who brag about `[Taiwan's] confident
opening-up' and who plan to organize a `society on cross-
Strait politics and economics,' that remain dead-drunk."

B) "Pro-China Media Outlets Sow DISCORD between Taiwan and
the United States; Chiou I-jen's Immediate Clarification
Lays Bare the Untrue Rumors"

The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 10,000]
asserted (1/11):

". In terms of the call for a `referendum on a new
constitution,' the private sector [in Taiwan] has in reality
been pushing for `the movement for rectifying [Taiwan's]
name and writing a new constitution' for a long time . [We]
can say that the `referendum on a new constitution' is a
down-to-up and out-to-in action pushed by the private
sector; its success depends on the wisdom and perseverance
of the [Taiwan] people. The United States is a democratic
country which has undergone constitutional amendments many
times. Washington thus has no reason to oppose Taiwan's
constitutional re-engineering plan. The pan-Blue camp's
efforts in lobbying the U.S. State Department and Congress
and working in line with China's propaganda in the
international community [to deter Taiwan's constitutional
reform plan] may affect the U.S. position for a while. But
as long as we steady our footing, continue to strengthen
communication and explain [to Washington] our policy, we are
sure we can change Washington's views. ."

C) "The United States Puts the `Four No's' [Pledge] back
[into Taiwan's Hands] Again; Will [Chen Shui-] Bian
Acknowledge It?"

Washington correspondent Vincent Chang noted in the pro-
unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000]
(1/11):

"President Chen Shui-bian, in the wake of [the DPP's] severe
defeat in [last December's] mayoral and magistrate
elections, chose to re-embark on his journey by embracing
the deep-green fundamental tenets. One of his most
significant moves was the attempt to get rid of the `Five
No's' pledge, the self-restricted `Incantation of the Golden
Hoop' as regarded by the pro-independence activists, via his
New Year's Day address, whose entire text emphasizes nothing
but the Taiwan-centered values.

"However, since President Chen has been throwing out topics
such as `one country on each side of the Taiwan Strait' and
[the launching of] `a referendum on a new constitution' over
the past five years, which caused Washington to raise its
eyebrows, the `Five No's' (or `Four No's' in the eyes of the
United States) pledge has become the final framework the
United States wields to bring and lock Chen, who has been
wandering along the `red line' borders of Washington's cross-
Strait policy, back to his own pledge. The `Four No's'
pledge has become the unbearable heaviness of being for
Chen.

"National Security Council Secretary-General Chiou I-jen
admitted Tuesday that Taipei and Washington had communicated
`intensely' over the contents of [Chen's] New Year's Day
address. Chiou also mentioned that Washington did show
concerns about the contents [of the speech], especially the
two parts with regard to the `referendum on a new
constitution' and `cross-Strait economics and trade.' But
what Chiou failed to mention was that the United States was
also concerned about [Chen's] highlight of the Taiwan-
centered values in his speech and subtle details with regard
to [Chen's] interaction with KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou. .

"In addition, [Chen's] New Year's Day address has skillfully
dodged mentioning his `previous pledges,' including the
`Four No's,' and the Presidential Office used the statement
of `[Taiwan's] policy remains unchanged' afterwards to
vaguely sum up everything. .

"As for which policy remains unchanged? The Chen Shui-bian
administration gave pretty ambiguous clarification. The
question regarding whether the `Four No's' pledge concerned
by the United States will take this opportunity and `fade
out' henceforth has also become a focus of attention. .

"It is noteworthy that the [U.S.] official, [during his
interview with this correspondent,] regarded all the pledges
Chen has made previously, including the `Four No's' pledge,
as part of those `unchanged policies' that Taiwan has
guaranteed to Washington.

"With regard to questions about how Chen will respond and
react [to Washington], and whether or not he will
acknowledge the `Four No's' pledge that Washington has
insisted on putting back into his mouth will directly affect
Washington's judgment of Chen's `sincerity.' The aftermath
of such an impact will most likely reflect in the meeting
between President George W. Bush and Chinese President Hu
Jintao during the latter's visit to Washington this coming
spring."

D) "Bian Hardens [His Attitude], Throwing the Hot Potato
Back to the United States"

Journalist Lin Shu-ling said in a news analysis in the
centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation:
400,000] (1/11):

"No matter how strong the United States' concern about Chen
Shui-bian's New Year's Day address is, it is a fact that
Washington has doubts about Taiwan's future direction with
regard to cross-Strait relations. But one cannot rule out
the possibility that this is exactly one of the strategies
Chen would use to harden his attitude towards Beijing.

"Chen has lately made a drastic change with regard to his
dove-like cross-Strait policy over the past five years by
saying no to China directly, throwing out a bomb to the
international community. Why did he want to do that? What
was his policy-making pattern? All these questions aroused
people's curiosity. But many signs recently showed that the
thinking behind Chen's New Year's Day address seemed to have
resembled the trilogy of `conflicts, compromise, and
progress' that he constantly adopts. His first step was to
clarify whose responsibility it is for the stalemated cross-
Strait relations, bringing it to Washington's attention that
it is Beijing that has pushed Taiwan into a corner that the
island cannot even extend any of its goodwill. .

"Bian's attitude, on the one hand, was meant to show to the
pan-Green camp that he was not as inconsistent as [former
President] Lee Teng-hui claimed him to be, so that he could
secure [the support] of the green fundamentalists for him as
early as possible. On the other hand, Chen [is aware that]
only when he continues to harden [his attitude] can he make
the United States realize how serious the situation has
become. The pressure placed on Taipei [by Washington] can
thus be shifted to Beijing so that Chen can have a chance to
break away from his own predicament.

"Without doubt, the premise behind such a move by Chen was
the belief that Beijing will not rashly adopt any irrational
action at the current stage. Neither will Chen really step
over the red line; there is a legal threshold for the
`referendum on a new constitution' as a safety valve. As a
result, it is expected that Chen will continue hardening his
attitude in order to seek to create a favorable position for
himself before he gets any `answer' [from Washington]."

E) "The Ruling Party Should Clearly Clarify [Its Stand on]
the New Constitution and Rectification of Taiwan's Name"

The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation:
400,000] editorialized (1/11):

"President A-Bian announced in his New Year's Day address
that he will launch a referendum on a new constitution in

2007. He has set the timeline but failed to clarify two
major questions. One question is whether the referendum on
a new constitution will be processed in accordance with the
constitutional amendment procedures regulated by the
[government's] existing constitution or [the new
constitution] will be put under a referendum? The other
question is whether the title of the country referred to in
the new constitution that will be put under a referendum
will be the Republic of China or Taiwan?

"As a ROC president who is supposed to obey the ROC
Constitution, A-Bian should not have any options about
launching a new constitution because the [ROC] Constitution
does not allow the president to use ambiguous political
rhetoric such as `a referendum on a new constitution' to
cover up the major gap between writing a new constitution
and amending the constitution. As a state leader who is in
charge of Taiwan's safety as a whole, constitutional ethics
naturally does not allow A-Bian to keep it as a top secret
as to the island's national title, which is evidently
closely related to the cross-Strait relations and [our]
national security. For Taiwan, a country that honors [and
implements] democracy, matters of such grave importance must
not be decided simply by a speech of the president.
Wouldn't it be like what a totalitarian country will do if
serious issues such as writing a new constitution and
amending the constitution simply be decided by the president
alone? ."

PAAL