Loss in Chiayi Supplemental Legislative Election Shows

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000918

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON
DEPT FOR EAP/TC, INR/EAP

FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: Loss in Chiayi Supplemental Legislative Election Shows
Support Eroding for DPP

REF: A) 2006 TAIPEI 0490, B) 2006 TAIPEI 0567

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.


1. (SBU) Summary. In Chiayi City's March 11, 2006, supplemental
Legislative election (reftels A and B),the KMT candidate Chiang
Yi-hsiung won by 3,038 votes over DPP candidate Chen Li-chen. In
the December 2005, 3-in-1 election, Chen Li-chen had already lost
her re-election bid for mayor. This second loss for Chen in
consecutive elections in a deep green, anti-KMT, stronghold has lent
further credence to the belief that southern Taiwan's support for
the ruling Democratic Progress Party (DPP) is eroding. The effect
of the Chiayi loss on the upcoming Kaohsiung mayoral election has
DPP party officials worried. End summary.


2. (SBU) A contact in Chiayi told AIT/K that in this election, DPP
candidate Chen Li-chen's supporters did not want President Chen in
the local vicinity campaigning for Chen. On the other hand, the
Chiayi KMT headquarters called on the strength of KMT Chairman Ma
Ying-jeou, bringing him down for at least five campaign events. A
businessman in Tainan City told AIT/K that the election is a big
setback for DPP because the KMT candidate, although a very weak one
in terms of background and image, still won the race. These
phenomena fully indicated to this businessman that the DPP is
continuing to lose the battle for key swing votes in southern
Taiwan.


3. (U) The winning KMT candidate Chiang Yi-hsiung, who had lost
twice in his previous bids during 1993 and 1994 mayoral elections,
attributed his victory to KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou's charisma. Ma
Ying-jeou, on the other hand, cautioned supporters to remain humble
and not to be too ebullient over one win. Ma said although the Pan
Blue has secured its fragile majority in the Legislative Yuan (LY),
it will continue to play its role as a modest, rational and
responsible opposition. (Note: Pan Blue now has 113 of 221
legislators, and KMT is now tied with DPP at 88 as the two largest
parties. End Note.)


4. (U) DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun attributed the defeat to the
overall environment in Taiwan, the Electronic Toll Collector (ETC)
scandal and low voter turnout (only 42.5 percent). Yu rebutted
media analysis that indicated the National Unification Council (NUC)
was a major factor in the DPP defeat, arguing the issue has helped
boost the Pan Green's morale. Yu said that compared to Chiayi's
mayoral election in December last year, in which the DPP candidate
lost to the KMT candidate by 10 percent of the votes, the
discrepancy lessened to only 3.6 percent in this election. Yu said
that DPP will continue consolidating the party's strength at local
levels.


5. (SBU) After seeing the DPP lose this supplemental election in a
nearby district, DPP officials in Kaohsiung told AIT/K that the loss
to the KMT in the 3-in-1 election combined with this leaves them
feeling even greater pressure to win the upcoming December 2006
Kaohsiung mayoral election. While they strongly believe that
Kaohsiung remains solidly green turf, they noted that the bad
economy, the KRTC scandal and the losses in Chiayi, make them wonder
what it will take to pull the swing voters to the DPP side in
Kaohsiung. They are now, however, worried about the deep green
voters who, they claim, will hold their noses and vote DPP in any
case. These DPP officials said unequivocally that right now support
from former Premier Hsieh and Chen Chi-nan, although both have been
implicated in the KRTC scandal, are key to which DPP candidate will
run in the December Kaohsiung mayoral election.


6. (SBU) Comment. There is no question that green supporters in
southern Taiwan are still reeling from these losses in Chiayi and
the DPP scandals of 2005. For the second time this winter, the KMT
has managed to "cross the Chuoshui River," the highly emotional
dividing line between Green South and Blue North, giving substance
to Chairman Ma's pledge in December to lead the KMT south across the
Chuoshui. From any shade of green or blue, the Kaohsiung mayoral
election is lining up to provide excellent insight into what to
expect from southern Taiwan swing voters in Taiwan's 2008
presidential election. End comment.

THIELE

YOUNG



TAIPEI 00000918 002 OF 002



3