PRESIDENT CHEN AND THE DEEP GREEN: ALLIES OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000872

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2036
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT CHEN AND THE DEEP GREEN: ALLIES OF
CONVENIENCE


Classified By: AIT Acting Director David Keegan,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: The Deep Green pro-independence movement and
President Chen each see the other as helpful to achieving
their separate goals. Chen has gained much needed political
support in return for lending his own support to Deep Green
initiatives such as abolishing the National Unification
Council/Guidelines (NUC/NUG) and drafting a new Taiwan
constitution. This in turn has allowed him to redefine the
political agenda as independence versus unification, putting
the Kuomintang (KMT) and its Chairman Ma Ying-jeou on the
defensive. For the Deep Green, although Chen may not
accomplish very much beyond his decision that the NUC/NUG
will "cease to function (apply)," his rhetorical support
helps create a political atmosphere to push forward their
long-term Taiwan independence agenda. End Summary.


2. (C) Chen has turned to the Deep Green to rebuild the
political support base he lost after being blamed for his
party's defeat in local elections last December. That is the
only group he can still tap since moderate middle voters have
moved to the opposition camp because of ruling Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) scandals and poor government
performance. While Chen's appeal to the fundamentalist base
has increased his approval rating from about 15 to 25
percent, his rating may not rise much higher so long as he
espouses the Deep Green line, which is unpopular outside his
fundamentalist base. In addition to increasing his own
popularity, Chen's aggressive approach and ceaseless
criticisms of Chairman Ma have probably contributed to a
small reduction in public support for the KMT, evident in
recent polling.


3. (C) While Chen's rhetoric has taken on a Deep Green tone
since January, his goals for the next two years may still be
rather modest. For example, Chen has acknowledged that his
proposal for a "new Taiwan constitution" can mean either an
entirely new constitution, as advocated by independence
fundamentalists, or revisions to the current constitution.
However, Chen's officials are under instructions to avoid use
of the term "constitutional revision," which could anger the
Deep Green base, and are instead referring to "constitutional
reengineering," Lo Chih-cheng, executive director of a
DPP-oriented think tank, explained to AIT. Chen can claim
victory if he is able to achieve any constitutional revisions
and even if he does not succeed, he can cite his bringing the
issue to the table as significant.


4. (C) Examination Yuan President Yao Chia-wen recently told
AIT that he sees significant differences between the Deep
Green movement and Chen, contrasting the Deep Green's desire
to expand public support for independence with Chen's quest
for short-term political gain. Yao confided that
Hand-in-Hand Alliance Acting Convener Huang Chao-tang, a
leading figure in the Taiwan independence movement, was "very
angry" when Chen announced his decision on NUC/NUG on
February 27 because he had asked Chen to hold off until after
September so that the Deep Green movement in Taiwan and
worldwide could have time to mobilize public support for
Chen's plan. Chen jumped the gun, Yao suggested, because the
president wanted to help himself politically, was impatient,
and was anxious to counter Kuomintang Chairman Ma Ying-jeou
over Ma's statement that unification is the ultimate goal.


5. (C) Yao also stressed that Deep Green ideas for what most
needs to be changed in the current constitution are quite
different from those of President Chen. While Chen has
proposed to add more provisions on human rights, Yao argued
that human rights are already adequately covered in the
constitution and there is no need for constitutional change
in this area. Work on human rights should focus on
legislation and implementation of law, not constitutional
change, he maintained.


6. (C) Rather, Yao argued that constitutional change should
focus on bringing the constitution into line with the
decision that the NUG has ceased to apply. Specifically, Yao

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said, he plans to press for removal of the phrase "prior to
reunification," which was added to make certain previous
constitutional revisions applicable to the situation in
Taiwan. Now, however, this reference to reunification is
inconsistent with the NUG's "ceasing to apply," Yao argued.
Yao said he would also like to change the constitutional term
"original territory (guyou lingtu)" to "existing territory
(xianyou lingtu)," but acknowledged this is less important.


7. (C) Yao noted that the Deep Green "Hand in Hand Alliance"
has two main programs: laying groundwork for an entirely new
constitution and changing names. "Name change" mostly means
removing "China" from the names of Taiwan entities, Yao said,
adding that name changes are increasingly important to
eliminate confusion with PRC organizations. Yao said his
current priorities are China Airlines and the China Petroleum
Corporation (CPC),adding that his suggestion for CPC is
"Central Petroleum Corporation," but that he has not yet come
up with a suitable alternative name for China Airlines.


8. (C) Some Deep Green initiatives are currently impractical
for political reasons, Yao acknowledged, and may take two or
even twenty years to realize. However, he pointed out, by
mobilizing its public, the Deep Green has scored an
impressive series of victories over the years, for example,
placing the name "Taiwan" on the cover of the "ROC" passport.
President Chen resisted this proposal for almost two years
because the Foreign Ministry feared that other countries,
including the U.S., Japan, and the PRC, might not accept the
new passport, Yao noted. Under pressure and facing Deep
Green plans for a large demonstration, the Foreign Ministry
and Chen yielded. In the event, Yao said, the only country
that even temporarily objected to the new passport was
Ukraine. Despite earlier criticism, even the PRC accepted
the new passport.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Chen shares Deep Green objectives and has helped the
independence movement by recently suggesting, for example,
that it is appropriate to include sensitive sovereignty
issues in constitutional reform proposals. However, Chen has
also been careful to point out the political realities that
make sovereignty changes seemingly impossible now. In this
way, he can gain credit with the Deep Green, further develop
independence as an election issue to use against the KMT, and
at the same time avoid being overly provocative to Washington
or Beijing. Chen may also hope that his Deep Green stance
will allow him to follow in the footsteps of Lee Teng-hui and
remain an influential pan-Green leader after leaving office
in 2008. In contrast to Chen, a clever politician who leaves
himself room to maneuver, Deep Green leaders are idealists,
pursuing a long-term strategy aimed at fundamentally changing
the way Taiwan people think and building pressure for Taiwan
independence from the bottom up. They hope the ongoing shift
toward a Taiwan identity, distinct from China, will lead to
the eventual success of the independence movement.



KEEGAN