MEDIA REACTION: PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN'S NEW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000081

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC
BARBORIAK
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN'S NEW
YEAR'S DAY SPEECH


1. Summary: The top front-page story for almost all Chinese-
language Taiwan dailies January 10 was the sudden corporate
resignations and Prosecutors Office indictment of two top
United Microelectronics Corp (UMC) executives Monday
resulting from alleged illegal investments in China.
Another news story, but not running on front pages, was
President Chen Shui-bian's warning about the potential risk
for Taiwan posed by overly concentrating Taiwan investment
into China, and his reiteration of the necessity of his
"proactive management, effective opening" policy. Newspaper
coverage also focused on PFP Chairman James Soong's
intention to run in the year-end Taipei mayoral election.

The pro-unification "United Daily News" ran an exclusive
news story on its page four that was topped with the
headline: "The United States Returned [President Chen's] New
Year's Day Address Draft Three Times? Presidential Office:
[the Address] Was Delivered After Communication with the
United States." The sub-headline added: "The Presidential
Office Says [the Speech] Was Not Completed All at Once. The
United States Once Had Doubts about [Chen's Proposed]
Referendum on a New Constitution. [Taiwan's] First-ever
National Security Report Has Been Delayed [Because] the
United States Reportedly Has Concerns about `Attack
Behavior' [in the Report]."


2. Several newspaper editorials focused on China's offer to
send two pandas to Taiwan as a gift, while others continued
to discuss President Chen's New Year's Day speech. Hsiang
Chun, a research fellow at the ROC Society for Strategic
Studies, analyzed the Chen Shui-bian administration's
manipulation of the cross-Strait situation following the
2004 presidential elections with the direct conclusion that
Chen's New Year's Day speech is so destructive that it has
made TECRO Chief David Lee's communications with Washington
a "mission impossible." An editorial in the limited-
circulation, conservative, pro-unification, English-language
"China Post" criticized Chen's New Year's Day speech for
disappointing Taiwan's business community while also
angering both Beijing and Washington. An editorial in the
limited-circulation, pro-independence, English-language
"Taipei Times," however, supported Chen's new cross-Strait
economic policy (as advocated in his New Year's Day speech)
and urged Chen to stick to it unbendingly. End summary.

A) "Why the United States Makes a Representation Against A-
Bian's New Year's Day Address"

Hsiang Chun, a research fellow at the ROC Society for
Strategic Studies, said in an opinion piece in the mass-
circulated "Apple Daily" (1/10):

". Following the March 20 [presidential] elections in 2004,
the Chen Shui-bian administration's manipulative approach
toward the cross-Strait situation were obviously done for
his party's selfish interests only: On the one hand, Chen
told [the Taiwan people] in a loud voice `not to worry
[about cross-Strait tension],' but on the other hand, he had
[Vice President] Annette Lu refer to cross-Strait [ties] as
a `quasi-war state.' Likewise, Chen behaved in a way
suggesting he was doing what Washington had requested that
he do - namely, getting ready to resume dialogue with
Beijing -- while in the meantime, he ordered [then Premier]
Yu Shyi-kun to stand out front and publicly incite the
United States to `fight against' mainland China. [Taipei]
also provoked Beijing by saying `If you attack Taipei and
Kaohsiung, I will attack Shanghai.' . From the fact that
the local TV network, TVBS, was oppressed [by the Government
Information Office] to President Chen's talking about
[launching] `a referendum on [Taiwan's] new Constitution' in
his New Year's Day address, all [facts] prove that Taiwan
ought to be classified as `a nation that is not yet
completely democratized.' No wonder that [Beijing's]
`People's Liberation Army Daily' emphasized again in a
recent editorial that `[Beijing] should stick to [the
objective of] preparing for military conflict [with Taiwan];
the preparation for military conflict is the top, most
practical and most urgent strategic task for the People's
Liberation Army.' In light of this, one finds it not too
difficult to understand why the destructive power of A-
Bian's New Year Day's address has almost made [the job of
TECRO Chief] David Lee a `mission impossible.'"

B) "U.S. to Rebuke Chen Again"

The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China
Post" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized (1/10):

"Recent messages from Washington suggest that President Chen
Shui-bian is raising eyebrows there on the watch list again.
In his New Year's Day speech, the president revived his pro-
independence agenda - to write a new Taiwan Constitution
this year, put it for referendum the next and full
implementation in 2008 when he term ends. He also called
for tighter control over Taiwan's investments in the
mainland.

"Before this, he had said the agenda was `wishful thinking';
he couldn't do it, even his predecessor couldn't do it. The
about face has angered not just Taiwan's business community,
who want closer economic ties with the mainland, but Beijing
and Washington; both dread changes in Taiwan's status quo. .

"But while the U.S. suspects Chen is playing the same old
China-bashing game for domestic consumption, it will exert
pressure behind the scenes to rein in his pro-sovereignty
fervor, if only to placate Beijing. Chen approval rating
has plunged to 12 percent. Can he withstand a U.S. rebuke?"

C) "Chen Is His Own Worst Enemy"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times"
[circulation: 20,000] noted in an editorial (1/10):

"In the wake of President Chen Shui-bian's New Year's day
speech, there has been much talk about his new cross-strait
economic policy of `active management, effective opening.'
The speech suggests that a Cabinet reshuffle will follow the
Lunar New Year, as has almost become traditional. .

"Based on past performance, Chen's new determination to
better manage cross-strait economic ties prompts mixed
feelings. Chen will hopefully become a fearless and
charismatic leader who is undaunted by setbacks and unafraid
to admit mistakes, rather than a politician who only pursues
short-term advantage and bows to pressure from financial
groups and trade associations. Such short-sighted behavior
is exactly what has made DPP supporters lose faith in his
promises.

"Chen and his party must admit that the DPP has lost the
ideals it once had as a local party under Chen's leadership.
As a result of Chen's weakness, the public has also begun to
let down their guard toward China's `united front'
strategies and military ambitions, with some even espousing
an absurd desire to unify with China. What Taiwan needs is
a determination to press on with reform and a more
consistent implementation of policy. In this effort, Chen
has no greater enemy than himself."

PAAL