KMT TRIES MIXED TACTICS TO INCREASE PRESSURE ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000773

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2016
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT TRIES MIXED TACTICS TO INCREASE PRESSURE ON
CHEN


Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan,
Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: Kuomintang (KMT) legislators intend to
move forward with a recall motion against President Chen.
KMT legislators told AIT that the recall will protest Chen
putting his own selfish political interests ahead of the
Taiwan people's desire for cross-Strait stability and
economic development, endangering Taiwan's relations with the
U.S. and China. They urged the U.S. to press Chen to admit
the continued existence of the National Unification Council
and National Unification Guidelines (NUC/NUG),saying they
were unable to do so on their own. They warned that
otherwise anti-American sentiment might rise. End Summary.


2. (C) The KMT has secured the support of one-fourth (55) of
the Legislative Yuan and will go forward with its recall
motion against President Chen. On March 7, AIT met with KMT
Central Policy Committee Director and Legislator Tseng
Yung-chuan, and three of the legislators leading the KMT
recall movement against President Chen: KMT Legislative Yuan
(LY) caucus whip Tina Pan (Wei-kang),Joanna Lei, and Yang
Chiung-ying. Pan conceded the recall motion has little
chance of passing, but insisted the KMT must pursue the
recall to voice its anger at Chen for breaking his "five
noes" promise and jeopardizing cross-Strait stability. Pan
said the KMT also wanted to punish Chen for putting his
selfish political interests ahead of the Taiwan people's
desire for continued cross-Strait peace and improved economic
conditions. KMT legislator Lei told AIT that Taiwan's
existing governmental system enables President Chen to
unilaterally change the course of Taiwan's future, and that
aside from recall or impeachment motions, there is little the
LY or other branches of government can do to restrain him.
(Comment: Lei's remarks are dramatic but ignore the Taiwan
government's system of checks and balances that almost all
analysts, Blue and Green, insist make such constitutional
steps toward independence impossible. End comment.)


3. (C) The KMT legislators asserted that President Chen has
used clever wordplay to "fool" the U.S., succeeding in his
effort to "abolish" the NUC and the NUG and to change the
status quo. Tseng and Pan also claimed that most KMT
legislators (and the majority of the Taiwanese public)
suspect the U.S. has accepted Chen's decision to scrap the
NUC/NUG to facilitate the passage of the U.S.-sponsored arms
procurement package. (Comment: The KMT logic escapes us,
since the Chen Administration has always supported this
package and since the opposition pan-Blue holds a majority
of LY seats. End Comment.) According to Pan, most KMT LY
members would be willing to defy Chairman Ma Ying-jeou and
suspend further discussion of the arms procurement issue in
order to express their displeasure. Pan warned that
anti-American sentiment could grow among the KMT and its
supporters if the U.S. does not act decisively to counter the
public perception that it approved of Chen's NUC/NUG decision.


4. (C) Tseng, who said he had discussed the NUC/NUG issue
with PRC Taiwan Affairs Office Director Chen Yunlin two weeks
ago, told AIT that he found Beijing "very dissatisfied" with
Washington's inability to get Chen to change course. The
majority of KMT legislators, Tseng continued, feel the U.S.
has not done enough to dissuade Chen from "abolishing" the
NUC/NUG, and he urged the U.S. to demand that Chen state
clearly "whether the NUC and NUC continue to exist." Tseng
argued that U.S. "acquiescence" has encouraged Chen, whose
next step will be to use the referendum process to push for a
new constitution -- an outcome the KMT believes is certain to
further antagonize the PRC. Pan said, "The U.S. must decide
whether to side with President Chen, who favors independence,
or the majority of the Taiwan people, who favor the status
quo and peace."

Comment
--------------


5. (C) The KMT LY caucus has long been the focal point for
the party's emotional reactions against President Chen and
the DPP, and these reactions have escalated following Chen's
recent announcement of his decision on the NUC's "ceasing to

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function" and the NUG's "ceasing to apply." The KMT is
frustrated that it cannot turn the tables on Chen, and is
trying to shift blame to the U.S. Some extremist KMT
legislators seem willing to try anything -- raising specters
of anti-American sentiment and dashing hopes for improving
Taiwan's self-defense capability -- in hopes the U.S. will
take a tougher line that would give the KMT the upper hand
politically against Chen. More moderate LY members and KMT
Chairman Ma Ying-jeou are clearly less enthusiastic on this
issue. Though for the moment siding with the KMT recall
movement, Ma has also called for political calm, a focus on
pressing economic issues and cross-Strait stability, and an
end to the year-and-a-half-long deadlock on defense
procurement. Ma will want to show progress, perhaps
especially on defense procurement, before his five-day visit
to the U.S. beginning March 19.
KEEGAN