KMT USES NUC ISSUE TO ATTACK CHEN, PFP USES IT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 000708

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT USES NUC ISSUE TO ATTACK CHEN, PFP USES IT TO
SURVIVE


Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason(s):
1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: Kuomintang (KMT) Chairman Ma Ying-jeou and
People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong apparently
recognize that President Chen did not actually alter the
status quo by declaring the National Unification Council and
National Unification Guidelines (NUC/NUG) no longer
functioning and applicable. Still, the KMT is using the
issue to attack Chen for putting his political survival
before the political will and economic welfare of the Taiwan
people. Soong, is using even harsher criticism of Chen to
paint the PFP as "bluer" than the KMT in order to survive.
End Summary.


2. (C) PFP legislator Liu Yi-ru told AIT that most KMT and
PFP leaders would say privately that the status quo remains
unchanged despite President Chen's decision to "cease to use"
the National Unification Council and "cease to apply" the
National Unification Guidelines. However, Liu added, this
view has not prevented the KMT and PFP from trying to use the
NUC/NUG issue to their advantage. Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, who
initially did not support the recall movement against Chen,
reversed himself following Chen's February 27 NUC/NUG
announcement, arguing that the KMT has a "duty" to punish
Chen for putting his own political survival before the will
of the Taiwan people, who polls show want stability and
economic development above all else. Liu suggested that in
shifting to support the recall, Ma is seeking to deflect
criticism from within the KMT that his initial responses to
Chen's NUC proposal were too weak. Liu speculated that Ma
may also be trying to upstage KMT LY President Wang Jin-pyng,
who has had differences with Ma and has publicly stated that
a Chen recall is unnecessary.


3. (C) From the beginning, and in contrast to Ma's more
measured tones, PFP Chairman Soong has supported Chen's
recall, and has, according to Liu, also privately backed the
idea of going forward with a more drastic move to impeach
Chen. Liu said Soong took these positions not to influence
Ma or the KMT, Liu explained, but to distinguish the PFP from
its larger and stronger brother, noting that if there is no
meaningful distinction between the two parties, it becomes
that much easier for the KMT to marginalize the PFP. In
order to avoid this outcome, Soong and other PFP leaders take
advantage of rare opportunities, like the NUC controversy, to
carve out their own niche. As much as Soong might want to
believe otherwise, Liu argued, Ma's belated decision to
support the recall had nothing to do with a perceived need by
Ma to defend his right flank from Soong.


4. (C) Liu and one of Soong's close advisors, Liao
Wen-chang, told AIT that the KMT remains the PFP's
ideological ally, but the PFP is increasingly forced to view
the KMT as an enemy in the competition for power. Liu and
Liao both said that the KMT has already lured the PFP's best
LY candidates away, and, with the exception of a nomination
mechanism for the Taipei City Council elections, the KMT has
been unwilling to discuss making room for PFP candidates,
either in the Taipei Mayoral election or the 2007 LY
elections. Liao predicted that if Soong decides to sit out
the Taipei Mayoral race, or runs and loses, the dissolution
of the PFP will not be far behind.
KEEGAN