PFP SAYS DON'T CALL US PAN-BLUE ANYMORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000592

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: PFP SAYS DON'T CALL US PAN-BLUE ANYMORE


Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason(s):
1.4 (B/D).


1. (U) Summary: The People First Party (PFP) is
threatening to withdraw from the Legislative Yuan's (LY)
majority Pan-Blue coalition if the Kuomintang (KMT) refuses
to share political power or give greater respect to the PFP
and its Chairman, James Soong. Eight prominent PFP
legislators, one-fourth of the party's LY representation, has
already defected to the KMT. PFP leaders privately (and we
gather accurately) allege the KMT is inciting these
defections to accelerate the PFP's demise. Soong and the PFP
have a couple of trump cards with which to embarrass the KMT
and its Chairman Ma Ying-jeou: it could block any compromise
on arms procurement or team up with the Pan-Greens to AIR the
KMT's "ill-gotten assets" dirty laundry before the entire LY.
End Summary.


2. (C) Outgoing PFP LY caucus director Daniel Hwang
(Yih-jiao) told AIT on February 23 that PFP Chairman Soong
will soon choose four PFP members to occupy the party's four
seats in the LY Procedural Committee, the committee that
decides which bills will be put on the agenda for
consideration by the entire LY. Hwang said that until
recently, the new caucus director had been empowered to
choose PFP Procedural Committee members, but Chairman Soong,
in light of the party's dwindling strength decided this time
to select the members himself to "strengthen the ties between
the party caucus and the PFP leadership." (Note: Due to
recent defections to the KMT, the PFP now holds only 24
seats, down from 34 elected in December 2004. End note.)
Hwang said seven PFP legislators are vying for the party's
four Procedural Committee seats, including Chang Hsien-yao,
Lu Hsueh-chang, Lin Hui-kuan, Lee Hung-chun, Liu Wen-hsiung,
and Hwang himself.


3. (C) According to Hwang, three of the Procedural Committee
candidates -- Chang Hsien-yao, Lee Hung-chun, and Liu
Wen-hsiung -- are among the PFP's most vocal KMT critics.
Hwang told AIT that during the last LY session when he was
caucus leader, Lee and Liu came to him several times, urging
that the PFP break from the KMT in the Procedural Committee,
and vote in favor of a DPP-sponsored bill to investigate the
KMT's alleged "ill-gotten assets." Hwang said Lee is angry
at the KMT for trying to weaken the PFP by luring its LY
members away, and for its unwillingness to make room in
future LY elections for PFP candidates. Hwang was careful to
assert that the alleged campaign to weaken the PFP is
probably being waged by KMT leaders without KMT Chairman Ma's
knowledge or involvement. (Comment: We find this a little
improbable since Ma has been instituting a a much more
centralized power structure in the KMT and since some of the
most prominent KMT recruiters of PFP defectors are Ma's
closest friends and allies. End Comment.)


4. (C) On February 22, Lee Hung-chun announced to the Taiwan
press that the PFP was its own party, and should no longer be
lumped together with the KMT under the "Pan-Blue" banner.
PFP Chairman Soong also publicly stated that cooperation
between the KMT and PFP would not be "inevitable" this LY
session, that margins in the PC were close, and that the PFP
would use its four seats on the Procedural Committee to play
a "key role." Hwang surmised that a disgruntled James Soong
might choose hard-line anti-KMT legislators Lee and Liu, and
perhaps Chang, to occupy the PFP's seats on the Procedural
Committee.


5. (C) Pan-Blue control of the 36-member LY Procedural
Committee is tenuous: the Pan-Blues hold 18 seats to the
Pan-Green's 17. The non-partisan Solidarity Union, composed
of independent legislators, holds one seat. Just one
Pan-Blue defector would throw the balance to the Pan-Greens.
The KMT has in the past been able to rely on PFP cooperation
in the Procedural Committee to block legislation, including
the Defense Procurement Special Budget, and to defeat
potentially embarrassing legislation, particularly various
DPP-sponsored bills seeking investigation and/or forced
divestiture of the KMT's alleged "ill-gotten assets." If the
KMT continues to ignore PFP power-sharing demands, or
disregards the PFP's desired limits on prospective arms
purchases, said Hwang, the PFP could retaliate by letting a

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DPP "illicit assets" bill go to the LY floor.


6. (C) Comment: Over the past three months, PFP Chairman
Soong has watched his party's power base in the LY decline by
one-fourth. The Procedural Committee remains the most
important battleground in the LY -- where the arms
procurement budget issue and the "illicit assets" bills
remain trapped. An "ill-gotten assets" bill stands little
chance of passing the Blue-dominated LY, but an airing by the
full LY of such a bill would give the DPP a bully pulpit from
which to crow about KMT corruption, doing considerable harm
to recent efforts by KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou to clean up
the KMT's image. Unable to stop the exodus from the PFP, and
with precious few levers on the KMT or its increasingly
popular chairman, Soong is forced to resort to extreme
measures to keep the PFP alive and relevant. End Comment.
KEEGAN