CHEN MOVES TOWARD DECISION ON UNIFICATION

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000469

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2031
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: CHEN MOVES TOWARD DECISION ON UNIFICATION
GUIDELINES

Classified By: AIT Acting Director David Keegan,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (S) Summary: President Chen Shui-bian is moving toward
a final decision on the National Unification Council (NUC)
and Guidelines in time for the March 14 anniversary of
China,s Anti-Secession Law. The National Security Council
(NSC) may try to float the argument that the NUC and
Guidelines were policies of the former KMT administration
with no basis in law and therefore no standing with the Chen
government. By all accounts, Chen's January 29 statement
came as a complete surprise to most -- if not all -- of
Chen's advisors, including Premier Su Tseng-chang, to whom
Chen subsequently explained that he had raised the NUC in
response to KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou's statement to Newsweek
that the KMT,s ultimate goal is unification. End Summary.


2. (S) National Security Council (NSC) Senior Advisor Chen
Chung-shin told AIT February 13 that President Chen had first
asked the NSC to look into possible action on the National
Unification Council (NUC) and National Unification Guidelines
(NUG) after the DPP defeat in local elections on December 3.
Because of this tasking, Chen Chung-shin said, President
Chen,s January 29 announcement that it is time to seriously
consider abolishing the NUC and NUG did not come as a
complete surprise to the NSC, though Chen Chung-shin
apparently did not have any advance information that
President Chen would raise the issue publicly on January 29.


3. (S) Chen Chung-shin attributed President Chen,s raising
the NUC/NUG issue to pressure from deep-Green independence
fundamentalists, including Lee Teng-hui. He also cited KMT
Chairman Ma Ying-jeou,s statement that the KMT,s ultimate
goal is unification as a reason for President Chen,s public
statement. The NSC plans to complete its analysis of NUC and
NUG (including domestic, PRC, and international reaction) and
make a recommendation to the president by the end of February
for a final decision. Chen Chung-hsin told AIT that the
timing of a decision is being driven by the first anniversary
of the PRC Anti-Secession Law (March 14).


4. (S) Chen Chung-shin noted that while the U.S. refers to
the &five no,s,8 Taiwan draws a distinction between the
&four no,s,8 which remain as categorical statements about
certain actions Chen will not take, and Chen,s apparently
less categorical statement in 2000 that "ther is no question
of abolishing the NUG and the NUC.8 President Lee
established the NUC on the basis of a KMT central committee
resolution, Chen explained, and Premier Hau merely reported
the NUG to the Executive Yuan without seeking EY views. In
addition, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),then in
opposition, did not support the NUC and NUG. The NSC is now
working to develop a legal argument that the NUC and NUG, as
policies of the previous administration with no basis in law,
do not apply to the current DPP government. Chen said there
are different views circulating in the NSC, and one idea he
is exploring is that President Chen might make a statement
about what the current policy is in order to differentiate it
from the previous KMT policy. It is not clear whether such a
statement would refer specifically to the NUC and NUG.


5. (S) Chen Chung-shin suggested that dealing with the
NUC/NUG issue will appease the deep-Green fundamentalists and
reduce calls for more extreme measures. He noted that some
are also calling for elimination of the phrase &before
unification8 from the regulations governing cross-Strait
interactions, adding that he has expressed opposition to this
proposal. Such a revision would require action by the
Legislative Yuan, where the opposition pan-Blue has a
majority, he explained. Even if enough support could be
found to eliminate the phrase from the regulations, there is
a similar phrase in the constitution, the elimination of
which would require an impossible three-fourths super
majority in the LY as well as a referendum.


6. (S) President Chen,s statement regarding the NUC and NUG
on January 29 came as a complete surprise to Premier Su
Tseng-chang, his Chief of Staff Wu Hsiang-jung told AIT.

SIPDIS
President Chen subsequently told Su that he was raising the
issue because KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou had referred to the
NUG when he recently talked about unification being the
ultimate goal of the KMT. (Note: KMT LY President Wang
Jin-pyng reported to Taiwan media that President Chen had
told him that the reason for raising the issue of abolishing
the NUC and NUG was that Ma Ying-jeou had said that
unification is the nation,s ultimate goal. End Note.) Wu
noted that Su has maintained distance from the president by
not commenting on Chen,s proposal.


7. (S) President Chen made his January 29 statement about
the NUC and NUG as a result of listening to deep-Green
independence fundamentalists, Wu suggested. In follow-up
statements, President Chen has continued to lay the basis for
abolishing the NUC and NUG, Wu observed, He predicted that
Chen will continue down this course because Chen wants to
show some accomplishment for his presidency.


8. (S) The fate of the National Unification Council and
Guidelines is one issue on which deep-Green ideology and
Chen's domestic political maneuvering lead to a single
conclusion. Chen is trying to persuade his followers that it
is both ideologically attractive and politically advantageous
to cut down one more symbol of Taiwan's possibly re-unifying
with China.

KEEGAN