Kaohsiung Mayoral Race: Acting Mayor and Mayoral

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003960 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL TW SUBJECT: Kaohsiung Mayoral Race: Acting Mayor and Mayoral Candidates Assess Election Prospects Ref: 2006 Taipei 3674 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Chen Chu and Kuomintang Party (KMT) candidate Huang Chun-ying told DDIR separately on November 21 that the critical Kaohsiung mayoral race remains too close to call and the final outcome could hinge on just 5,000 votes. Chen was concerned that Lo Chih-ming, the other Green candidate representing the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU),could siphon off enough deep Green votes to allow Huang to squeeze out a victory. Corruption scandals plaguing the DPP administration have dampened the enthusiasm of Green supporters, but in a race this close, last minute developments that energize either party's base or affect centrist voter turnout could tip the election in either direction. End Summary. A Neck and Neck Race -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In separate meetings with AIT Deputy Director Wang on November 21, KMT candidate Huang Chun-ying and DPP candidate Chen Chu were in agreement that the election is closer than anyone could have imagined at the outset of the race. Both suggested that the margin of victory could be as close as 5,000 votes. Chen contended that she beats Huang on personal charisma and administrative ability, characterizing herself as a decisive, tough, and clean leader. DPP Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan, however, told the DDIR that both candidates are good people and there is little difference in their campaign platforms. According to Yeh, Chen is not opposed to opening up cross-strait economic exchanges, which Huang has highlighted as the key to improving Kaohsiung's economy. In fact, Yeh said, no politician is oblivious to the need for the "three links" or the fact that Taiwan has heavily invested in China. However, Taiwan politicians cannot simply relinquish the issue of sovereignty in order to negotiate with China, Yeh added. Tensions Between Pan-Green Candidates -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Chen Chu observed that TSU candidate Lo Chih-ming may play a pivotal role in the election by splitting the Green vote. As few as 20,000 votes cast for Lo could cost her the election and hand Huang a victory, Chen lamented. The deep tension between Chen and Lo came to the fore during a televised debate on November 29 when, at one point, Chen asked Lo if he would support her given his own low support ratings. Lo retorted that Chen's request was undemocratic since he could not abandon his party or supporters merely to help the DPP win the election. Voters, he said, have a right to make their own choice among all candidates. Corruption Issue Affects the Kaohsiung Campaign -------------- -- ¶4. (SBU) Chen Chu acknowledged that corruption scandals plaguing the Presidential Office and the DPP's poor performance over the last six years have negatively affected her chances in the mayoral race. Huang charged the DPP is attempting to mitigate the corruption issue by comparing KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou's recent troubles regarding the use of a special mayoral allowance with the case against President Chen. Such a comparison is "ridiculous," Huang maintained. Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan, however, argued that the two cases are similar and the irregularities proved that there are systemic problems in the use of administrative special accounts that need to be addressed. Yeh also suggested that disunity within the DPP, highlighted by the recent resignation of two prominent DPP legislators from Chen Chu's faction, has hurt Chen. Key Battleground -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Chen Chu said she would not resort to playing the Taiwan identity card to mobilize voters because its use in the past has aggravated tensions and polarized society. Instead, her team plans to launch a last minute emotional appeal to energize voters and raise voter turnout. The KMT's Huang, however, said he fully expects the DPP to pull out some last minute surprises because it cannot afford to lose this battle in what has come to be seen as a DPP stronghold. Although unsure of what the DPP might do, Huang said his campaign is preparing to respond quickly to last minute TAIPEI 00003960 002 OF 002 attacks. Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan in an earlier meeting (reftel) had indicated that a DPP loss in Kaohsiung would lead to DPP Chairman You Shyi-kun's resignation and likely precipitate a power struggle within the party. Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The Kaohsiung election continues to be too close to call, despite the sense on the street that the KMT is poised to win. Both candidates will continue to fight to the bitter end because the election is still in play and out of concern that any last-minute minor fluctuations could tilt the outcome in either direction. THIELE YOUNG