DIRECTOR AND VICE PRESIDENT LU DISCUSS POLITICS,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003902

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2031
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: DIRECTOR AND VICE PRESIDENT LU DISCUSS POLITICS,
CONSTITUTIONAL REVISION, AND DEFENSE


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (S) Summary: Vice President Annette Lu told the Director
on November 16 that Kaohsiung DPP candidate Chen Chu's
campaign is going well although she is trailing slightly in
the polls following the recent corruption indictment of First
Lady Wu Shu-chen, which implicated President Chen. The DPP
needs to stay unified and to continue pursuing reform, Lu
stressed, adding that party supporters overwhelmingly opposed
the recent protest resignations of two DPP legislators. In
response to the Director's question about calls for President
Chen to take a temporary leave of office, Lu pointed
immediately to a clause in the constitution that the Vice
President shall act for the President if the latter is unable
to attend to office for any cause. Noting flaws in Taiwan's
existing constitutional government structure, Lu urged the
U.S. not to worry about possible revisions, as this process
would take many years. Lu said that special treatment by the
PRC may have influenced the views of some in the opposition
camp, undermining their support for a strong Taiwan defense.
The Vice President also discussed her invitation to members
of the U.S. Congress to attend a Pacific Congressional Caucus
and Asia Pacific Security workshop Taiwan is hosting December
9-10. End Summary.

December 9 Mayoral Elections
--------------


2. (C) During a meeting with the Director on November 16,
Vice President Annette Lu said that the campaign of
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Chen Chu in
Kaohsiung is going well. The charismatic Chen Chu has been
active in politics since age nineteen, Lu noted, adding that
they had known each other since being in jail together after
the 1979 Kaohsiung Incident. The recent indictment of First
Lady Wu Shu-chen, which implicated President Chen, has had
only a slight influence on the election, Lu suggested. Yet
Chen Chu is now trailing Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Huang
Chun-ying by only about 4-5 percentage points. Lu added that
she doubts the accuracy of many Taiwan polls because of their
high non-response rates, sometimes over 40 percent. Asked
about the Taipei election, Lu declined to offer a prediction,
adding that her own experience suggested that results could
only be predicted in the final week before an election.

First Family Corruption Indictment and the DPP
-------------- -


3. (C) In response to the Director's question about the
influence on the DPP of the recent indictment of Madame Wu,
Lu stressed the need for party unity. Noting the recent
resignation from the Legislative Yuan (LY) by two prominent
DPP legislators, Lu said that the response of DPP supporters
to the legislators' action had been overwhelmingly negative,
according to a report submitted to the DPP Central Standing
Committee. Maintaining party unity does not mean refusing to
reflect and reform, Lu continued, and she pointed to earlier
steps taken by the DPP to set up an ethics committee and
require candidates to sign an integrity oath. Also, Lu
added, the party has sent Wu Shu-chen's case to its Central
Review Committee and it has proposed sunshine legislation in
the LY.


4. (C) Noting calls by the opposition to investigate her use
of special funds when Taoyuan Magistrate, Lu said that she
had just been following the established practices of the
time. She added that any such investigations should move
from top to bottom, starting with past and present top
leaders and officials rather than county magistrates. If
Prosecutor Chen Jui-jen had spent more time on his
investigation and looked at the overall picture, including
the practices of past presidents, he would have come up with
a fairer conclusion regarding President Chen, Lu suggested.
According to the Vice President, the KMT had not handled well
the transition to DPP rule in 2000, because it had never
expected to lose the election. So, for example, there was no
official residence for her use in 2000, and the KMT had
turned various earlier senior residences into memorials

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rather than making them available to the DPP government.


5. (S) The Director asked Lu about recent statements by
former Academia Sinica head Lee Yuan-tseh and former
Presidential Office Secretary-General Chen Shih-meng
suggesting that President Chen should consider stepping down
or taking a leave of absence. Taiwan is a democracy, Lu
stressed, and the government respects what people say.
However, Chen Shih-meng is not a legal scholar and his
proposal about the President temporarily leaving office is
not necessarily in line with the law. The question about
leave of absence is very sensitive, Lu stressed. She
underlined two phrases in Article 49 of the Constitution: 1)
"In case the office of the President should become vacant,
the Vice President shall succeed until the expiration of the
original presidential term," and 2) "In case the President
should be unable to attend to office due to any cause, the
Vice President shall act for the President." (Note: Lu's
assistant just happened to have with her a copy of the
relevant portion of the constitution. End Note.) Lu noted
that the only two past examples of a Vice President taking
over were Lee Teng-hui's becoming President upon the death of
Chiang Ching-kuo, and Chiang Kai-shek's stepping down under
pressure from the Communists in 1949. The political
atmosphere was very different then, however, Lu added.

Constitutional Revision
--------------


6. (C) Lu said that she had not participated in any of the
DPP discussions on constitutional revision. As Vice
President for six years, however, she had observed President
Chen's frustration with the existing constitution. Lu noted
that in Taiwan the President must go through a difficult
election process, but then has little power, which instead
lies in the hands of an appointed premier, who controls
cabinet appointments and the government budget. The
President is directly responsible only for defense, foreign
affairs, and Mainland affairs, and has only indirect control
in other areas. The situation will be difficult for any
future President unless the constitution is revised to make
the government more effective. President Chen has emphasized
the need for education about the constitution. The
constitutional revision process will not happen during "our
term" and may need many years. Therefore, Lu urged the U.S.
not to be "nervous."

Defense
--------------


7. (C) The Director underscored the importance for Taiwan
legislators and others to put politics aside and cooperate in
the effort to strengthen Taiwan's defense. Lu responded that
among Taiwan's government officials she had spoken out the
most about defense needs, frequently using a power point
presentation to highlight the PRC missile threat and the
growing gap between PRC and Taiwan defense budgets. Lu
suggested that growing Taiwan business and other involvement
in the PRC was creating a psychological impediment. People
who are treated well on the Mainland and identify China as
the "motherland" would find it difficult to agree if the
government asked them to use Taiwan's money to buy U.S.
weapons to deploy against China. This is a very serious
problem. How can we expect the opposition to support a
strong defense when Honorary KMT Chairman Lien Chan is
treated as an "emperor" in China, Lu asked rhetorically. Lu
agreed fully with the Director's points on the need to move
quickly on the arms procurement issue.

Invitation to Members of Congress
--------------


8. (C) Lu said President Chen had instructed her to hold
meetings on Taiwan's diplomacy to reexamine past ideas. On
December 9, she noted, Taiwan will host a meeting of the
Pacific Congressional Caucus, to be followed by an
Asia-Pacific Security workshop on December 10, with
parliamentarians from many countries attending. Taiwan has
invited 10 members of the U.S. Congress, including

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Congressman Charles Rangel, the U.S. delegate to the
Democratic Pacific Union, and Congressman Tom Lantos. The
activity is nonpartisan, and Wang Jin-pyng is chair. Lu
expressed hope that AIT could attend the Asia-Pacific
Security meeting on December 10.

Comment
--------------


9. (S) Lu was on her best behavior, professing strong
loyalty to her boss and disparaging efforts to force
President Chen out of office. Thus we were somewhat
surprised when she handily pulled out a copy of the
constitution to cite chapter and verse as to the
circumstances under which the President might have to
temporarily take a leave of absence and be replaced by his
Vice. This follows a number of recent public calls by
erstwhile Chen supporters for the embattled President Chen to
do just this. Lu's profession of loyalty contrasts with
rumors that she is quietly planning for the possibility of
moving up to replace Chen. She appeared as isolated as ever
from President Chen and his inner circle.
YOUNG