DIRECTOR AND VICE PRESIDENT LU DISCUSS POLITICS,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003902 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2031 TAGS: PGOV PREL TW SUBJECT: DIRECTOR AND VICE PRESIDENT LU DISCUSS POLITICS, CONSTITUTIONAL REVISION, AND DEFENSE Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (S) Summary: Vice President Annette Lu told the Director on November 16 that Kaohsiung DPP candidate Chen Chu's campaign is going well although she is trailing slightly in the polls following the recent corruption indictment of First Lady Wu Shu-chen, which implicated President Chen. The DPP needs to stay unified and to continue pursuing reform, Lu stressed, adding that party supporters overwhelmingly opposed the recent protest resignations of two DPP legislators. In response to the Director's question about calls for President Chen to take a temporary leave of office, Lu pointed immediately to a clause in the constitution that the Vice President shall act for the President if the latter is unable to attend to office for any cause. Noting flaws in Taiwan's existing constitutional government structure, Lu urged the U.S. not to worry about possible revisions, as this process would take many years. Lu said that special treatment by the PRC may have influenced the views of some in the opposition camp, undermining their support for a strong Taiwan defense. The Vice President also discussed her invitation to members of the U.S. Congress to attend a Pacific Congressional Caucus and Asia Pacific Security workshop Taiwan is hosting December 9-10. End Summary. December 9 Mayoral Elections -------------- ¶2. (C) During a meeting with the Director on November 16, Vice President Annette Lu said that the campaign of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Chen Chu in Kaohsiung is going well. The charismatic Chen Chu has been active in politics since age nineteen, Lu noted, adding that they had known each other since being in jail together after the 1979 Kaohsiung Incident. The recent indictment of First Lady Wu Shu-chen, which implicated President Chen, has had only a slight influence on the election, Lu suggested. Yet Chen Chu is now trailing Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Huang Chun-ying by only about 4-5 percentage points. Lu added that she doubts the accuracy of many Taiwan polls because of their high non-response rates, sometimes over 40 percent. Asked about the Taipei election, Lu declined to offer a prediction, adding that her own experience suggested that results could only be predicted in the final week before an election. First Family Corruption Indictment and the DPP -------------- - ¶3. (C) In response to the Director's question about the influence on the DPP of the recent indictment of Madame Wu, Lu stressed the need for party unity. Noting the recent resignation from the Legislative Yuan (LY) by two prominent DPP legislators, Lu said that the response of DPP supporters to the legislators' action had been overwhelmingly negative, according to a report submitted to the DPP Central Standing Committee. Maintaining party unity does not mean refusing to reflect and reform, Lu continued, and she pointed to earlier steps taken by the DPP to set up an ethics committee and require candidates to sign an integrity oath. Also, Lu added, the party has sent Wu Shu-chen's case to its Central Review Committee and it has proposed sunshine legislation in the LY. ¶4. (C) Noting calls by the opposition to investigate her use of special funds when Taoyuan Magistrate, Lu said that she had just been following the established practices of the time. She added that any such investigations should move from top to bottom, starting with past and present top leaders and officials rather than county magistrates. If Prosecutor Chen Jui-jen had spent more time on his investigation and looked at the overall picture, including the practices of past presidents, he would have come up with a fairer conclusion regarding President Chen, Lu suggested. According to the Vice President, the KMT had not handled well the transition to DPP rule in 2000, because it had never expected to lose the election. So, for example, there was no official residence for her use in 2000, and the KMT had turned various earlier senior residences into memorials TAIPEI 00003902 002 OF 003 rather than making them available to the DPP government. ¶5. (S) The Director asked Lu about recent statements by former Academia Sinica head Lee Yuan-tseh and former Presidential Office Secretary-General Chen Shih-meng suggesting that President Chen should consider stepping down or taking a leave of absence. Taiwan is a democracy, Lu stressed, and the government respects what people say. However, Chen Shih-meng is not a legal scholar and his proposal about the President temporarily leaving office is not necessarily in line with the law. The question about leave of absence is very sensitive, Lu stressed. She underlined two phrases in Article 49 of the Constitution: 1) "In case the office of the President should become vacant, the Vice President shall succeed until the expiration of the original presidential term," and 2) "In case the President should be unable to attend to office due to any cause, the Vice President shall act for the President." (Note: Lu's assistant just happened to have with her a copy of the relevant portion of the constitution. End Note.) Lu noted that the only two past examples of a Vice President taking over were Lee Teng-hui's becoming President upon the death of Chiang Ching-kuo, and Chiang Kai-shek's stepping down under pressure from the Communists in 1949. The political atmosphere was very different then, however, Lu added. Constitutional Revision -------------- ¶6. (C) Lu said that she had not participated in any of the DPP discussions on constitutional revision. As Vice President for six years, however, she had observed President Chen's frustration with the existing constitution. Lu noted that in Taiwan the President must go through a difficult election process, but then has little power, which instead lies in the hands of an appointed premier, who controls cabinet appointments and the government budget. The President is directly responsible only for defense, foreign affairs, and Mainland affairs, and has only indirect control in other areas. The situation will be difficult for any future President unless the constitution is revised to make the government more effective. President Chen has emphasized the need for education about the constitution. The constitutional revision process will not happen during "our term" and may need many years. Therefore, Lu urged the U.S. not to be "nervous." Defense -------------- ¶7. (C) The Director underscored the importance for Taiwan legislators and others to put politics aside and cooperate in the effort to strengthen Taiwan's defense. Lu responded that among Taiwan's government officials she had spoken out the most about defense needs, frequently using a power point presentation to highlight the PRC missile threat and the growing gap between PRC and Taiwan defense budgets. Lu suggested that growing Taiwan business and other involvement in the PRC was creating a psychological impediment. People who are treated well on the Mainland and identify China as the "motherland" would find it difficult to agree if the government asked them to use Taiwan's money to buy U.S. weapons to deploy against China. This is a very serious problem. How can we expect the opposition to support a strong defense when Honorary KMT Chairman Lien Chan is treated as an "emperor" in China, Lu asked rhetorically. Lu agreed fully with the Director's points on the need to move quickly on the arms procurement issue. Invitation to Members of Congress -------------- ¶8. (C) Lu said President Chen had instructed her to hold meetings on Taiwan's diplomacy to reexamine past ideas. On December 9, she noted, Taiwan will host a meeting of the Pacific Congressional Caucus, to be followed by an Asia-Pacific Security workshop on December 10, with parliamentarians from many countries attending. Taiwan has invited 10 members of the U.S. Congress, including TAIPEI 00003902 003 OF 003 Congressman Charles Rangel, the U.S. delegate to the Democratic Pacific Union, and Congressman Tom Lantos. The activity is nonpartisan, and Wang Jin-pyng is chair. Lu expressed hope that AIT could attend the Asia-Pacific Security meeting on December 10. Comment -------------- ¶9. (S) Lu was on her best behavior, professing strong loyalty to her boss and disparaging efforts to force President Chen out of office. Thus we were somewhat surprised when she handily pulled out a copy of the constitution to cite chapter and verse as to the circumstances under which the President might have to temporarily take a leave of absence and be replaced by his Vice. This follows a number of recent public calls by erstwhile Chen supporters for the embattled President Chen to do just this. Lu's profession of loyalty contrasts with rumors that she is quietly planning for the possibility of moving up to replace Chen. She appeared as isolated as ever from President Chen and his inner circle. YOUNG